Value
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 1.4 |
| P/S | 8.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.5 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.01
UPST · Why this verdict
Why Upstart Holdings (UPST) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.3 |
| ROA | 1.2 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 0.4 |
| Net margin | 2.1 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -633% FCF/NI
- ▸Rule of 40: 18 (fail)
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 45% YoY
Momentum
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 8.5 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 3.4 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -13.7%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.3 |
| Price target | 8.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 35%
Insider
5.5/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 8.0 |
| insider conviction | 3.3 |
| holder change | 5.3 |
- ▸Notable insider buying — $5,626,699 (0.198% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.5 |
| quality rank | 1.1 |
| growth rank | 9.0 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.3 |
| support resistance | 5.8 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
1.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 0.0 |
| days to cover | 5.2 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 3.3 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 2.4 |
| debt equity | 2.3 |
- ▸High short interest: 32%
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.51
- ▸High IV: 91%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:1.6>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:58d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.7<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
1.55
Upside
+21.7%
Downside
14.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRECOVERY — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 51
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — Beta 2.28>1.3, MCap $2.8B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Growth at 10.0 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:3.7<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Sentiment at 7.2, and Value at 6.7; the weakest are Risk (lower is worse) at 1.9, Momentum at 3.7, and Quality at 3.7. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.55 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.