Value
7.5/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.4 |
| PEG | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.3x
- ▸PEG: 2.55
- ▸Attractively valued
TLK · Why this verdict
Why PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia, Tb (TLK) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Telkom Indonesia is a telecom operator with a 10.1% dividend yield, a 9.9x forward P/E and 40% analyst upside, but the stock is 45% off its high in a confirmed downtrend with a sector penalty.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock trades at a 9.9x forward P/E, with the value score at 9.0/10 and conservative debt levels versus peers. Valuation breakdown | The forward P/E should stay below about 12x as earnings hold up over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA low multiple on a stock 45% off its high may reflect deteriorating fundamentals rather than a bargain, and the data shows no growth detail. | ||
The dividend yield is 10.1%, a large part of the return case. Catalyst breakdown | The dividend should be maintained at a yield of at least 8% over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA double-digit yield after a 45% price drop can signal market doubt about the payout, and no dividend-safety data is provided. | ||
Analysts see 40% upside, with a $14.45 target 19.1% above the $12.13 price after the haircut. Sentiment breakdown | Price should move toward the $14.45 target over 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterReward-to-risk is only 1.28 with 15.0% downside, below the 1.5 level normally required. | ||
Financial health is solid, with a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9. Quality breakdown | The Piotroski F-Score should hold at 7 or higher over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe quality score is only 5.5 overall, and the Piotroski score alone does not capture currency and regulatory risk. | ||
Price is below its 200-day average, which slopes down 6.3% over 30 days, though rising on-balance volume shows some accumulation and a sector modifier of -0.8 weighs on the score. Momentum breakdown | Price should reclaim the 200-day moving average and the slope should turn positive within two quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA steep -6.3% slope marks a confirmed downtrend with a death cross, and trends of this kind often persist. | ||
The stock trades at a 9.9x forward P/E, with the value score at 9.0/10 and conservative debt levels versus peers.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward P/E should stay below about 12x as earnings hold up over 12 months.
CounterA low multiple on a stock 45% off its high may reflect deteriorating fundamentals rather than a bargain, and the data shows no growth detail.
The dividend yield is 10.1%, a large part of the return case.
↓DeterioratingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The dividend should be maintained at a yield of at least 8% over the next 12 months.
CounterA double-digit yield after a 45% price drop can signal market doubt about the payout, and no dividend-safety data is provided.
Analysts see 40% upside, with a $14.45 target 19.1% above the $12.13 price after the haircut.
↑ImprovingSentiment breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should move toward the $14.45 target over 12 months.
CounterReward-to-risk is only 1.28 with 15.0% downside, below the 1.5 level normally required.
Financial health is solid, with a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The Piotroski F-Score should hold at 7 or higher over the next 12 months.
CounterThe quality score is only 5.5 overall, and the Piotroski score alone does not capture currency and regulatory risk.
Price is below its 200-day average, which slopes down 6.3% over 30 days, though rising on-balance volume shows some accumulation and a sector modifier of -0.8 weighs on the score.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should reclaim the 200-day moving average and the slope should turn positive within two quarters.
CounterA steep -6.3% slope marks a confirmed downtrend with a death cross, and trends of this kind often persist.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.9 |
| ROA | 5.1 |
| Gross margin | 8.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 6.0 |
| Current ratio | 3.2 |
| Moat | 7.0 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
5.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.1 |
| EPS growth | 7.6 |
Momentum
2.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 6.5 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 2.7 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.5%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.5 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 49%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
6.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.8 |
| quality rank | 7.5 |
| growth rank | 6.6 |
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.9 |
| support resistance | 5.7 |
| 52w position | 0.3 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.7 |
| days to cover | 8.1 |
| volatility | 0.6 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 7.4 |
Catalyst
5.4/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.8 |
- ▸Dividend: 10.4%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:2.4>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.9<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
2.36
Upside
+26.4%
Downside
11.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -48% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.0 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 7.5) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:2.9<4.5, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 2.36 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.5, Risk (lower is worse) at 7.2, and Peer rank at 6.8; the weakest are Momentum at 2.9, Technical at 5.0, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.36 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 15x from the current 9.9x without upward earnings revisions.
- P2High Dividend Yield
Trip ifDividend yield falls below 6% from the current 10.1%.
- P3Analyst Upside
Trip ifAnalyst target falls below $12.13, the current price, from the current $14.45.
- P4Financial Health Piotroski
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score drops below 6 from the current 8.
- P5Confirmed Downtrend
Trip ifPrice falls below the $11.28 stop-loss, with the 200-day average slope steeper than -8% per 30 days.