Value
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.1 |
| P/S | 8.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.4 |
| PEG | 6.7 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 13.8x
- ▸PEG: 1.06
TRU · Why this verdict
Why TransUnion (TRU) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
TransUnion has beaten EPS estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise score of 5.3 out of 10. Catalyst breakdown | Beats continue over the next 12 months, supporting estimate revisions upward. | →Stable |
| CounterWith earnings in 3 days and the stock already overbought, even a modest beat may not be enough to hold the price. | ||
Quality is strong, with a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 and 15% margins, and the company is an industry growth leader with earnings growth scoring 8.4 out of 10. Quality breakdown | Piotroski F-Score holds at 7 or higher and revenue growth remains above peer average. | ↑Improving |
| CounterPeer-ranked quality is low at 1.8 out of 10, and leverage (D/E 1.1) already triggers a scoring penalty. | ||
The price of $81.48 is 1.5% above the analyst target, so there is no analyst-implied upside while downside to the stop is 15.0%. Targets | Analysts raise targets above the current price, restoring positive upside of at least 10%. | ↑Improving |
| CounterTargets lag price, and strong earnings could lift them quickly, so the lack of upside may be temporary. | ||
The stock is overbought with an RSI of 83 while the 200-day average slope is flat to negative, a late-cycle distribution risk. Momentum breakdown | RSI cools below 70 without a drop in price, resetting the setup. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterStrong momentum (MACD and on-balance volume at 10 out of 10) can keep overbought stocks rising for extended periods. | ||
Institutions are accumulating while insiders sold a modest $5.1M (0.033% of market cap), giving a mixed ownership signal. Insider breakdown | Institutional holder-change score stays above 7 and insider selling stays under 0.1% of market cap. | →Stable |
| CounterInstitutions may be buying into strength that is already priced in, and insider conviction scores only 2 out of 10. | ||
TransUnion has beaten EPS estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise score of 5.3 out of 10.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Beats continue over the next 12 months, supporting estimate revisions upward.
CounterWith earnings in 3 days and the stock already overbought, even a modest beat may not be enough to hold the price.
Quality is strong, with a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 and 15% margins, and the company is an industry growth leader with earnings growth scoring 8.4 out of 10.
↑ImprovingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski F-Score holds at 7 or higher and revenue growth remains above peer average.
CounterPeer-ranked quality is low at 1.8 out of 10, and leverage (D/E 1.1) already triggers a scoring penalty.
The price of $81.48 is 1.5% above the analyst target, so there is no analyst-implied upside while downside to the stop is 15.0%.
↑ImprovingTargets
- Expectation
- Analysts raise targets above the current price, restoring positive upside of at least 10%.
CounterTargets lag price, and strong earnings could lift them quickly, so the lack of upside may be temporary.
The stock is overbought with an RSI of 83 while the 200-day average slope is flat to negative, a late-cycle distribution risk.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI cools below 70 without a drop in price, resetting the setup.
CounterStrong momentum (MACD and on-balance volume at 10 out of 10) can keep overbought stocks rising for extended periods.
Institutions are accumulating while insiders sold a modest $5.1M (0.033% of market cap), giving a mixed ownership signal.
→StableInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Institutional holder-change score stays above 7 and insider selling stays under 0.1% of market cap.
CounterInstitutions may be buying into strength that is already priced in, and insider conviction scores only 2 out of 10.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.7 |
| ROA | 3.7 |
| Gross margin | 7.8 |
| Op margin | 8.1 |
| Net margin | 7.9 |
| Current ratio | 7.1 |
| FCF quality | 9.0 |
| Moat | 6.9 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 16%
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 121% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
7.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.5 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.4 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 7.6 |
Insider
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 8.4 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $3,135,795 (0.022% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.1 |
| quality rank | 1.8 |
| growth rank | 5.8 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.7 |
| support resistance | 3.9 |
| 52w position | 7.0 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.3 |
| days to cover | 6.0 |
| volatility | 0.1 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 4.7 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| debt equity | 4.8 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸Above max pain $48
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.1 |
| dividend safety | 8.5 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 0.6% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:4.8>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.60
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:105d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.5<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
0.51
Upside
+7.6%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 66, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:4.8>=4.5. Top dim: Growth at 7.8; weakest: Peer rank at 4.6. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 7.8, Quality at 7.2, and Sentiment at 7.2; the weakest are Peer rank at 4.6, Momentum at 4.8, and Technical at 4.9. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.51 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Solid Quality And Growth
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 6 from the current 8.
- P3Analyst Target Already Exceeded
Trip ifPrice falls more than 15% to the $72.80 stop level, 10.7% below the entry target region.
- P4Overbought Late Cycle Risk
Trip ifRSI stays above 80 while price drops more than 7% from the current $81.48.
- P5Institutional Accumulation Moderate Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider 90-day selling exceeds 0.1% of market cap from the current 0.033%.