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TRNOTerreno Realty CorporationHold6.2·$72.33+0.82%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Terreno Realty Corporation is a high-quality industrial REIT with best-in-class 87% margins and strong growth credentials, but with the stock trading near its 52-week high above analyst targets, the near-term risk/reward is unfavorable despite the fundamentally compelling business.

Thesis pillars

  • Warehouse Concentration RiskDeteriorating
  • Valuation Above Analyst ConsensusImproving
  • Wide Moat Margin QualityStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Terreno Realty Corporation (TRNO) Stock Analysis

HoldGrowthModerate Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Industrial

Earnings in 6 days (2026-08-05). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $72.33, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Property Type: warehouse/distribution (80.5%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Terreno Realty owns and operates industrial real estate across six major coastal U.S. markets, with 309 buildings totaling approximately 19.8 million square feet at 96.1% leased to 683 customers as of December 31, 2025. Revenue comes from operating leases at infill locations in... Read more

$72.33-10.0% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#1 of 16 REIT - Industrial
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield2.97%
IncomeYield2.85%(5y avg 2.69%)Payout50.00%
Stop $68.55Target $77.36(resistance)A.R:R -1.2:1
Analyst target$72.35+0.0%17 analysts
$77.36our TP
$72.33price
$72.35mean
$56
$91

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $72.33, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Property Type: warehouse/distribution (80.5%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.50, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-31
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 20266d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Positive news sentiment (+1.00)
Strong growth profile
Outperforming peers
Risks
Concentration risk — Property Type: warehouse/distribution (80.5%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Earnings in 6 days (event risk)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)17.8
P/E (Fwd)41.2
Mkt Cap$7.6B
EV/EBITDA28.8
Profit Mgn86.5%
ROE10.4%
Rev Growth12.7%
Beta1.06
Dividend2.85%
Rating analysts24

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatWide

Options Flow

P/C0.40bullish
IV39%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHPropertywarehouse/distribution81%
    10-K Item 1: 'warehouse/distribution (approximately 80.5% of our total annualized base rent as of December 31, 2025)'
  • MEDIUMGeographicNew York City/Northern New Jersey27%
    10-K Item 1A: 'were located in New York City/Northern New Jersey, representing a combined percentage of approximately 26.6% of our total annualized base rent'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ps
0.0
Ev Ebitda
0.0
Analyst Target
4.0
P Ocf
4.1
P/OCF: 27.8x (FFO proxy — REITs gated off P/E)Expensive valuation
GatesA.R:R -1.2=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dMomentum 5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.0>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.50SEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
61 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $66.15Resistance $78.94

Price Targets

$69
$77
A.Upside-10.0%
A.R:R-1.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-10.0% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TRNO stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $72.33, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Property Type: warehouse/distribution (80.5%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $77.36 (+7.0%), stop $68.55 (−5.5%), A.R:R -1.2:1. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TRNO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $77.36 (-10.0% upside). Target $77.36 (+7.0%), stop $68.55 (−5.5%), A.R:R -1.2:1. Stop-loss: $68.55.

What are the risks of investing in TRNO?

Concentration risk — Property Type: warehouse/distribution (80.5%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Earnings in 6 days (event risk).

Is TRNO overvalued or undervalued?

Terreno Realty Corporation trades at a P/E of 17.8 (forward 41.2). TrendMatrix value score: 2.9/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about TRNO?

24 analysts cover TRNO with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $72.

What does Terreno Realty Corporation do?Terreno Realty owns and operates industrial real estate across six major coastal U.S. markets, with 309 buildings...

Terreno Realty owns and operates industrial real estate across six major coastal U.S. markets, with 309 buildings totaling approximately 19.8 million square feet at 96.1% leased to 683 customers as of December 31, 2025. Revenue comes from operating leases at infill locations in supply-constrained submarkets; warehouse/distribution properties represent 80.5% of annualized base rent, with improved land at 10.1%, transshipment at 6.0%, and flex at 3.4%.

Related stocks: FR (First Industrial Realty Trust, ) · NSA (National Storage Affiliates Tru) · EGP (EastGroup Properties, Inc.) · SMA (SmartStop Self Storage REIT, In) · PSA (Public Storage)
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