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TLKPT Telekomunikasi Indonesia, TbSell5.8·$11.43
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Telkom Indonesia is a telecom operator with a 10.1% dividend yield, a 9.9x forward P/E and 40% analyst upside, but the stock is 45% off its high in a confirmed downtrend with a sector penalty.

Thesis pillars

  • Attractive Valuation→Stable
  • High Dividend Yield↓Deteriorating
  • Analyst Upside↑Improving
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Oct 24, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia, Tb (TLK) Stock Analysis

SellValueGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Communication Services · Telecom Services

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $11.43 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8.

Perusahaan Perseroan (Persero) PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk provides information and communications technology, and telecommunications network services worldwide. The company operates through Mobile, Consumer, Enterprise, Wholesale and International Business, and Other... Read more

$11.43+26.4% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#9 of 41 Telecom Services
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield508815.94%
IncomeYield10.39%(5y avg 4.78%)Payout116.68%at-risk
Stop $10.63Analyst target $14.45(−15% haircut)A.R:R 2.4:1
Analyst consensus$17.00+48.7%1 analysts
Range unavailable (1 analysts)

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $11.43 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-29

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 33%
Analyst upside: 26%
Risks
Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8
Negative momentum
Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.5%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.1
P/E (Fwd)9.3
Mkt Cap$11.3B
EV/EBITDA—
Profit Mgn12.0%
ROE17.7%
Rev Growth6.4%
Beta0.15
Dividend10.39%
Rating analysts23

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Volume
2.7
Rsi
3.5
Macd
6.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.5%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 2.9<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 2.4 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Speculative
RSI
37 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $10.15Resistance $13.16

Price Targets

$11
$14
A.Upside+26.4%
A.R:R2.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 2.9 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

We could not retrieve earnings history for TLK.
The company may be recently listed, pre-revenue, or its beat/miss record wasn't available from our source this run. Earnings signals feed the Growth and Catalyst score dimensions — absence here doesn't affect other dimensions.

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TLK stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $11.43 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $10.63. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TLK stock price target?

Analyst target: $14.45 (+26.4% upside). Prior stop was $10.63. Stop-loss: $10.63.

What are the risks of investing in TLK?

Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8; Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.5%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is TLK overvalued or undervalued?

PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia, Tb trades at a P/E of 11.1 (forward 9.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TLK?

23 analysts cover TLK with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $17.

What does PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia, Tb do?Perusahaan Perseroan (Persero) PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk provides information and communications technology, and...

Perusahaan Perseroan (Persero) PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk provides information and communications technology, and telecommunications network services worldwide. The company operates through Mobile, Consumer, Enterprise, Wholesale and International Business, and Other segments. The Mobile segment offers mobile voice, SMS, mobile broadband, and value added services. The Consumer segment provides fixed wireline, pay TV, and internet services; and other telecommunication services to home customers. The Enterprise segment offers end-to-end solution to corporate and institutions. The Wholesale and International Business segment provides interconnection services, broadband access, information technology services, data, and internet services to other licensed operator and institutions. The Other segment offers digital content products, big data, business-to-business commerce, and financial services to individual and corporate customers. The company also engages in leasing of towers, and provision of digital support and other telecommunication services; provision of consultation service of hardware, software, data center, and internet exchange, as well as multimedia portal services; business management consulting; property development and management; trading service related to telecommunication, information, multimedia technology, entertainment, and investment services; and digital content exchange hub services. The company was founded in 1884 and is headquartered in Bandung, Indonesia. Perusahaan Perseroan (Persero) PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk operates as a subsidiary of PT Danantara Asset Management (Persero).

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