Value
7.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 8.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Attractively valued
SNDA · Why this verdict
Why Sonida Senior Living (SNDA) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Sonida Senior Living posts standout revenue growth and strong overbought momentum, but a 4-quarter earnings miss streak, weak fundamental quality, and an already-reached price target argue for caution.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue grew 38% year-over-year, and the peer comparison notes flag the company as an industry growth leader. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should remain above 20% YoY over the next several quarters if the growth trajectory holds. | →Stable |
| CounterSenior living occupancy-driven growth can decelerate quickly with demographic or reimbursement policy shifts. | ||
The company has missed EPS estimates in all of the last 4 reported quarters, with an average surprise of -29.54%. Earnings | The company should return to at least an in-line result within the next 2 quarters if the miss streak reflects temporary noise. | ↑Improving |
| CounterFour consecutive misses is a strong signal of a structural forecasting or execution problem rather than a one-off issue. | ||
RSI sits at an extreme 89, with price above the 200-day moving average and rising volume accumulation, indicating a strongly overbought condition. Momentum breakdown | RSI should cool toward the 50-60 range without a sharp price breakdown if the uptrend is healthy. | Tripped↑Improving |
| CounterAn RSI reading this extreme combined with a target already reached significantly raises reversal risk. | ||
The business shows no competitive moat and a weak Piotroski F-Score of 2/9, reflecting below-average fundamental quality. Quality breakdown | The Piotroski F-Score should improve within 12 months if fundamentals are strengthening. | →Stable |
| CounterA senior living operator can carry a low Piotroski score while still generating stable occupancy-based cash flows. | ||
The engine calculates negative asymmetry at -1.13x since the analyst target has effectively been reached, leaving limited stated upside. Reward-to-risk math | Asymmetry should turn positive again if the analyst target is revised higher or price pulls back to a better entry. | →Stable |
| CounterStrong revenue growth momentum could justify analysts raising targets, restoring positive asymmetry. | ||
Revenue grew 38% year-over-year, and the peer comparison notes flag the company as an industry growth leader.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should remain above 20% YoY over the next several quarters if the growth trajectory holds.
CounterSenior living occupancy-driven growth can decelerate quickly with demographic or reimbursement policy shifts.
The company has missed EPS estimates in all of the last 4 reported quarters, with an average surprise of -29.54%.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- The company should return to at least an in-line result within the next 2 quarters if the miss streak reflects temporary noise.
CounterFour consecutive misses is a strong signal of a structural forecasting or execution problem rather than a one-off issue.
RSI sits at an extreme 89, with price above the 200-day moving average and rising volume accumulation, indicating a strongly overbought condition.
Tripped↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI should cool toward the 50-60 range without a sharp price breakdown if the uptrend is healthy.
CounterAn RSI reading this extreme combined with a target already reached significantly raises reversal risk.
The business shows no competitive moat and a weak Piotroski F-Score of 2/9, reflecting below-average fundamental quality.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The Piotroski F-Score should improve within 12 months if fundamentals are strengthening.
CounterA senior living operator can carry a low Piotroski score while still generating stable occupancy-based cash flows.
The engine calculates negative asymmetry at -1.13x since the analyst target has effectively been reached, leaving limited stated upside.
→StableReward-to-risk math
- Expectation
- Asymmetry should turn positive again if the analyst target is revised higher or price pulls back to a better entry.
CounterStrong revenue growth momentum could justify analysts raising targets, restoring positive asymmetry.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
1.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 1.5 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 3.5 |
| Moat | 4.2 |
| Piotroski F | 2.2 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 2/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 137% YoY
Momentum
2.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 1.5 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 4.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.8%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.4 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 47%
Insider
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $10,895,627 (0.675% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
2.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.0 |
| quality rank | 0.5 |
| growth rank | 9.7 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.8 |
| support resistance | 8.2 |
| 52w position | 5.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 3.6 |
| days to cover | 1.6 |
| volatility | 3.8 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 2.4 |
| beta | 8.6 |
| debt equity | 3.4 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 8.83
- ▸High IV: 66%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 7.5 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 0B/4M
- ▸Earnings in 6 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (3)
- ASYMMETRY:4.0>=1.5
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:2.4<4.5
- INSIDER:0.68%=EXTREME
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
4.04
Upside
+28.2%
Downside
7.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.6B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.6B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 2.4<4.5 outcome against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of 4.04.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 7.0, and Technical at 7.0; the weakest are Quality at 1.4, Momentum at 2.4, and Peer rank at 2.9. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 4.04 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Revenue Growth Industry Leader
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 15% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Consistent Earnings Misses
Trip ifThe company's EPS exceeds estimates for at least 2 consecutive quarters, ending the current 4-quarter miss streak.
- P3Overbought Technical MomentumTripped
Trip ifRSI falls below 50, ending the current overbought reading.
- P4Weak Fundamental Quality
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score rises above 4 out of 9 for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Target Reached Negative Asymmetry
Trip ifThe analyst price target rises such that upside exceeds 10% from the current price.