Value
4.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 22.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.18
URG · Why this verdict
Why Ur Energy (URG) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock offers a favorable risk/reward setup with an asymmetry ratio of 3.34 and 50.4% upside to its take-profit target against a 6.7% downside to its stop-loss. Targets | The stock should advance toward its $2.03 take-profit target without breaching the $1.26 stop-loss over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe favorable asymmetry is calculated off an analyst price target even though the stock failed the engine's momentum gate, so the setup may not materialize if underlying weakness persists. | ||
The quality score of 2.5 sits well below the engine's 4.0 minimum floor, triggering an exit recommendation, with a weak Piotroski F-Score of 3 out of 9 and no discernible competitive moat. Quality breakdown | The quality score should climb back above the 4.0 floor and the Piotroski F-Score should improve above 5 over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterPiotroski and moat metrics are structurally weak for early-stage uranium developers, so the floor breach may reflect sector characteristics rather than deteriorating fundamentals. | ||
The stock failed the engine's momentum gate at 2.6 against a 4.5 threshold, though the underlying notes show the 200-day moving average is still rising at +2.1% over 30 days, suggesting a pullback within an uptrend rather than a confirmed breakdown. Momentum breakdown | The momentum score should recover above 4.5 over the next 12 months for the gate to clear. | →Stable |
| CounterFalling on-balance volume signals distribution that could presage a deeper breakdown rather than a temporary pullback. | ||
The company has missed or come in below estimates in each of the last 3 reported quarters with an average surprise of -135%, indicating a pattern of underperforming expectations. Earnings | The company should beat or meet earnings estimates in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters to break the miss streak. | →Stable |
| CounterSmall absolute EPS misses on a pre-revenue-scale uranium developer can produce large percentage surprises without indicating real operational deterioration. | ||
Ur Energy ranks near the bottom of its peer group on quality (a rank of 0.0) and second-to-bottom on value (a rank of 2.0), underscoring relative weakness versus uranium-sector peers. Components | The quality peer rank should climb above 3.0 over the next 12 months to indicate improving relative standing. | →Stable |
| CounterPeer ranks are relative, so if the entire uranium peer group is compressing on quality, a low rank may reflect sector-wide conditions rather than company-specific weakness. | ||
The stock offers a favorable risk/reward setup with an asymmetry ratio of 3.34 and 50.4% upside to its take-profit target against a 6.7% downside to its stop-loss.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- The stock should advance toward its $2.03 take-profit target without breaching the $1.26 stop-loss over the next 12 months.
CounterThe favorable asymmetry is calculated off an analyst price target even though the stock failed the engine's momentum gate, so the setup may not materialize if underlying weakness persists.
The quality score of 2.5 sits well below the engine's 4.0 minimum floor, triggering an exit recommendation, with a weak Piotroski F-Score of 3 out of 9 and no discernible competitive moat.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The quality score should climb back above the 4.0 floor and the Piotroski F-Score should improve above 5 over the next 12 months.
CounterPiotroski and moat metrics are structurally weak for early-stage uranium developers, so the floor breach may reflect sector characteristics rather than deteriorating fundamentals.
The stock failed the engine's momentum gate at 2.6 against a 4.5 threshold, though the underlying notes show the 200-day moving average is still rising at +2.1% over 30 days, suggesting a pullback within an uptrend rather than a confirmed breakdown.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The momentum score should recover above 4.5 over the next 12 months for the gate to clear.
CounterFalling on-balance volume signals distribution that could presage a deeper breakdown rather than a temporary pullback.
The company has missed or come in below estimates in each of the last 3 reported quarters with an average surprise of -135%, indicating a pattern of underperforming expectations.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The company should beat or meet earnings estimates in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters to break the miss streak.
CounterSmall absolute EPS misses on a pre-revenue-scale uranium developer can produce large percentage surprises without indicating real operational deterioration.
Ur Energy ranks near the bottom of its peer group on quality (a rank of 0.0) and second-to-bottom on value (a rank of 2.0), underscoring relative weakness versus uranium-sector peers.
→StableComponents
- Expectation
- The quality peer rank should climb above 3.0 over the next 12 months to indicate improving relative standing.
CounterPeer ranks are relative, so if the entire uranium peer group is compressing on quality, a low rank may reflect sector-wide conditions rather than company-specific weakness.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Ur Energy presents an asymmetric risk/reward setup (3.34x, 50% upside to target vs 7% downside to stop) but carries a quality score below the engine's floor, a failed momentum gate, a 3-quarter earnings miss streak, and weak peer rankings on both quality and value.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.5/10data confidence 86%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.6 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 3.2 |
| Piotroski F | 3.3 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -210% of revenue
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
2.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 3.8 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 22, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.7%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
8.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.5 |
| Analyst rating | 7.7 |
| Price target | 9.9 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (7.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 83%
Insider
7.5/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
2.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.0 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
Technical
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.2 |
| support resistance | 9.6 |
| 52w position | 0.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.8 |
| days to cover | 7.9 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| beta | 7.9 |
| debt equity | 4.9 |
| news risk | 5.5 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 0B/3M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:3.9>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:28d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:2.0<4.5
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
3.93
Upside
+58.9%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -46% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Growth at 10.0 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:2.0<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Sentiment at 8.0, and Insider at 7.5; the weakest are Momentum at 2.0, Peer rank at 2.3, and Quality at 2.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.93 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Asymmetric Risk Reward Setup
Trip ifStock price falls below the $1.26 stop-loss level, a decline of more than 6% from the current $1.35.
- P2Quality Floor Breach
Trip ifQuality score rises above 4.0 from the current 2.5.
- P3Momentum Gate Failure
Trip if200-day moving average slope turns negative, falling below 0%/30d from the current +2.1%/30d.
- P4Earnings Miss Streak
Trip ifEarnings surprise rises above 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Weak Peer Group Standing
Trip ifQuality peer rank rises above 3.0 from the current 0.0.