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TLNTalen Energy CorporationSell5.7·$388.54+7.77%
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Talen Energy Corporation (TLN) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Utilities · Utilities - Independent Power Producers

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $388.54: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

Talen Energy is an independent power producer with ~13.1 GW of U.S. generation including 90% of the 2.5 GW Susquehanna nuclear plant, predominantly in PJM markets. Revenue sources include PJM capacity/energy auctions, a long-term PPA providing up to 1,920 MW to AWS through 2042,... Read more

$388.54+5.8% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#3 of 7 Utilities - Independent Power Producers
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield8.42%
Stop $360.98Target $410.80(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.4:1
Analyst target$472.18+21.5%14 analysts
$410.80our TP
$388.54price
$472.18mean
$595

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $388.54: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 52d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202652d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: PJM market
Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)10.1
Mkt Cap$16.5B
EV/EBITDA33.9
Profit Mgn-0.6%
ROE-1.9%
Rev Growth96.7%
Beta1.60
DividendNone
Rating analysts23

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C1.13bearish
IV65%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicPJM market
    10-K Item 1: 'The substantial majority of our generation capacity is located in, and accordingly the majority of our revenues are derived from, PJM'
  • MEDIUMCustomerAWS
    10-K Item 1: 'we and AWS entered into an expanded power purchase agreement for the long-term, fixed-price supply of up to 1,920 MW of power annually from Susquehanna'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3M

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.8
Bollinger
2.3
Gap
4.0
52w Position
7.2

Unprofitable operations — net margin -0.6%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Roa
1.3
Gross Margin
4.0
Current Ratio
4.7
Moat
5.0
Fcf Quality
6.0
Piotroski F
6.7
Operating Margin
6.9
FCF-positive but moderate margins (FCF margin 43%, FCF yield 8.4%)No competitive moat

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
0.0
Quality Rank
2.3
Growth Rank
8.3
Industry growth leader
GatesA.R:R 0.4 < 1.5@spotMomentum 5.3<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.3>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 52d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
50 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $309.36Resistance $394.63

Price Targets

$361
$411
A.Upside+5.7%
A.R:R0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)
! asymmetry at 0.4 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (52d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TLN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $388.54: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $360.98. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TLN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $410.80 (+5.8% upside). Prior stop was $360.98. Stop-loss: $360.98.

What are the risks of investing in TLN?

Concentration risk — Geographic: PJM market; Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0).

Is TLN overvalued or undervalued?

Talen Energy Corporation trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 10.1). TrendMatrix value score: 6.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TLN?

23 analysts cover TLN with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $472.

What does Talen Energy Corporation do?Talen Energy is an independent power producer with ~13.1 GW of U.S. generation including 90% of the 2.5 GW Susquehanna...

Talen Energy is an independent power producer with ~13.1 GW of U.S. generation including 90% of the 2.5 GW Susquehanna nuclear plant, predominantly in PJM markets. Revenue sources include PJM capacity/energy auctions, a long-term PPA providing up to 1,920 MW to AWS through 2042, and RMR arrangements paying ~$180M/year fixed for Brandon Shores and H.A. Wagner.

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