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USACUSA Compression Partners, LPBuy Wait6.5·$26.08-2.43%
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USA Compression Partners, LP (USAC) Stock Analysis

Temp Headwind edge

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Equipment & Services

Wait for pullback to $25.21. Weak momentum; also recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $26.08. Engine's entry $25.21 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Supplier: Caterpillar Inc.; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

USA Compression Partners is one of the largest US independent providers of natural gas compression services with ~3.9M horsepower across unconventional resource plays, operated as a Delaware LP managed by a General Partner wholly owned by Energy Transfer. Revenue comes from... Read more

$26.08+18.9% A.UpsideScore 6.5/10#1 of 30 Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield6.59%
IncomeYield7.86%(5y avg 9.99%)Payout214.29%at-risk
Entry $25.21(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $23.31Target $29.94(resistance)A.R:R -0.2:1Setup A.R:R 2.7:1
Analyst target$29.67+13.8%6 analysts
$29.94our TP
$26.08price
$29.67mean
$33

Wait for pullback to $25.21. Weak momentum; also recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $26.08. Engine's entry $25.21 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Supplier: Caterpillar Inc.; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.16, quality 8.1/10, growth 10.0/10). Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, earnings proximity 55d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Aug 10, 202655d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Positive news sentiment (+0.67)
High-quality business
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: Caterpillar Inc.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 9.5): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)27.3
P/E (Fwd)15.0
Mkt Cap$3.9B
EV/EBITDA10.6
Profit Mgn11.9%
ROE84.8%
Rev Growth35.1%
Beta0.17
Dividend7.86%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C17.83bearish
IV56%elevated
Max Pain$13-52.1% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomerten largest customers46%
    10-K Item 1: 'Our ten largest customers accounted for approximately 46%, 41%, and 39% of our total revenues for the years ended December 31, 2025, 2024, and 2023, respectively'
  • HIGHSupplierCaterpillar Inc.
    10-K Item 1A: 'The substantial majority of the components for our natural gas compression equipment are supplied by Caterpillar Inc., Cummins Inc., INNIO Waukesha, and TECO-Westinghouse for engines'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-30Item 5.02LOW
    On April 28, 2026, Energy Transfer LP appointed Jim S. Holotik to serve as a director on the board of the General Partner. As an outside director, he will receive standard director compensation including 2,500 phantom units upon appointment.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-10Item 5.02LOW
    On March 5, 2026, Thomas P. Mason announced his resignation from the board of directors of USA Compression GP, LLC, effective March 31, 2026. No disagreement with the General Partner or Partnership cited. No successor named.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
3.4
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
8.5
Uptrend pullback (RSI 30) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.4<4.5A.R:R -0.2=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentInsider activity: OKEARNINGS PROXIMITY 55d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
30 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $26.01Resistance $30.55

Price Targets

$23
$25
$30
A.Upside+14.8%
A.R:R-0.2:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)2.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.6%
Max %1.2%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-1.3% upside)
! momentum at 3.4 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-10 (55d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is USAC stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $25.21. Weak momentum; also recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $26.08. Engine's entry $25.21 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Supplier: Caterpillar Inc.; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.16, quality 8.1/10, growth 10.0/10). Target $29.94 (+14.8%), stop $23.31 (−11.9%), Setup A.R:R 2.7:1. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the USAC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $29.94 (+18.9% upside). Target $29.94 (+14.8%), stop $23.31 (−11.9%), Setup A.R:R 2.7:1. Stop-loss: $23.31.

What are the risks of investing in USAC?

Concentration risk — Supplier: Caterpillar Inc.; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 9.5): -1.5.

Is USAC overvalued or undervalued?

USA Compression Partners, LP trades at a P/E of 27.3 (forward 15.0). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about USAC?

13 analysts cover USAC with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $30.

What does USA Compression Partners, LP do?USA Compression Partners is one of the largest US independent providers of natural gas compression services with ~3.9M...

USA Compression Partners is one of the largest US independent providers of natural gas compression services with ~3.9M horsepower across unconventional resource plays, operated as a Delaware LP managed by a General Partner wholly owned by Energy Transfer. Revenue comes from fixed monthly service fees under contracts with ~260 oil and gas companies; top 10 customers represent 46% of 2025 revenues.

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