Value
9.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 10.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 5.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.02
- ▸Attractively valued
SUPV · Why this verdict
Why Grupo Supervielle (SUPV) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Grupo Supervielle is a regional bank trading at a 6.1x forward P/E with 52% analyst upside and recovering momentum, but quality scores 1.5/10, earnings have missed in 3 of the last 4 quarters and options show extreme bearish positioning.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Business quality is weak, scoring 1.5 against a 4.0 floor with no competitive moat and ROE and ROA components at 0. Quality breakdown | Quality score should rise toward the 4.0 floor as profitability recovers over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterBank accounting for margins and returns can score poorly on these metrics, and the weak reading may be driven by a few depressed quarters. | ||
The shares are priced cheaply, at a forward P/E of 6.1x and a PEG of 0.02, with the value score at 9.8/10. Valuation breakdown | Earnings should hold up enough that the forward P/E stays below about 8x and the stock re-rates toward peers over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA very low multiple may reflect real country and credit risk, and quality ranks in the bottom fraction of peers, so cheapness may be a value trap. | ||
Analysts see 52% upside, with an analyst target of $10.27 against a $7.74 price. Sentiment breakdown | Price should close part of the gap to the $10.27 target as quarterly results improve. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst targets have been unreliable against a record of three misses in four quarters, and the target may be cut if results disappoint. | ||
Earnings are inconsistent: 3 misses and 1 beat in the last four quarters, including a loss of -0.40 per share versus a +0.09 estimate, though the latest quarter beat at 0.28 vs 0.15. Earnings | EPS should meet or beat consensus in the report due 2026-11-17 and confirm that the latest beat marks a turn. | →Stable |
| CounterOne beat after three misses with an average surprise of -240% is not a trend, and catalyst scores show earnings concerns. | ||
Momentum has recovered to 6.1/10 with rising on-balance volume despite a confirmed downtrend below the 200-day average, while options show a put/call ratio of 22.5 and 92% implied volatility. Momentum breakdown | Price should reclaim the 200-day moving average and momentum should hold above 5.5 over the next two quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA put/call ratio of 22.5 and 92% implied volatility signal heavy hedging or bearish bets, and the stock is 43% off its 52-week high. | ||
Business quality is weak, scoring 1.5 against a 4.0 floor with no competitive moat and ROE and ROA components at 0.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quality score should rise toward the 4.0 floor as profitability recovers over 12 months.
CounterBank accounting for margins and returns can score poorly on these metrics, and the weak reading may be driven by a few depressed quarters.
The shares are priced cheaply, at a forward P/E of 6.1x and a PEG of 0.02, with the value score at 9.8/10.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings should hold up enough that the forward P/E stays below about 8x and the stock re-rates toward peers over 12 months.
CounterA very low multiple may reflect real country and credit risk, and quality ranks in the bottom fraction of peers, so cheapness may be a value trap.
Analysts see 52% upside, with an analyst target of $10.27 against a $7.74 price.
→StableSentiment breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should close part of the gap to the $10.27 target as quarterly results improve.
CounterAnalyst targets have been unreliable against a record of three misses in four quarters, and the target may be cut if results disappoint.
Earnings are inconsistent: 3 misses and 1 beat in the last four quarters, including a loss of -0.40 per share versus a +0.09 estimate, though the latest quarter beat at 0.28 vs 0.15.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS should meet or beat consensus in the report due 2026-11-17 and confirm that the latest beat marks a turn.
CounterOne beat after three misses with an average surprise of -240% is not a trend, and catalyst scores show earnings concerns.
Momentum has recovered to 6.1/10 with rising on-balance volume despite a confirmed downtrend below the 200-day average, while options show a put/call ratio of 22.5 and 92% implied volatility.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should reclaim the 200-day moving average and momentum should hold above 5.5 over the next two quarters.
CounterA put/call ratio of 22.5 and 92% implied volatility signal heavy hedging or bearish bets, and the stock is 43% off its 52-week high.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
1.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 1.3 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Moat | 3.6 |
| Piotroski F | 5.6 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
3.1/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.1 |
Momentum
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 6.2 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 8.4 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.5%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.9 |
| erm sentiment | 3.1 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 77%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.9 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 1.7 |
Technical
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.9 |
| support resistance | 8.9 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.8 |
| days to cover | 6.3 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
- ▸High IV: 147%
Catalyst
2.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:4.6>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:19d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.2<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
4.64
Upside
+53.7%
Downside
11.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 42
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.6B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -51% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 4.2<4.5 outcome against Value at 9.8 and asymmetric R:R of 4.64.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.8, Insider at 7.3, and Technical at 6.3; the weakest are Quality at 1.5, Catalyst at 2.1, and Growth at 3.1. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 4.64 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Deep Value Forward Pe
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 12x from the current 6.1x without a matching rise in earnings estimates.
- P2Analyst Upside To Target
Trip ifAnalyst target falls below $8.50 from the current $10.27.
- P3Inconsistent Earnings Record
Trip ifEPS misses estimates in the 2026-11-17 report and in at least 2 of the next 3 quarters.
- P4Quality Below Floor
Trip ifQuality score stays below 2.0 for 4 consecutive quarters, from the current 1.5.
- P5Recovering Momentum Bearish Options
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 5.0 from the current 6.1, or price drops to below the $7.20 stop-loss.