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SUPVGrupo Supervielle S.A.Sell5.0·$6.68
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Grupo Supervielle is a regional bank trading at a 6.1x forward P/E with 52% analyst upside and recovering momentum, but quality scores 1.5/10, earnings have missed in 3 of the last 4 quarters and options show extreme bearish positioning.

Thesis pillars

  • Quality Below Floor→Stable
  • Deep Value Forward Pe→Stable
  • Analyst Upside To Target→Stable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Oct 24, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Grupo Supervielle S.A. (SUPV) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup · Inst Constrain edge

SellValueGrowthModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $6.68: Quality below floor (1.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10 and A.R:R 4.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.

Grupo Supervielle S.A., a financial services holding company, provides various banking products and services in Argentina. The company operates through Personal & Business Banking, Corporate Banking, Bank Treasury, Insurance, and Asset Management and Other Services segments. It... Read more

$6.68+53.7% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#204 of 222 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score5 / 9FCF yield—
Stop $6.35Analyst target $10.27(−13% haircut)A.R:R 4.6:1
Analyst consensus$11.80+76.6%5 analysts
$10.27Analyst target
$6.68price
$11.80mean
$15

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $6.68: Quality below floor (1.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10 and A.R:R 4.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 42. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 19d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-29

Recent Developments — Grupo Supervielle S.A.

Latest news

Generated 2026-10-29T11:20:26Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Nov 17, 202619d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (1.5 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—
P/E (Fwd)5.3
Mkt Cap$631M
EV/EBITDA—
Profit Mgn-11.2%
ROE-8.0%
Rev Growth2.3%
Beta0.38
DividendNone
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9

Options Flow

P/C0.50bullish
IV147%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Unprofitable operations — net margin -11.2%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
1.3
Moat
3.6
Piotroski F
5.6
No competitive moatQuality concerns

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
3.5
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3M

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.1
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).
GatesMomentum 4.2<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 4.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 19d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Speculative
RSI
42 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $6.55Resistance $7.75

Price Targets

$6
$10
A.Upside+53.7%
A.R:R4.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (1.5 < 4.0)
! momentum at 4.2 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-17 (19d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SUPV stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $6.68: Quality below floor (1.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10 and A.R:R 4.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 42. Prior stop was $6.35. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SUPV stock price target?

Analyst target: $10.27 (+53.7% upside). Prior stop was $6.35. Stop-loss: $6.35.

What are the risks of investing in SUPV?

Quality below floor (1.5 < 4.0).

Is SUPV overvalued or undervalued?

Grupo Supervielle S.A. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 5.3). TrendMatrix value score: 9.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SUPV?

11 analysts cover SUPV with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $12.

What does Grupo Supervielle S.A. do?Grupo Supervielle S.A., a financial services holding company, provides various banking products and services in...

Grupo Supervielle S.A., a financial services holding company, provides various banking products and services in Argentina. The company operates through Personal & Business Banking, Corporate Banking, Bank Treasury, Insurance, and Asset Management and Other Services segments. It offers savings and checking accounts, and time deposits; personal, mortgage, unsecured, and car loans; overdrafts; loans with special facilities for project and working capital financing; and leasing, bank guarantees for tenants, salary advances, domestic and international factoring, international guarantees and letters of credit, payroll payment plans, and credit and debit cards, as well as financial services and investments, such as mutual funds, guarantees, and benefit payments for senior citizens. The company also provides foreign trade and cash management; advisory services; treasury services; insurance products comprising life, home, personal accidents, technology, ATMs, protected bag and content, and integral insurance product for entrepreneurs and SME customers and other insurance policies; and asset management and other services, as well as operates as a digital online broker. It operates through a network of branches, ATMs, and self-service terminals. The company was formerly known as Inversiones y Participaciones S.A. and changed its name to Grupo Supervielle S.A. in November 2008. Grupo Supervielle S.A. was founded in 1887 and is based in Buenos Aires, Argentina.

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Latest news

Latest News

Benzinga111d agoAnalyst