Value
8.4/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.8 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 18.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.30
- ▸Attractively valued
TDAY · Why this verdict
Why USA TODAY Co. (TDAY) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
USA TODAY Co. is a $1.0B publisher turning from losses to profits with three beats in four quarters, but revenue is declining 8%, quality is 2.6/10, short interest is 18% and most of its debt is owed to a single creditor.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
EPS beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters and moved from a -0.27 loss to positive 0.06 and 0.12 in the last two quarters. Earnings | EPS should stay positive and meet or beat consensus in the report due 2026-11-05. | →Stable |
| CounterThe beats come off negative or near-zero estimates, and the October 2025 quarter missed by 124%, so the turnaround is still fragile. | ||
Revenue is declining 8%, and recent quarterly revenue of $536M is down from $585M, which pressures a publishing business with no competitive moat. Growth breakdown | Revenue decline should narrow to better than -3% YoY, with quarterly revenue stabilizing near $528M or higher. | →Stable |
| CounterCost cuts can lift earnings even as revenue falls, as the recent EPS improvement shows. | ||
A single creditor holds the majority of the company's indebtedness, a high-severity concentration risk, and quality scores 2.6 against a 4.0 floor. Bear case | Debt terms should remain stable and the quality score should rise toward 4.0 over 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA single large lender can mean simpler terms and an aligned partner, and no covenant or refinancing problem is cited in the data. | ||
Analysts see 27% upside, with price $6.86 about 10.3% below the $7.57 target, and the value score is 8.0 with a PEG of 0.38. Sentiment breakdown | Price should move toward the $7.57 target as earnings improve. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe forward P/E of 20.2x is not low for a shrinking publisher, and the modeled reward-to-risk is only 1.1. | ||
Momentum is poor at 2.9/10 with falling on-balance volume, short interest is 18% and implied volatility is 102%. Momentum breakdown | Momentum score should recover above 4.5 and short interest should fall below 12% within 12 months. | Tripped↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe 200-day average is still rising 3.3% over 30 days, so this may be a pullback in an uptrend, and heavy shorting can fuel a squeeze. | ||
EPS beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters and moved from a -0.27 loss to positive 0.06 and 0.12 in the last two quarters.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS should stay positive and meet or beat consensus in the report due 2026-11-05.
CounterThe beats come off negative or near-zero estimates, and the October 2025 quarter missed by 124%, so the turnaround is still fragile.
Revenue is declining 8%, and recent quarterly revenue of $536M is down from $585M, which pressures a publishing business with no competitive moat.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue decline should narrow to better than -3% YoY, with quarterly revenue stabilizing near $528M or higher.
CounterCost cuts can lift earnings even as revenue falls, as the recent EPS improvement shows.
A single creditor holds the majority of the company's indebtedness, a high-severity concentration risk, and quality scores 2.6 against a 4.0 floor.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Debt terms should remain stable and the quality score should rise toward 4.0 over 12 months.
CounterA single large lender can mean simpler terms and an aligned partner, and no covenant or refinancing problem is cited in the data.
Analysts see 27% upside, with price $6.86 about 10.3% below the $7.57 target, and the value score is 8.0 with a PEG of 0.38.
↑ImprovingSentiment breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should move toward the $7.57 target as earnings improve.
CounterThe forward P/E of 20.2x is not low for a shrinking publisher, and the modeled reward-to-risk is only 1.1.
Momentum is poor at 2.9/10 with falling on-balance volume, short interest is 18% and implied volatility is 102%.
Tripped↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum score should recover above 4.5 and short interest should fall below 12% within 12 months.
CounterThe 200-day average is still rising 3.3% over 30 days, so this may be a pullback in an uptrend, and heavy shorting can fuel a squeeze.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 3.2 |
| Gross margin | 3.9 |
| Op margin | 1.7 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 3.2 |
| Moat | 3.2 |
| Piotroski F | 5.6 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
5.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.4 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -8%
Momentum
1.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 2.3 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+2.9%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.5 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 37%
Insider
5.4/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.8 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.3 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
Technical
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 9.5 |
| 52w position | 3.8 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 1.7 |
| days to cover | 0.6 |
| volatility | 2.4 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 5.4 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸High short interest justified: 18%
- ▸High IV: 83%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Earnings in 6 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:2.4>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:1.8<4.5
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
2.38
Upside
+19.2%
Downside
8.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.9B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.40>1.3, MCap $0.9B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 1.8<4.5 outcome against Value at 8.4 and asymmetric R:R of 2.38.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.4, Technical at 7.3, and Sentiment at 6.4; the weakest are Momentum at 1.8, Peer rank at 2.1, and Quality at 2.6. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.38 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Turnaround Beats
Trip ifEPS falls below 0 in the 2026-11-05 report or misses estimates in 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Declining Revenue
Trip ifYoY revenue decline exceeds 12% from the current -8%.
- P3Lender Concentration Debt Risk
Trip ifQuality score stays below 3.0 for 4 consecutive quarters, from the current 2.6.
- P4Valuation And Analyst Upside
Trip ifAnalyst target falls below $6.50 from the current $7.57.
- P5Weak Momentum High Short InterestTripped
Trip ifPrice falls below the $6.38 stop-loss, with momentum score under 2.5 from the current 2.9.