Value
7.9/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.8 |
| P/S | 7.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.06
- ▸Attractively valued
SSB · Why this verdict
Why SouthState Bank (SSB) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
SouthState Bank has delivered four consecutive quarters of earnings beats averaging more than 10% above consensus and carries a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 9.3x that is attractive relative to 23% year-over-year earnings growth, though the stock has approached analyst targets and upside is now thin.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Commercial real estate loans represent 58% of SouthState's loan portfolio, creating meaningful credit-quality sensitivity to any deterioration in the CRE market. Bear case | Nonperforming CRE loans remain below 1% of total loans and credit-loss provisions stay within 0.5% of average loans over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterOffice and retail CRE stress is elevated across the sector, and a regional bank with 58% CRE concentration is more exposed than peers to a repricing cycle or credit event. | ||
SouthState has beaten consensus EPS estimates in all 4 of the past 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 10.5%, demonstrating consistent execution above street expectations. Earnings | The bank continues to beat consensus by at least 5% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters as net interest income trends support earnings. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe beat streak may reflect conservative analyst estimates rather than structural outperformance, and a rate environment shift could erode net interest margins faster than expected. | ||
A forward price-to-earnings ratio of 9.3x against 23% year-over-year earnings growth and a PEG ratio of 0.06 suggests the market is underpricing the bank's near-term earnings power. Valuation breakdown | The price-to-earnings multiple expands toward 12x over 12 months as earnings growth is recognized, producing total return above 20%. | →Stable |
| CounterRegional bank multiples are compressed sector-wide due to rate uncertainty and credit cycle concerns, so multiple expansion may not materialize even with solid earnings. | ||
With the stock trading within approximately 3% of the analyst consensus price target, the near-term reward-to-risk ratio is unfavorable at 0.78 and the upside case depends on target upgrades. Targets | Analyst consensus price target rises above $110, more than 12% above current price, following positive earnings revisions over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterWithout a catalyst to drive analyst upgrades, the stock may consolidate near current levels or correct to stop-loss levels if momentum fades. | ||
Commercial real estate loans represent 58% of SouthState's loan portfolio, creating meaningful credit-quality sensitivity to any deterioration in the CRE market.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Nonperforming CRE loans remain below 1% of total loans and credit-loss provisions stay within 0.5% of average loans over the next 12 months.
CounterOffice and retail CRE stress is elevated across the sector, and a regional bank with 58% CRE concentration is more exposed than peers to a repricing cycle or credit event.
SouthState has beaten consensus EPS estimates in all 4 of the past 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 10.5%, demonstrating consistent execution above street expectations.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- The bank continues to beat consensus by at least 5% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters as net interest income trends support earnings.
CounterThe beat streak may reflect conservative analyst estimates rather than structural outperformance, and a rate environment shift could erode net interest margins faster than expected.
A forward price-to-earnings ratio of 9.3x against 23% year-over-year earnings growth and a PEG ratio of 0.06 suggests the market is underpricing the bank's near-term earnings power.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The price-to-earnings multiple expands toward 12x over 12 months as earnings growth is recognized, producing total return above 20%.
CounterRegional bank multiples are compressed sector-wide due to rate uncertainty and credit cycle concerns, so multiple expansion may not materialize even with solid earnings.
With the stock trading within approximately 3% of the analyst consensus price target, the near-term reward-to-risk ratio is unfavorable at 0.78 and the upside case depends on target upgrades.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- Analyst consensus price target rises above $110, more than 12% above current price, following positive earnings revisions over the next 12 months.
CounterWithout a catalyst to drive analyst upgrades, the stock may consolidate near current levels or correct to stop-loss levels if momentum fades.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.5 |
| ROA | 0.9 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 3.6 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Strong margins: 36%
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
3.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.5 |
| EPS growth | 4.3 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -0%
Momentum
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 9.1 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.8 |
| Analyst rating | 7.2 |
| Price target | 6.3 |
Insider
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $2,813,954 (0.027% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.4 |
| quality rank | 6.1 |
| growth rank | 0.6 |
Technical
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 1.2 |
| 52w position | 9.7 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.3 |
| days to cover | 7.3 |
| volatility | 7.6 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 7.1 |
| max pain risk | 5.0 |
| beta | 8.8 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.4 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULTPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.8>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:87d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.6=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.64
Upside
-5.5%
Downside
8.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: MOMENTUM:6.8>=5.5. Top dim: Value at 7.9; weakest: Growth at 3.4. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.9, Risk (lower is worse) at 7.5, and Catalyst at 6.9; the weakest are Growth at 3.4, Technical at 4.0, and Peer rank at 4.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.64 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Consecutive Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, indicating the beat streak has ended.
- P2Cre Loan Concentration Risk
Trip ifNonperforming loans rise above 1.5% of total loans, more than doubling from a healthy baseline, signaling CRE credit stress.
- P3Attractive Valuation Growth Combo
Trip ifForward price-to-earnings multiple falls below 8x as earnings estimates are revised down by more than 10% from current levels.
- P4Thin Upside Asymmetry Constraint
Trip ifStock price drops below $90, more than 8% below the current $97.60, without a corresponding analyst target increase within 60 days.