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SQMSociedad Quimica y Minera S.A.Hold7.0·$69.88-3.60%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

SQM has grown revenue 70% year-over-year and leads its specialty chemicals peer group on growth, with a Piotroski score of 9 out of 9 and free cash flow at 210% of net income, but has missed analyst earnings estimates in all 4 of the last reported quarters by an average of -20.5%, and recent negative news sentiment has triggered a downward thesis modifier.

Thesis pillars

  • Peer Best Margins SpecialistStable
  • Exceptional Revenue Growth LeaderStable
  • High Quality Cash ConversionStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Sociedad Quimica y Minera S.A. (SQM) Stock Analysis

Temporary headwind edge

HoldValueGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Specialty Chemicals

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $69.88, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 9.6%; Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1.

Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A. produces and sells specialty plant nutrients, and iodine and its derivatives in Chile, Latin America, the Caribbean, Europe, North America, Asia, and internationally. It offers potassium nitrate, sodium nitrate, specialty blends, and other... Read more

$69.88+9.6% A.UpsideScore 7.0/10#1 of 43 Specialty Chemicals
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield13.12%
IncomeYield3.53%(5y avg 5.28%)Payout21.19%sustainable
Stop $67.65Target $76.60(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.2:1
Analyst target$85.11+21.8%18 analysts
$76.60our TP
$69.88price
$85.11mean
$44
$110

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $69.88, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 9.6%; Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Quality-value play. Wait for momentum improvement. | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_WAIT → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 7.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 65d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-14
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Nov 17, 202665d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.4 in RISK_OFF)
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Risks
Thin upside margin: 9.6%
Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1
Consecutive earnings misses (3)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)14.4
P/E (Fwd)10.4
Mkt Cap$20.0B
EV/EBITDA7.8
Profit Mgn20.6%
ROE21.8%
Rev Growth136.7%
Beta1.02
Dividend3.53%
Rating analysts7

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.50bullish
IV76%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.0
Volume
3.6
Capitulation risk (RSI 24, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+5.5%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
6.8
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MDividend: 3.5%
GatesMomentum 2.0<4.5A.R:R 1.2 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 65d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
24 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $69.74Resistance $83.47

Price Targets

$68
$77
A.Upside+9.6%
A.R:R1.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! News modifier -1: STRONG_BUY_WAIT → HOLD_IF_HOLDING
! momentum at 2.0 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 1.2 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-17 (65d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SQM stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $69.88, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 9.6%; Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Quality-value play. Wait for momentum improvement. | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_WAIT → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $76.60 (+9.6%), stop $67.65 (−3.3%), A.R:R 1.2:1. Score 7.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SQM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $76.60 (+9.6% upside). Target $76.60 (+9.6%), stop $67.65 (−3.3%), A.R:R 1.2:1. Stop-loss: $67.65.

What are the risks of investing in SQM?

Thin upside margin: 9.6%; Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Consecutive earnings misses (3).

Is SQM overvalued or undervalued?

Sociedad Quimica y Minera S.A. trades at a P/E of 14.4 (forward 10.4). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about SQM?

7 analysts cover SQM with a consensus score of 2.0/5. Average price target: $85.

What does Sociedad Quimica y Minera S.A. do?Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A. produces and sells specialty plant nutrients, and iodine and its derivatives in...

Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A. produces and sells specialty plant nutrients, and iodine and its derivatives in Chile, Latin America, the Caribbean, Europe, North America, Asia, and internationally. It offers potassium nitrate, sodium nitrate, specialty blends, and other specialty fertilizers under the Ultrasol, Qrop, Speedfol, Allganic, Ultrasoline, Prop, and Prohydric brands. The company also provides iodine and its derivatives for use in medical, agricultural, industrial, and human and animal nutrition products comprising x-ray contrast media, biocides, antiseptics and disinfectants, pharmaceutical intermediates, polarizing films for LCD and LED screens, chemicals, organic compounds, and pigments, as well as added to edible salt to prevent iodine deficiency disorders. In addition, it produces lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide which are used in the production of cathode material for, secondary batteries; lithium chloride; and basic lithium chemicals and lithium derivatives used in lubricating greases for heat-resistant glass, chips for the ceramic and glazing industry, and air conditioning chemicals, as well as other pharmaceutical syntheses and metal alloys. Further, the company produces potassium sulfate; and potassium chloride which are used to nourish various crops. Additionally, it produces and markets industrial chemicals, such as sodium nitrate mainly used in the production of glass and explosives, metal processing and recycling, and production of insulating materials and adhesives; potassium nitrate used as a raw material to produce frits and special ty glass, as well as in the enamel, metal treatment, and pyrotechnic sectors; solar salts used as a thermal storage medium in solar power generation plants; and potassium chloride as an additive in oil drilling and food processing sectors, as well as sells third-party fertilizers. Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A. was founded in 1926 and is headquartered in Santiago, Chile.

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