Value
8.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.2 |
| P/S | 9.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.02
- ▸Attractively valued
STC · Why this verdict
Why Stewart Information Services (STC) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Stewart Information Services has achieved a perfect 4-for-4 earnings beat record with an average positive surprise of 26%, trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 8.7x against 28% year-over-year revenue growth, and ranks as an industry growth leader, though it remains below its long-term moving average and its price target provides only narrow upside at current entry.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Stewart earns a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, free cash flow converts at 73% of net income, and the moat score of 7.1 is above average for the peer group, suggesting a structurally sound business with competitive positioning. Quality breakdown | Piotroski F-Score remains at 8 or 9 for the next 4 quarters and free cash flow conversion stays above 50% of net income, validating the quality profile. | →Stable |
| CounterTitle insurance is a licensed oligopoly with limited true competitive moat at the company level; the high Piotroski score reflects cyclical improvement rather than a structural advantage. | ||
Stewart has beaten consensus EPS estimates in all 4 of the past 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 26%, including a 50% beat in the most recent quarter, signaling consistent and material outperformance. Earnings | The company beats consensus EPS by at least 10% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters as the title insurance market continues to normalize. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterLarge positive earnings surprises in title insurance companies often reflect real estate transaction volume spikes that are difficult to sustain; the 50% single-quarter beat may be a seasonal or rate-driven outlier. | ||
Stewart is generating 28% year-over-year revenue growth, ranking it as a growth leader within the property and casualty insurance peer group based on peer ranking data. Peer-rank breakdown | Revenue growth remains above 15% year-over-year for at least 3 of the next 4 reported quarters as real estate transaction volumes recover from interest rate headwinds. | →Stable |
| CounterTitle insurance revenue is highly cyclical with mortgage origination activity; a sustained period of high interest rates could deflate transaction volumes and revert growth to low single digits. | ||
Stewart is currently trading below its 200-day moving average though the average is still sloping slightly upward at 0.2% per month, suggesting a pullback within a longer-term uptrend rather than a confirmed structural breakdown. Momentum breakdown | Price crosses above the 200-day moving average within 3 months and sustains above it for at least 60 days, confirming the pullback has resolved. | Tripped↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA stock trading below the 200-day average in a recovery setup carries meaningful risk of continued underperformance if upcoming earnings disappoint or interest rates stay elevated. | ||
Stewart earns a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, free cash flow converts at 73% of net income, and the moat score of 7.1 is above average for the peer group, suggesting a structurally sound business with competitive positioning.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski F-Score remains at 8 or 9 for the next 4 quarters and free cash flow conversion stays above 50% of net income, validating the quality profile.
CounterTitle insurance is a licensed oligopoly with limited true competitive moat at the company level; the high Piotroski score reflects cyclical improvement rather than a structural advantage.
Stewart has beaten consensus EPS estimates in all 4 of the past 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 26%, including a 50% beat in the most recent quarter, signaling consistent and material outperformance.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- The company beats consensus EPS by at least 10% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters as the title insurance market continues to normalize.
CounterLarge positive earnings surprises in title insurance companies often reflect real estate transaction volume spikes that are difficult to sustain; the 50% single-quarter beat may be a seasonal or rate-driven outlier.
Stewart is generating 28% year-over-year revenue growth, ranking it as a growth leader within the property and casualty insurance peer group based on peer ranking data.
→StablePeer-rank breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth remains above 15% year-over-year for at least 3 of the next 4 reported quarters as real estate transaction volumes recover from interest rate headwinds.
CounterTitle insurance revenue is highly cyclical with mortgage origination activity; a sustained period of high interest rates could deflate transaction volumes and revert growth to low single digits.
Stewart is currently trading below its 200-day moving average though the average is still sloping slightly upward at 0.2% per month, suggesting a pullback within a longer-term uptrend rather than a confirmed structural breakdown.
Tripped↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price crosses above the 200-day moving average within 3 months and sustains above it for at least 60 days, confirming the pullback has resolved.
CounterA stock trading below the 200-day average in a recovery setup carries meaningful risk of continued underperformance if upcoming earnings disappoint or interest rates stay elevated.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.2 |
| ROA | 3.0 |
| Gross margin | 8.4 |
| Op margin | 2.8 |
| Net margin | 2.1 |
| Current ratio | 6.9 |
| Moat | 7.1 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
6.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 8.6 |
| EPS growth | 3.4 |
- ▸Strong growth: 24% YoY
Momentum
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 3.1 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA (recent, shallow — too early to call)
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 4.8 |
| Analyst rating | 7.1 |
| Price target | 8.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 23%
Insider
6.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 6.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider buying — $63,869 (0.003% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.2 |
| quality rank | 1.4 |
| growth rank | 8.2 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.5 |
| support resistance | 5.8 |
| 52w position | 7.6 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.2 |
| days to cover | 7.4 |
| volatility | 3.8 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 5.8 |
| beta | 7.0 |
| debt equity | 8.2 |
| news risk | 5.0 |
Catalyst
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 3.3%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:88d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:2.5<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.7<1.5@spot
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.67
Upside
+4.6%
Downside
7.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Binary industry: Insurance - Property & Casualty
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Value at 8.2; weakest: Momentum at 2.5. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.2, Catalyst at 7.0, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.9; the weakest are Momentum at 2.5, Peer rank at 4.0, and Quality at 5.4. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.67 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Exceptional Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, indicating the exceptional beat streak has reversed.
- P2Industry Growth Leader 28pct
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 8% year-over-year in any 2 consecutive reported quarters over the next 12 months.
- P3Piotroski Perfect Quality Moat
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 7 in any reported quarter, declining more than 2 points from the current perfect score of 9.
- P4Below 200ma Recovery WatchTripped
Trip ifStock price drops below $60, more than 8% below the current $65.59, while the 200-day moving average slope turns negative, confirming trend failure.