Value
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.9 |
| P/S | 9.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.6 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.09
- ▸Attractively valued
TBLA · Why this verdict
Why Taboola.com (TBLA) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock is in a breakout setup with a golden cross, price above all major moving averages, RSI at 59 and bullish MACD, backed by a perfect 4-for-4 earnings beat streak. Bull case | The beat streak should continue with at least 3 of the next 4 quarters beating estimates, and the golden cross should hold for at least two quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe bear case notes the stock is near its 52-week high with the analyst target already reached, capping how much further the breakout can extend without target revisions. | ||
Heavy insider selling of $106,111,830 (7.553% of market cap) is large enough that the engine's insider gate failed outright, flagging it as EXTREME. Insider breakdown | Insider selling should decelerate to well under 2% of market cap over the next quarter for the extreme flag to clear. | →Stable |
| CounterHeavy selling at a company near its 52-week high can reflect routine profit-taking by long-term holders rather than a signal about forward business prospects. | ||
The asymmetry gate failed at -0.13, and the target-reached signal shows only -2.0% remaining upside, meaning the near-term risk/reward has turned unfavorable. Engine gate (failed) | The asymmetry ratio should recover above 1.0 as either the price consolidates or a higher analyst target emerges. | →Stable |
| CounterMomentum remains strong at 6.8, well above the engine's 5.5 threshold, showing the technical trend is still firmly intact even with poor asymmetry. | ||
Shares trade at a forward P/E of 7.5x with an extremely low PEG of 0.08, and value scoring flags the stock as attractively valued. Valuation breakdown | The PEG ratio should stay below 0.5 as earnings estimates hold, supporting continued re-rating. | →Stable |
| CounterLight analyst coverage dampens sentiment signals, and margin compression (operating margin -1.6%) noted in the value-trap signals could undercut the case that the low multiple is a genuine bargain. | ||
The stock is in a breakout setup with a golden cross, price above all major moving averages, RSI at 59 and bullish MACD, backed by a perfect 4-for-4 earnings beat streak.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- The beat streak should continue with at least 3 of the next 4 quarters beating estimates, and the golden cross should hold for at least two quarters.
CounterThe bear case notes the stock is near its 52-week high with the analyst target already reached, capping how much further the breakout can extend without target revisions.
Heavy insider selling of $106,111,830 (7.553% of market cap) is large enough that the engine's insider gate failed outright, flagging it as EXTREME.
→StableInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Insider selling should decelerate to well under 2% of market cap over the next quarter for the extreme flag to clear.
CounterHeavy selling at a company near its 52-week high can reflect routine profit-taking by long-term holders rather than a signal about forward business prospects.
The asymmetry gate failed at -0.13, and the target-reached signal shows only -2.0% remaining upside, meaning the near-term risk/reward has turned unfavorable.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- The asymmetry ratio should recover above 1.0 as either the price consolidates or a higher analyst target emerges.
CounterMomentum remains strong at 6.8, well above the engine's 5.5 threshold, showing the technical trend is still firmly intact even with poor asymmetry.
Shares trade at a forward P/E of 7.5x with an extremely low PEG of 0.08, and value scoring flags the stock as attractively valued.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The PEG ratio should stay below 0.5 as earnings estimates hold, supporting continued re-rating.
CounterLight analyst coverage dampens sentiment signals, and margin compression (operating margin -1.6%) noted in the value-trap signals could undercut the case that the low multiple is a genuine bargain.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Taboola is in a golden-cross breakout with a perfect earnings beat streak and a cheap PEG, but extreme insider selling and a negative asymmetry read near its analyst target argue for caution.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.7 |
| ROA | 1.1 |
| Gross margin | 1.9 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 2.8 |
| Current ratio | 4.4 |
| FCF quality | 9.1 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 124% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
7.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.8 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 7.9 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.6 |
| Price target | 6.1 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (6.0) — signal dampened
Insider
4.7/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $106,111,830 (7.020% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.5 |
| quality rank | 4.7 |
| growth rank | 5.3 |
Technical
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.0 |
| support resistance | 2.4 |
| 52w position | 8.9 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.8 |
| days to cover | 9.6 |
| volatility | 0.4 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 5.5 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 5.0 |
| debt equity | 9.4 |
- ▸Above max pain $2
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULTPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:4.7>=4.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:29d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.4=NEGATIVE
- INSIDER:7.02%=EXTREME
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.7<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.44
Upside
-6.6%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 57, MACD bullish
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 29d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.50>1.3, MCap $1.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: MOMENTUM:4.7>=4.5. Top dim: Value at 7.8; weakest: Quality at 4.1. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.8, Catalyst at 7.5, and Growth at 7.4; the weakest are Quality at 4.1, Technical at 4.6, and Insider at 4.7. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.44 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Breakout Perfect Beat Streak
Trip ifEarnings beat streak drops below 2 of the next 4 quarters.
- P2Extreme Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider selling exceeds 10% of market cap over the next 2 quarters, up from the current 7.55%.
- P3Negative Asymmetry Near Target
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio stays below 0, unchanged from the current -0.13 reading.
- P4Attractive Valuation On Growth
Trip ifPEG ratio rises above 1.0 from the current 0.08.