Value
5.5/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 7.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.8 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 22.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.08
STAA · Why this verdict
Why STAAR Surgical (STAA) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
STAAR Surgical is growing 111% YoY with elite cash conversion and a wide moat, but it depends on a single product sold 91% outside the US, and the $24.07 analyst target is only 6.5% above the $22.61 price.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue is growing 111% YoY, making STAAR the industry growth leader with a growth score of 10/10. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth stays above 30% YoY over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA 111% rate likely reflects an easy comparison base, so growth should decelerate sharply, and growth confidence is only 0.33. | ||
Cash conversion is excellent at 400% of net income, the Rule of 40 score is 116, and the company has a wide economic moat and a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow stays above net income and the moat holds over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA 400% FCF/NI ratio comes from a very small net income, and ROE and net margin still score under 1/10, so the ratio may not persist. | ||
The business is concentrated: ICLs make up 100.0% of sales and 91.0% of sales are outside the United States, with 3 HIGH and 1 MED concentration risks. Bear case | The company diversifies its revenue base or keeps international demand stable without disruption. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA single product with a wide moat can be a strength, but any regulatory, reimbursement or currency shock in overseas markets hits the whole business, and 16% short interest shows skepticism. | ||
EPS beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of +62.4%, though one miss of -95.2% occurred in March 2026. Earnings | EPS meets or beats estimates in the report due 2026-11-04. | ↑Improving |
| CounterSurprise swings are extreme (from +266.8% to -95.2%), so the record shows unpredictability more than consistency. | ||
The $24.07 analyst target sits just 6.5% above the $22.61 price, against 10.8% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of 0.6. Estimated upside | Analysts lift targets materially above the current price if growth holds. | →Stable |
| CounterPrice is below its 200-day average and the setup is a recovery from a death cross, so upside beyond the target depends on a successful trend reversal. | ||
Revenue is growing 111% YoY, making STAAR the industry growth leader with a growth score of 10/10.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth stays above 30% YoY over the next 12 months.
CounterA 111% rate likely reflects an easy comparison base, so growth should decelerate sharply, and growth confidence is only 0.33.
Cash conversion is excellent at 400% of net income, the Rule of 40 score is 116, and the company has a wide economic moat and a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow stays above net income and the moat holds over 12 months.
CounterA 400% FCF/NI ratio comes from a very small net income, and ROE and net margin still score under 1/10, so the ratio may not persist.
The business is concentrated: ICLs make up 100.0% of sales and 91.0% of sales are outside the United States, with 3 HIGH and 1 MED concentration risks.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- The company diversifies its revenue base or keeps international demand stable without disruption.
CounterA single product with a wide moat can be a strength, but any regulatory, reimbursement or currency shock in overseas markets hits the whole business, and 16% short interest shows skepticism.
EPS beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of +62.4%, though one miss of -95.2% occurred in March 2026.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS meets or beats estimates in the report due 2026-11-04.
CounterSurprise swings are extreme (from +266.8% to -95.2%), so the record shows unpredictability more than consistency.
The $24.07 analyst target sits just 6.5% above the $22.61 price, against 10.8% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of 0.6.
→StableEstimated upside
- Expectation
- Analysts lift targets materially above the current price if growth holds.
CounterPrice is below its 200-day average and the setup is a recovery from a death cross, so upside beyond the target depends on a successful trend reversal.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.4 |
| ROA | 3.8 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 4.4 |
| Net margin | 0.6 |
| Current ratio | 8.3 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 7.9 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.5 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 400% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Rule of 40: 116 (elite)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 111% YoY
Momentum
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 4.3 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.9 |
| Price target | 6.8 |
| erm sentiment | 6.3 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (9.0) — signal dampened
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.7 |
| quality rank | 3.7 |
| growth rank | 9.6 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
1.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 1.0 |
| 52w position | 3.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 2.3 |
| days to cover | 6.9 |
| volatility | 3.2 |
| put call | 9.2 |
| implied vol | 0.6 |
| beta | 6.3 |
| debt equity | 9.6 |
- ▸High short interest: 15%
- ▸High IV: 77%
- ▸Concentration risks: 3 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 6 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:7.5>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.1=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d
Warning (2)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=7.5>=5.0 recovering
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.15
Upside
-2.2%
Downside
14.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupMomentum Cont — Trend continuation, RSI 64, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.2B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:7.5>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Technical at 1.6. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Momentum at 7.5, and Insider at 7.3; the weakest are Technical at 1.6, Risk (lower is worse) at 5.4, and Value at 5.5. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.15 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Hyper Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 30% YoY from the current 111%.
- P2Elite Cash Conversion Moat
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income falls below 100% from the current 400%.
- P3Single Product Concentration
Trip ifICL share of revenue falls below 90% from the current 100%.
- P4Earnings Beat Record
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Thin Analyst Upside
Trip ifThe analyst target rises above $28 from the current $24.07.