Value
8.2/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.1 |
| P/S | 7.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.4 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.44
- ▸Attractively valued
UNTY · Why this verdict
Why Unity Bancorp (UNTY) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Unity Bancorp is a cheap, high-margin regional bank (forward P/E 9.1x, 46% margins) in a breakout, but real-estate loans make up 96% of its book and the price is within 2.7% of the analyst target.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Real-estate-secured loans are 96.0% of the loan portfolio and commercial real estate loans are 56.6%, two high-severity concentration risks. Bear case | Commercial real estate loans fall below 50% of the portfolio or credit metrics stay clean over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA commercial real estate downturn would hit both concentrations at once, with little diversification to cushion losses. | ||
The stock is attractively valued, with a forward P/E of 9.1x and a PEG ratio of 0.44. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E stays below 11x as earnings grow over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRegional bank multiples are low because of credit-cycle risk, so cheap valuation may not close if loan quality weakens. | ||
Profitability is strong, with 46% margins and a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and the bank ranks well above peers on ROE. Quality breakdown | Piotroski F-Score holds at 7 or higher and margins stay above 40%. | →Stable |
| CounterReturn on assets is only 1.3 out of 10 on the scoring scale, so headline margins may overstate how much profit each dollar of assets generates. | ||
The price of $58.14 is only 2.7% below the $59.68 analyst target against 8.8% downside, a reward-to-risk of about 0.3. Targets | Analysts raise the target above $65 as earnings beats continue. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAnalyst coverage is light (5 analysts) and targets lag price in a breakout, so upside could be understated. | ||
A golden cross and a price above all moving averages give momentum of 7.2 out of 10, with 3 earnings beats in the last 4 quarters. Momentum breakdown | Price holds above the 200-day moving average with EPS beating in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe Bollinger score is 0.0, showing the price is stretched, and one miss in 4 quarters shows beats are not guaranteed. | ||
Real-estate-secured loans are 96.0% of the loan portfolio and commercial real estate loans are 56.6%, two high-severity concentration risks.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Commercial real estate loans fall below 50% of the portfolio or credit metrics stay clean over 12 months.
CounterA commercial real estate downturn would hit both concentrations at once, with little diversification to cushion losses.
The stock is attractively valued, with a forward P/E of 9.1x and a PEG ratio of 0.44.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E stays below 11x as earnings grow over the next 12 months.
CounterRegional bank multiples are low because of credit-cycle risk, so cheap valuation may not close if loan quality weakens.
Profitability is strong, with 46% margins and a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and the bank ranks well above peers on ROE.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski F-Score holds at 7 or higher and margins stay above 40%.
CounterReturn on assets is only 1.3 out of 10 on the scoring scale, so headline margins may overstate how much profit each dollar of assets generates.
The price of $58.14 is only 2.7% below the $59.68 analyst target against 8.8% downside, a reward-to-risk of about 0.3.
↓DeterioratingTargets
- Expectation
- Analysts raise the target above $65 as earnings beats continue.
CounterAnalyst coverage is light (5 analysts) and targets lag price in a breakout, so upside could be understated.
A golden cross and a price above all moving averages give momentum of 7.2 out of 10, with 3 earnings beats in the last 4 quarters.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price holds above the 200-day moving average with EPS beating in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters.
CounterThe Bollinger score is 0.0, showing the price is stretched, and one miss in 4 quarters shows beats are not guaranteed.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.7 |
| ROA | 1.3 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.9 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 46%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
5.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.1 |
| EPS growth | 6.1 |
Momentum
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 3.6 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.3 |
| Price target | 7.6 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (5.0) — signal dampened
Insider
4.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.4 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $461,172 (0.079% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.6 |
| quality rank | 9.4 |
| growth rank | 4.8 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.8 |
| support resistance | 2.2 |
| 52w position | 8.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.6 |
| days to cover | 7.3 |
| volatility | 6.8 |
| put call | 6.7 |
| implied vol | 5.5 |
| beta | 9.1 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.2 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.7>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:74d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.4<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.42
Upside
+3.4%
Downside
8.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 64, MACD bullish
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.6B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.6B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.7>=5.5. Top dim: Value at 8.2; weakest: Insider at 4.0. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.2, Risk (lower is worse) at 7.3, and Sentiment at 6.8; the weakest are Insider at 4.0, Technical at 4.2, and Catalyst at 5.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.42 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Bank Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E exceeds 12x from the current 9.1x.
- P2Strong Margins And Quality
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 6 from the current 7.
- P3Real Estate Loan Concentration
Trip ifCommercial real estate loans exceed 65% of the portfolio from the current 56.6%.
- P4Analyst Target Nearly Reached
Trip ifPrice falls more than 4.7% to the $55.40 stop level.
- P5Breakout Momentum Earnings Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.