Value
6.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 7.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.6x
- ▸PEG: 1.00
TEX · Why this verdict
Why Terex (TEX) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Terex Corporation delivered 41% revenue growth year-over-year and has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters, but the stock has essentially reached its analyst price target leaving only 1.3% upside against 7% downside, and an extreme put-to-call ratio of 19x signals hedging pressure.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Terex posted 41% year-over-year revenue growth, the strongest in its industry peer group, combined with a Piotroski financial strength score of 8 out of 9, indicating both top-line momentum and balance-sheet health. Growth | Revenue growth sustaining above 20% year-over-year in the next reported annual period would confirm the growth profile is structural rather than a one-year catch-up. | ↑Improving |
| CounterHeavy construction and farm machinery revenues are highly cyclical and can revert sharply when end-market capital expenditure cycles turn, particularly in infrastructure and agricultural sectors. | ||
Terex beat consensus earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 reported quarters with an average positive surprise of 14.9%, reflecting consistent operational outperformance relative to analyst expectations. Earnings | Earnings-per-share positive surprise above 10% in each of the next 2 reported quarters would confirm management guidance is consistently conservative. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe most recent quarterly beat in May 2026 came in at 26.4% above a low $0.78 estimate, and the sequential trend of declining estimates may mean the high baseline is set on a one-quarter anomaly. | ||
The put-to-call ratio of 19.0x is among the most extreme readings possible, indicating a large portion of active options market participants are buying downside protection, which typically reflects either institutional hedging or anticipation of a significant price decline. Key risks | Put-to-call ratio falling below 3.0 within the next 60 days would signal the institutional hedging overhang has resolved and sentiment has normalized. | ↑Improving |
| CounterExtremely high put-to-call ratios can be a contrarian indicator, and if the anticipated decline does not materialize the short-term forced buying from put sellers could amplify any upside. | ||
With the stock at $65.29 and the analyst-derived take-profit at $66.16, the reward-to-risk ratio is 0.19x — offering only 1.3% potential gain against 7% potential loss — making this an unfavorable entry regardless of the underlying growth story. Targets | A price pullback below $56, more than 14% below current levels, would restore a reward-to-risk ratio greater than 1.5x against the same price targets. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterMomentum indicators are strongly bullish with a golden cross confirmed, RSI at 64, and MACD positive, suggesting the technical setup favors continuation rather than mean reversion. | ||
Terex posted 41% year-over-year revenue growth, the strongest in its industry peer group, combined with a Piotroski financial strength score of 8 out of 9, indicating both top-line momentum and balance-sheet health.
↑ImprovingGrowth
- Expectation
- Revenue growth sustaining above 20% year-over-year in the next reported annual period would confirm the growth profile is structural rather than a one-year catch-up.
CounterHeavy construction and farm machinery revenues are highly cyclical and can revert sharply when end-market capital expenditure cycles turn, particularly in infrastructure and agricultural sectors.
Terex beat consensus earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 reported quarters with an average positive surprise of 14.9%, reflecting consistent operational outperformance relative to analyst expectations.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings-per-share positive surprise above 10% in each of the next 2 reported quarters would confirm management guidance is consistently conservative.
CounterThe most recent quarterly beat in May 2026 came in at 26.4% above a low $0.78 estimate, and the sequential trend of declining estimates may mean the high baseline is set on a one-quarter anomaly.
The put-to-call ratio of 19.0x is among the most extreme readings possible, indicating a large portion of active options market participants are buying downside protection, which typically reflects either institutional hedging or anticipation of a significant price decline.
↑ImprovingKey risks
- Expectation
- Put-to-call ratio falling below 3.0 within the next 60 days would signal the institutional hedging overhang has resolved and sentiment has normalized.
CounterExtremely high put-to-call ratios can be a contrarian indicator, and if the anticipated decline does not materialize the short-term forced buying from put sellers could amplify any upside.
With the stock at $65.29 and the analyst-derived take-profit at $66.16, the reward-to-risk ratio is 0.19x — offering only 1.3% potential gain against 7% potential loss — making this an unfavorable entry regardless of the underlying growth story.
↓DeterioratingTargets
- Expectation
- A price pullback below $56, more than 14% below current levels, would restore a reward-to-risk ratio greater than 1.5x against the same price targets.
CounterMomentum indicators are strongly bullish with a golden cross confirmed, RSI at 64, and MACD positive, suggesting the technical setup favors continuation rather than mean reversion.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.9 |
| ROA | 1.9 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 1.3 |
| Current ratio | 6.3 |
| Moat | 5.6 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
6.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 2.4 |
- ▸Strong growth: 58% YoY
Momentum
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.4 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 5.2 |
| Volume | 6.8 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.2%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.4 |
| Analyst rating | 7.2 |
| Price target | 8.7 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 32%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.3 |
| quality rank | 4.4 |
| growth rank | 8.3 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.9 |
| support resistance | 2.0 |
| 52w position | 5.2 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.9 |
| days to cover | 5.1 |
| volatility | 1.1 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 5.0 |
| beta | 5.1 |
| debt equity | 7.9 |
| news risk | 5.5 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 3.43
Catalyst
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 8.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:7.1>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.70
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:102d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:1.1<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.10
Upside
+14.8%
Downside
13.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.47>1.3
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's 1.1<1.5@spot outcome against Sentiment at 7.4 and asymmetric R:R of 1.10.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.4, Momentum at 7.1, and Catalyst at 6.9; the weakest are Quality at 3.2, Technical at 3.5, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.10 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Revenue Growth Leadership
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% year-over-year in any subsequent annual report, indicating the 41% surge was a cyclical peak rather than a structural shift.
- P2Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, ending the current 4-quarter beat streak.
- P3Options Market Hedging Pressure
Trip ifPut-to-call ratio remains above 5.0 for more than 30 consecutive trading days, suggesting persistent institutional concern rather than a transient hedging event.
- P4Limited Entry Upside
Trip ifStock price rises above $72, exceeding the current analyst target by more than 9%, without a corresponding upward revision to analyst price targets.