Value
9.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.2 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 10.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 4.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.06
- ▸Attractively valued
TBLA · Why this verdict
Why Taboola.com (TBLA) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Taboola trades at a 4.7x forward P/E with a three-quarter beat streak and 67% analyst upside, but it sits 40% off its high in a confirmed downtrend with below-average quality and very high implied volatility.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quality is below average at 4.1 with thin margins, and options show a put/call ratio of 6.0 and 119% implied volatility. Risk breakdown | Quality score should rise above 5.0 and implied volatility should fall below 80% over 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 shows improving fundamentals, so low margin scores may be understating a turnaround. | ||
The stock is priced at a forward P/E of 4.7x and a PEG of 0.05, with the value score at 9.4/10. Valuation breakdown | Earnings should hold so the forward P/E stays below about 7x as the shares re-rate over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA multiple this low in an advertising-technology business may reflect structural fears about traffic and partner dependence, and the stock is already 40% off its high. | ||
The company beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters and was in line in the latest (0.14 vs 0.14), with an average surprise of 36.5%. Earnings | EPS should meet or beat consensus in the 2026-11-04 report and the following quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe latest quarter was only in line, and quarterly revenue has fallen from $522M to $477M across recent periods. | ||
Analysts see 67% upside, with a $4.96 target against a $3.41 price. Sentiment breakdown | Price should move toward the $4.96 target over 12 months as results are delivered. | ↑Improving |
| CounterAnalyst coverage is light, which dampens the signal, and a death cross keeps price in a downtrend. | ||
Price is below its 200-day average with the average sloping down 2.4% over 30 days, a confirmed downtrend, although rising on-balance volume shows accumulation. Momentum breakdown | Price should reclaim the 200-day moving average and the average's slope should turn positive within two quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterDeath crosses often precede further declines, and rising volume has not yet produced a price recovery. | ||
Quality is below average at 4.1 with thin margins, and options show a put/call ratio of 6.0 and 119% implied volatility.
↑ImprovingRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Quality score should rise above 5.0 and implied volatility should fall below 80% over 12 months.
CounterThe Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 shows improving fundamentals, so low margin scores may be understating a turnaround.
The stock is priced at a forward P/E of 4.7x and a PEG of 0.05, with the value score at 9.4/10.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings should hold so the forward P/E stays below about 7x as the shares re-rate over 12 months.
CounterA multiple this low in an advertising-technology business may reflect structural fears about traffic and partner dependence, and the stock is already 40% off its high.
The company beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters and was in line in the latest (0.14 vs 0.14), with an average surprise of 36.5%.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS should meet or beat consensus in the 2026-11-04 report and the following quarters.
CounterThe latest quarter was only in line, and quarterly revenue has fallen from $522M to $477M across recent periods.
Analysts see 67% upside, with a $4.96 target against a $3.41 price.
↑ImprovingSentiment breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should move toward the $4.96 target over 12 months as results are delivered.
CounterAnalyst coverage is light, which dampens the signal, and a death cross keeps price in a downtrend.
Price is below its 200-day average with the average sloping down 2.4% over 30 days, a confirmed downtrend, although rising on-balance volume shows accumulation.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should reclaim the 200-day moving average and the average's slope should turn positive within two quarters.
CounterDeath crosses often precede further declines, and rising volume has not yet produced a price recovery.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.2 |
| ROA | 1.5 |
| Gross margin | 2.0 |
| Op margin | 1.1 |
| Net margin | 3.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.3 |
| FCF quality | 6.9 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
6.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.1 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 6.4 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 3.5 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.7%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.2 |
| Analyst rating | 6.5 |
| Price target | 9.8 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.45 (n=2)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (5.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 64%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.6 |
| quality rank | 4.6 |
| growth rank | 2.4 |
Technical
2.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.9 |
| support resistance | 1.9 |
| 52w position | 2.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.4 |
| days to cover | 6.3 |
| volatility | 5.2 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| beta | 5.0 |
| debt equity | 9.3 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 6.00
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Earnings in 5 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.7>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:4.9>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.7>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
4.93
Upside
+42.5%
Downside
8.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 48
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.9B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.50>1.3, MCap $0.9B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.1 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 9.4) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 4.93 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.4, Sentiment at 7.7, and Insider at 7.3; the weakest are Technical at 2.3, Quality at 4.1, and Peer rank at 5.4. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 4.93 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Deep Value Forward Pe
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 10x from the current 4.7x without upward earnings revisions.
- P2Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS misses estimates in 2 consecutive quarters, or quarterly revenue falls below $450M.
- P3Analyst Upside To Target
Trip ifAnalyst target falls below $4.00 from the current $4.96.
- P4Confirmed Downtrend
Trip ifPrice falls below the $3.17 stop-loss level, with momentum score under 4.0 from the current 4.9.
- P5Below Average Quality Volatility
Trip ifQuality score falls below 3.5 from the current 4.1, or Piotroski F-Score drops below 5 from 7.