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SNDASonida Senior Living, Inc.Sell5.0·$40.03-2.20%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Sonida Senior Living posts standout revenue growth and strong overbought momentum, but a 4-quarter earnings miss streak, weak fundamental quality, and an already-reached price target argue for caution.

Thesis pillars

  • Strong Revenue Growth Industry LeaderStable
  • Consistent Earnings MissesStable
  • Overbought Technical MomentumStable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Sonida Senior Living, Inc. (SNDA) Stock Analysis

SellGrowthModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $40.03: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.33; Below-average business quality.

Sonida Senior Living owns, operates, or manages senior housing communities across independent living, assisted living, and memory care, serving residents primarily aged 75 and older. As of December 31, 2025, the company had 96 communities in 20 states (about 10,150 resident... Read more

$40.03+4.7% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#28 of 36 Medical Care Facilities
QualityF-score2 / 9FCF yield2.04%
Stop $37.23Target $41.93(resistance)A.R:R -0.8:1
Analyst target$41.25+3.0%4 analysts
$41.93our TP
$40.03price
$41.25mean
$37
$48

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $40.03: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.33; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 34d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Sonida Senior Living, Inc.

About Sonida Senior Living, Inc.

Sonida Senior Living operated 96 senior housing communities across 20 states with capacity for roughly 10,150 residents as of December 31, 2025, offering independent living, assisted living, and memory care primarily to residents aged 75 and older. On March 11, 2026, the company completed its acquisition of CNL Healthcare Properties (CHP), adding 69 communities — 54 managed for third parties and 15 leased under triple-net arrangements — and more than doubling owned units to approximately 14,700 while expanding into the Mountain West and Pacific Northwest. The company financed the merger with $945.0 million of new debt, including $525.0 million in term loans.

Sonida generates revenue primarily from private-pay residents under one-year lease agreements terminable on 30 days' notice, a structure that leaves the company largely insulated from government reimbursement-rate cycles except at the two skilled nursing facilities it acquired through CHP, which draw significant funding from Medicare and Medicaid programs and carry extensive federal and state healthcare regulation. The CHP acquisition also introduced a new operating model Sonida had not previously used at scale: reliance on third-party property managers for 54 communities and third-party tenants for 15 more, of which 13 are leased to a single tenant under agreements running through May 2030. As of year-end 2025, the company carried $693.1 million of mortgage and other indebtedness before the CHP-related financing, plus $306.4 million of variable-rate debt indexed to SOFR, partially hedged with $194.2 million of interest rate caps.

Show full overview

The starkest concentration in Sonida's newly expanded portfolio sits inside the CHP acquisition: 13 of the 15 communities CHP leased to outside operators are leased to a single tenant, under triple-net agreements that don't expire until May 2030. Because Sonida itself has not historically relied on third-party managers or tenants, that single counterparty's ability to keep paying rent, taxes, insurance, and maintenance on 13 communities — rather than any broader trend in senior-housing demand — is now a discrete, identifiable risk to a meaningful slice of the combined company's newly acquired asset base, with a multi-year runway before the lease term itself becomes a renewal decision.

See also: Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities

From Sonida Senior Living, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-08

Recent Developments — Sonida Senior Living, Inc.

Generated 2026-07-08T22:53:48Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Aug 10, 202634d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Tenant: one tenant (CHP triple-net leases)
Target reached (-12.4% upside)
Quality below floor (1.2 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-93.6
Mkt Cap$1.9B
EV/EBITDA71.6
Profit Mgn-27.1%
ROE-20.1%
Rev Growth38.5%
Beta0.76
DividendNone
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F2/9

Options Flow

P/C1.33bearish
IV59%elevated
Max Pain$30-25.1% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHTenantone tenant (CHP triple-net leases)
    10-K Item 1: 'Of the 15 leased communities, 13 are leased to one tenant, under leases scheduled to expire in May 2030, subject to renewal options.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-06-01Item 5.02LOW
    Board appointed Anton Nikodemus (former President/CEO of Seaport Entertainment Group, prior MGM Resorts executive) as EVP and Chief Operating Officer, effective June 15, 2026.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-05-13Item 1.02MEDIUM
    Terminated its at-the-market equity sales agreement with Mizuho Securities USA, effective May 13, 2026, with no early-termination penalties; the ATM program with Mizuho is no longer in effect.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-04-22Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Independent director Shmuel Lieberman resigned effective April 27, 2026 with no disagreement cited; the Board same-day appointed Sam Levinson, a Silk Partners LP board designee, to fill the Class II vacancy.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Unprofitable operations — net margin -27.1%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Gross Margin
1.0
Current Ratio
1.8
Piotroski F
2.2
Moat
4.2
No competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 2/9Quality concerns

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 0B/4M

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
0.0
Quality Rank
0.7
Growth Rank
8.6
Industry growth leader
GatesA.R:R -0.8=NEGATIVEMomentum 4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 4.9>=4.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 34d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
75 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $33.71Resistance $42.79

Price Targets

$37
$42
A.Upside+4.7%
A.R:R-0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-12.4% upside)
! Quality below floor (1.2 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-10 (34d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SNDA stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $40.03: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.33; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $37.23. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SNDA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $41.93 (+4.7% upside). Prior stop was $37.23. Stop-loss: $37.23.

What are the risks of investing in SNDA?

Concentration risk — Tenant: one tenant (CHP triple-net leases); Target reached (-12.4% upside); Quality below floor (1.2 < 4.0).

Is SNDA overvalued or undervalued?

Sonida Senior Living, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -93.6). TrendMatrix value score: 4.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SNDA?

10 analysts cover SNDA with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $41.

What does Sonida Senior Living, Inc. do?Sonida Senior Living owns, operates, or manages senior housing communities across independent living, assisted living,...

Sonida Senior Living owns, operates, or manages senior housing communities across independent living, assisted living, and memory care, serving residents primarily aged 75 and older. As of December 31, 2025, the company had 96 communities in 20 states (about 10,150 resident capacity), and on March 11, 2026 it completed the acquisition of CNL Healthcare Properties (CHP), adding 69 communities and more than doubling owned units to approximately 14,700.

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Benzinga9d ago