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TRMKTrustmark CorporationSell5.5·$47.54+1.30%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Trustmark Corporation has delivered three earnings beats in the last four quarters with strong momentum indicators including a golden cross and rising volume accumulation, but the stock is priced above analyst targets with negative asymmetry, limiting near-term upside relative to downside.

Thesis pillars

  • Regulatory Concentration RiskDeteriorating
  • Earnings Beat Streak QualityImproving
  • Price Momentum BreakoutImproving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Trustmark Corporation (TRMK) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellValueModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $47.54 — A.R:R is negative (-2.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Regulatory: FRBA and MDBCF supervision.

Trustmark Corporation is a Mississippi bank holding company with $18.9 billion in total assets and $799.8 million in revenue in 2025, operating Trustmark Bank across Alabama, Florida (Panhandle), Georgia, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Texas. The bank converted from a national to a... Read more

$47.54-12.8% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#189 of 223 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield2.16%(5y avg 2.98%)Payout25.73%sustainable
Stop $45.78Target $47.04(resistance)A.R:R -2.2:1
Analyst target$47.65+0.2%5 analysts
$47.04our TP
$47.54price
$47.65mean
$46
$52

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $47.54 — A.R:R is negative (-2.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Regulatory: FRBA and MDBCF supervision. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 62, MACD bullish. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, earnings proximity 89d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-31
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Oct 27, 202689d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Positive momentum
Risks
Concentration risk — Regulatory: FRBA and MDBCF supervision
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (1.0% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.4
P/E (Fwd)11.4
Mkt Cap$2.8B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn28.4%
ROE10.9%
Rev Growth5.7%
Beta0.64
Dividend2.16%
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C2.00bearish
IV38%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHregulatoryFRBA and MDBCF supervision
    10-K Item 1: 'TB is a member bank of the Federal Reserve System and is supervised by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (FRBA)'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-19Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Wayne A. Stevens, President - Retail Banking of Trustmark Bank, notified the Board of his retirement effective July 3, 2026. RSU vesting accelerated; no severance. Executive Officer since 2009; no successor named.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-30Item 5.02LOW
    Thomas C. Owens appointed COO of Trustmark Bank effective May 1, 2026, while retaining his existing roles as Treasurer, Principal Financial Officer, and CFO of the Bank. Salary set at $550,000. No prior officer departure involved.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
3.6
Revenue Growth
3.9

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.3
Support Resistance
1.4
52w Position
9.8
GatesA.R:R -2.2=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 7.1>=5.5Insider activity: OKEARNINGS PROXIMITY 89d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
62 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $44.81Resistance $48.00

Price Targets

$46
$47
A.Upside-12.8%
A.R:R-2.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-12.8% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-27 (89d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TRMK stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $47.54 — A.R:R is negative (-2.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Regulatory: FRBA and MDBCF supervision. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 62, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $45.78. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TRMK stock price target?

Take-profit target: $47.04 (-12.8% upside). Prior stop was $45.78. Stop-loss: $45.78.

What are the risks of investing in TRMK?

Concentration risk — Regulatory: FRBA and MDBCF supervision; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.0% away).

Is TRMK overvalued or undervalued?

Trustmark Corporation trades at a P/E of 12.4 (forward 11.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TRMK?

12 analysts cover TRMK with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $48.

What does Trustmark Corporation do?Trustmark Corporation is a Mississippi bank holding company with $18.9 billion in total assets and $799.8 million in...

Trustmark Corporation is a Mississippi bank holding company with $18.9 billion in total assets and $799.8 million in revenue in 2025, operating Trustmark Bank across Alabama, Florida (Panhandle), Georgia, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Texas. The bank converted from a national to a Mississippi state-chartered bank on August 4, 2025, shifting primary federal supervision to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, and serves customers through General Banking and Wealth Management segments.

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