Value
9.6/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.9 |
| P/S | 9.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 10.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 4.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.01
- ▸Attractively valued
TEN · Why this verdict
Why Tsakos Energy Navigation (TEN) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score7.3/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Tsakos Energy Navigation earns a composite score of 7.3 out of 10, has beaten earnings estimates in all four of the last four quarters with an average positive surprise of 31%, trades at a forward price-to-earnings of 13.3 times, and generates strong margins of 25% — but forward earnings are projected to decline 52% from the current trailing level as the tanker cycle peaks, and the put-to-call ratio of 27.4 is extremely elevated.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Tsakos Energy Navigation has beaten earnings estimates in all four of the last four quarters with an average positive surprise of 31%, including individual beats of 35%, 59%, 19%, and 11% — and the forward price-to-earnings of 13.3 times with a price-to-earnings growth ratio of 0.08 offers one of the lowest valuations relative to earnings growth in the energy shipping peer group. Earnings | Earnings surprise stays above 10% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters and the forward price-to-earnings stays below 20 times. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe tanker shipping cycle is flagged as approaching a peak with forward earnings projected to decline 52% — making the current beat streak and low forward multiple reflections of cyclical highs that may not persist. | ||
Forward earnings are projected to decline approximately 52% from trailing levels, producing a forward price-to-earnings of 13.3 times versus a trailing price-to-earnings of 6 times — an extreme divergence between current earnings power and projected future earnings that signals the market expects a significant tanker rate correction. Bear case | Forward earnings decline is less severe than projected, with forward price-to-earnings staying below 20 times on stable or rising tanker day-rates. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterShipping cycles are notoriously difficult to forecast; analyst models frequently overestimate tanker rate declines because global trade disruptions, canal availability, and fleet growth constraints can extend tanker up-cycles beyond projected peak. | ||
The put-to-call ratio stands at 27.4 — extremely elevated compared to any typical stock — indicating that options market participants are positioned approximately 27 times more heavily for downside than upside, reflecting strong institutional conviction that the stock will decline from current levels. Key risks | The put-to-call ratio falls below 5.0, more than 22 points below the current 27.4, as the tanker cycle outlook becomes more balanced. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterExtremely high put-to-call ratios in low-liquidity small-cap shipping stocks can reflect hedging by existing shareholders rather than directional bets; low absolute options volume can make the ratio misleading as a directional signal. | ||
Tsakos earns 25% net margins, holds a Piotroski financial health score of 7 out of 9, and has grown revenue 28% year-over-year — providing a buffer of balance sheet strength and profitability that supports the company through a potential tanker rate softening cycle. Quality breakdown | Net margins remain above 20% and the Piotroski financial health score stays at 6 or above through the next two years of the cycle. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA leverage penalty from a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.1 adds financial fragility at the exact moment when earnings are projected to decline 52%; if tanker rates fall faster than projected, margin compression and rising debt service burden can intersect negatively. | ||
Tsakos Energy Navigation has beaten earnings estimates in all four of the last four quarters with an average positive surprise of 31%, including individual beats of 35%, 59%, 19%, and 11% — and the forward price-to-earnings of 13.3 times with a price-to-earnings growth ratio of 0.08 offers one of the lowest valuations relative to earnings growth in the energy shipping peer group.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings surprise stays above 10% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters and the forward price-to-earnings stays below 20 times.
CounterThe tanker shipping cycle is flagged as approaching a peak with forward earnings projected to decline 52% — making the current beat streak and low forward multiple reflections of cyclical highs that may not persist.
Forward earnings are projected to decline approximately 52% from trailing levels, producing a forward price-to-earnings of 13.3 times versus a trailing price-to-earnings of 6 times — an extreme divergence between current earnings power and projected future earnings that signals the market expects a significant tanker rate correction.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Forward earnings decline is less severe than projected, with forward price-to-earnings staying below 20 times on stable or rising tanker day-rates.
CounterShipping cycles are notoriously difficult to forecast; analyst models frequently overestimate tanker rate declines because global trade disruptions, canal availability, and fleet growth constraints can extend tanker up-cycles beyond projected peak.
The put-to-call ratio stands at 27.4 — extremely elevated compared to any typical stock — indicating that options market participants are positioned approximately 27 times more heavily for downside than upside, reflecting strong institutional conviction that the stock will decline from current levels.
↓DeterioratingKey risks
- Expectation
- The put-to-call ratio falls below 5.0, more than 22 points below the current 27.4, as the tanker cycle outlook becomes more balanced.
CounterExtremely high put-to-call ratios in low-liquidity small-cap shipping stocks can reflect hedging by existing shareholders rather than directional bets; low absolute options volume can make the ratio misleading as a directional signal.
Tsakos earns 25% net margins, holds a Piotroski financial health score of 7 out of 9, and has grown revenue 28% year-over-year — providing a buffer of balance sheet strength and profitability that supports the company through a potential tanker rate softening cycle.
↓DeterioratingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Net margins remain above 20% and the Piotroski financial health score stays at 6 or above through the next two years of the cycle.
CounterA leverage penalty from a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.1 adds financial fragility at the exact moment when earnings are projected to decline 52%; if tanker rates fall faster than projected, margin compression and rising debt service burden can intersect negatively.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.7 |
| ROA | 3.8 |
| Gross margin | 8.4 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.2 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 6.9 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 34%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -39% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 54% YoY
Momentum
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 3.4 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.7 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 8.8 |
| Analyst rating | 6.4 |
| Price target | 7.3 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.75 (n=2)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (2.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $1,001,345 (0.062% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
6.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.4 |
| quality rank | 5.5 |
| growth rank | 5.4 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.8 |
| support resistance | 2.8 |
| 52w position | 9.0 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.9 |
| days to cover | 9.9 |
| volatility | 0.7 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 3.8 |
| debt equity | 5.0 |
Catalyst
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 6.7 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.7>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:20d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.1=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.09
Upside
-1.2%
Downside
13.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 20d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.6B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.7>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Technical at 4.9. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 9.6, and Sentiment at 7.5; the weakest are Technical at 4.9, Momentum at 5.7, and Insider at 5.9. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.09 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Earnings Beat At Value
Trip ifEarnings surprise falls below 0% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, ending the current beat streak as tanker rates soften.
- P2Cyclical Earnings Peak Risk
Trip ifForward price-to-earnings rises above 25 times on downward earnings estimate revisions, indicating projected earnings decline is larger than 52%.
- P3Extreme Put Call Ratio Warning
Trip ifPut-to-call ratio remains above 15.0 for more than 90 days, indicating sustained institutional conviction of more than 15 times more bearish than bullish options positioning.
- P4High Quality Margins And Balance Sheet
Trip ifNet margins drop below 15% in any reported quarter, more than 10 percentage points below the current 25% level.