Value
6.3/10data confidence 60%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 6.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.7 |
| p ocf | 8.3 |
- ▸P/OCF: 10.6x (FFO proxy — REITs gated off P/E)
UHT · Why this verdict
Why Universal Health Realty Income (UHT) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quality is high at 7.5 out of 10, with 19% margins, free cash flow at 239% of net income and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9. Quality breakdown | Piotroski F-Score holds at 7 or higher and cash conversion stays above 100%. | →Stable |
| CounterREIT cash flow metrics ignore heavy depreciation and recurring capital spending, and high leverage (D/E 2.7) reduces the margin for error. | ||
The price of $37.67 is 0.7% above the $37.40 analyst target, leaving no analyst-implied upside against 5.1% downside. Targets | Analysts raise the target above $41, restoring at least 10% of upside. | →Stable |
| CounterTargets for REITs tend to follow price, so a new higher target may come only after the stock has already moved up. | ||
A leverage penalty applies at a debt-to-equity of 2.7, and the dividend is flagged as a high-yield-but-unsafe yield trap. Bear case | Debt-to-equity falls below 2.0 and the dividend is held flat or raised. | ↑Improving |
| CounterHealthcare REIT leases are long-dated and stable, so leverage may be sustainable and the yield warning overly cautious. | ||
Institutions are reducing their holdings and the put/call ratio is elevated at 5.50, a bearish ownership and options signal. Key risks | Institutional holder-change score recovers above 4 from 1.1 and the put/call ratio falls below 2. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA high put/call ratio on an illiquid small-cap can be driven by a few hedging positions and not reflect broad bearishness. | ||
The price is below its 200-day average but the average is still rising, a pullback in an uptrend, with earnings due in 2 days after a 2-beat, 2-miss record. Momentum breakdown | EPS surprise turns positive and price reclaims the 200-day average. | ↑Improving |
| CounterEarnings history is split evenly, so the binary event in 2 days could hit a stock with only 5.1% cushion to the stop. | ||
Quality is high at 7.5 out of 10, with 19% margins, free cash flow at 239% of net income and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski F-Score holds at 7 or higher and cash conversion stays above 100%.
CounterREIT cash flow metrics ignore heavy depreciation and recurring capital spending, and high leverage (D/E 2.7) reduces the margin for error.
The price of $37.67 is 0.7% above the $37.40 analyst target, leaving no analyst-implied upside against 5.1% downside.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- Analysts raise the target above $41, restoring at least 10% of upside.
CounterTargets for REITs tend to follow price, so a new higher target may come only after the stock has already moved up.
A leverage penalty applies at a debt-to-equity of 2.7, and the dividend is flagged as a high-yield-but-unsafe yield trap.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Debt-to-equity falls below 2.0 and the dividend is held flat or raised.
CounterHealthcare REIT leases are long-dated and stable, so leverage may be sustainable and the yield warning overly cautious.
Institutions are reducing their holdings and the put/call ratio is elevated at 5.50, a bearish ownership and options signal.
↑ImprovingKey risks
- Expectation
- Institutional holder-change score recovers above 4 from 1.1 and the put/call ratio falls below 2.
CounterA high put/call ratio on an illiquid small-cap can be driven by a few hedging positions and not reflect broad bearishness.
The price is below its 200-day average but the average is still rising, a pullback in an uptrend, with earnings due in 2 days after a 2-beat, 2-miss record.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- EPS surprise turns positive and price reclaims the 200-day average.
CounterEarnings history is split evenly, so the binary event in 2 days could hit a stock with only 5.1% cushion to the stop.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.2 |
| ROA | 2.8 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 9.5 |
| Current ratio | 5.6 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Rule of 40 | 7.8 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 19%
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 239% FCF/NI
- ▸Rule of 40: 46 (pass)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
5.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.7 |
| EPS growth | 8.7 |
Momentum
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 6.6 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.5 |
| Volume | 3.3 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope flat
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.7 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.40 (n=1)
Insider
3.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 1.1 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions reducing
Peer rank
3.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.9 |
| quality rank | 7.3 |
| growth rank | 1.3 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.9 |
| support resistance | 7.6 |
| 52w position | 6.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.4 |
| days to cover | 8.9 |
| volatility | 5.4 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 4.4 |
| beta | 7.9 |
| debt equity | 2.3 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 5.50
Catalyst
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 7.0 |
| dividend safety | 4.8 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:118d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:3.4<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.3<1.5@spot
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.31
Upside
+1.7%
Downside
5.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 44
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 2.9 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Quality at 7.5) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:3.4<4.5, ASYMMETRY:0.3<1.5@spot, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.31 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 7.5, Technical at 7.2, and Sentiment at 6.5; the weakest are Insider at 3.0, Peer rank at 3.4, and Momentum at 3.4. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.31 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Quality Healthcare Reit
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 6 from the current 8.
- P2Analyst Target Reached
Trip ifPrice falls more than 5.1% to the $33.46 stop level.
- P3Leverage And Yield Trap Risk
Trip ifDebt-to-equity exceeds 3.5 from the current 2.7 or the dividend is cut by more than 20%.
- P4Institutions Reducing And Hedging
Trip ifPut/call ratio exceeds 8 from the current 5.50.
- P5Pullback In Uptrend Before Earnings
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.