Value
4.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 6.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| p ocf | 6.3 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸P/OCF: 17.3x (FFO proxy — REITs gated off P/E)
SMA · Why this verdict
Why SmartStop Self Storage REIT, In (SMA) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.5 |
| ROA | 1.0 |
| Gross margin | 9.0 |
| Op margin | 8.6 |
| Net margin | 2.4 |
| Current ratio | 1.2 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 890% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
7.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.8 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.3 |
| MACD | 7.1 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.5 |
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 7.1 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (10.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.2/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.3 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $40,060 (0.002% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.0 |
| quality rank | 1.3 |
| growth rank | 8.7 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.0 |
| support resistance | 4.2 |
| 52w position | 6.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.3 |
| days to cover | 5.1 |
| volatility | 7.0 |
| put call | 8.8 |
| implied vol | 2.8 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| debt equity | 5.8 |
- ▸High IV: 63%
- ▸Above max pain $18
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 4.2 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELL|L3:NEWS_MOD=+1Passed (5)
- MOMENTUM:5.3>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:58d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.0=NEGATIVE
Warning (3)
- MOMENTUM:5.3<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.3>=5.0 recovering
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.03
Upside
-0.2%
Downside
6.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRECOVERY — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 67
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $1.7B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 3.8 below the 5.4 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 7.9) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.0=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.03 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 7.9, Sentiment at 6.9, and Risk (lower is worse) at 5.5; the weakest are Catalyst at 4.1, Value at 4.1, and Technical at 4.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 3 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.03 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.