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TALTAL Education GroupHold7.0·$9.37+1.13%
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TAL Education Group (TAL) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Education & Training Services

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $9.37, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Negative momentum; Below 200-day MA.

TAL Education Group provides K-12 after-school tutoring services in the People's Republic of China. It provides learning services primarily through small classes services; personalized premium services and online course offerings; and learning content solutions, such as print... Read more

$9.37+50.6% A.UpsideScore 7.0/10#1 of 15 Education & Training Services
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield7.25%
Stop $8.80Target $14.10(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 7.5:1
Analyst target$15.66+67.1%18 analysts
$14.10our TP
$9.37price
$15.66mean
$19

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $9.37, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Negative momentum; Below 200-day MA. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 37, MACD bearish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 7.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 52d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15

Recent Developments — TAL Education Group

Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:47Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202652d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Negative momentum
Below 200-day MA

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)10.1
P/E (Fwd)8.9
Mkt Cap$5.6B
EV/EBITDA6.5
Profit Mgn17.6%
ROE14.1%
Rev Growth31.5%
Beta0.07
DividendNone
Rating analysts24

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C9.50bearish
IV92%elevated
Max Pain$4-57.3% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Ma Position
1.5
Rsi
3.5
Macd
3.8
Obv
10.0
Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope flat
GatesMomentum 3.8<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 7.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 52d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate
RSI
37 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $9.07Resistance $10.90

Price Targets

$9
$14
A.Upside+50.5%
A.R:R7.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.8 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (52d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TAL stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $9.37, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Negative momentum; Below 200-day MA. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 37, MACD bearish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $14.10 (+50.5%), stop $8.80 (−6.5%), A.R:R 7.5:1. Score 7.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TAL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $14.10 (+50.6% upside). Target $14.10 (+50.5%), stop $8.80 (−6.5%), A.R:R 7.5:1. Stop-loss: $8.80.

What are the risks of investing in TAL?

Negative momentum; Below 200-day MA.

Is TAL overvalued or undervalued?

TAL Education Group trades at a P/E of 10.1 (forward 8.9). TrendMatrix value score: 9.0/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about TAL?

24 analysts cover TAL with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $16.

What does TAL Education Group do?TAL Education Group provides K-12 after-school tutoring services in the People's Republic of China. It provides...

TAL Education Group provides K-12 after-school tutoring services in the People's Republic of China. It provides learning services primarily through small classes services; personalized premium services and online course offerings; and learning content solutions, such as print books, smart books, mobile apps, and AI-driven learning devices. The company also operates www.xueersi.com, an online education platform; provides investment management and consulting services; develops and sells software and networks, as well as related consulting services; and sells educational materials and products. It offers its services under the Haoweilai and Think Academy brands. The company was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.

Related stocks: EDU (New Oriental Education & Techno) · LAUR (Laureate Education, Inc.) · PRDO (Perdoceo Education Corporation) · LOPE (Grand Canyon Education, Inc.) · AFYA (Afya Limited)
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