Value
6.4/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 1.0 |
| PEG | 8.4 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 88.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.76
SKYD · Why this verdict
Why Skydance (SKYD) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Skydance is a speculative recovery story 50% off its high, with two straight earnings beats and insider buying, but low quality (2.6/10), no moat and a $8.11 analyst target only 4.3% above the $7.77 price against 15.0% downside leave little margin.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Business quality is weak at 2.6/10, with no competitive moat and zero scores on ROE and net margin, below the 4.0 quality floor. Quality breakdown | Margins and returns improve and the quality score rises above 4/10 over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA Piotroski F-Score of 5.6 and positive operating margin suggest the post-merger business is stabilizing, so low quality may partly reflect transition costs. | ||
Earnings are recovering but volatile: the last two quarters beat (+9.7% and +51.4%) after two large misses, leaving 2 beats and 2 misses over four quarters. Earnings | EPS keeps beating estimates in the report due 2026-11-09 and the following quarters. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe earlier misses were extreme (-732% and -130%), so the recent beats may not be sustainable and estimates remain unreliable. | ||
The chart shows a recovery attempt: a death cross is in place but MACD is improving and RSI is 55, even though the 200-day average is falling 5.5% per 30 days and on-balance volume is falling. Chart pattern detection | Momentum rises from 4.0/10 and the price stops making lower lows over the coming quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterFalling volume-based accumulation and a steeply declining 200-day average describe a confirmed downtrend, so the rebound may fade. | ||
The $8.11 analyst target sits just 4.3% above the $7.77 price, against 15.0% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of 0.3. Estimated upside | Analysts raise targets materially above the current price if earnings keep beating. | →Stable |
| CounterThe sentiment score is 6.2/10 and a recent analyst upgrade was detected in news, so the target may rise quickly. | ||
Insiders bought about $13.7M of stock (0.035% of market cap), a modest signal of conviction at depressed prices. Insider breakdown | Insider buying continues or holds without large offsetting sales. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe purchase is small relative to market cap, and 16% short interest and 224% implied volatility show many investors disagree. | ||
Business quality is weak at 2.6/10, with no competitive moat and zero scores on ROE and net margin, below the 4.0 quality floor.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Margins and returns improve and the quality score rises above 4/10 over 12 months.
CounterA Piotroski F-Score of 5.6 and positive operating margin suggest the post-merger business is stabilizing, so low quality may partly reflect transition costs.
Earnings are recovering but volatile: the last two quarters beat (+9.7% and +51.4%) after two large misses, leaving 2 beats and 2 misses over four quarters.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS keeps beating estimates in the report due 2026-11-09 and the following quarters.
CounterThe earlier misses were extreme (-732% and -130%), so the recent beats may not be sustainable and estimates remain unreliable.
The chart shows a recovery attempt: a death cross is in place but MACD is improving and RSI is 55, even though the 200-day average is falling 5.5% per 30 days and on-balance volume is falling.
→StableChart pattern detection
- Expectation
- Momentum rises from 4.0/10 and the price stops making lower lows over the coming quarters.
CounterFalling volume-based accumulation and a steeply declining 200-day average describe a confirmed downtrend, so the rebound may fade.
The $8.11 analyst target sits just 4.3% above the $7.77 price, against 15.0% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of 0.3.
→StableEstimated upside
- Expectation
- Analysts raise targets materially above the current price if earnings keep beating.
CounterThe sentiment score is 6.2/10 and a recent analyst upgrade was detected in news, so the target may rise quickly.
Insiders bought about $13.7M of stock (0.035% of market cap), a modest signal of conviction at depressed prices.
↑ImprovingInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Insider buying continues or holds without large offsetting sales.
CounterThe purchase is small relative to market cap, and 16% short interest and 224% implied volatility show many investors disagree.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 1.8 |
| Gross margin | 2.7 |
| Op margin | 3.7 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.1 |
| Moat | 3.1 |
| Piotroski F | 5.6 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
1.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.7 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
Momentum
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 8.4 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 2.5 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.4 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: -0.50 (n=1)
Insider
7.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 6.5 |
| holder change | 7.5 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider buying — $13,720,000 (0.035% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.4 |
| quality rank | 2.2 |
| growth rank | 1.9 |
Technical
2.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.5 |
| support resistance | 3.7 |
| 52w position | 0.3 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.4 |
| days to cover | 6.7 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 3.8 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 4.8 |
| debt equity | 4.5 |
| news risk | 3.5 |
- ▸High IV: 242%
Catalyst
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.8 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Earnings in 11 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (3)
- INSIDER:OK
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (4)
- MOMENTUM:4.5<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.4<1.5@spot
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
- NEWS_SOFT:RESTRUCTURING
Warning (2)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:11d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
0.40
Upside
+5.9%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupMomentum Cont — Trend continuation, RSI 63, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -48% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 4.5<4.5 outcome against Insider at 7.0 and asymmetric R:R of 0.40.
The strongest dimensions are Insider at 7.0, Value at 6.4, and Sentiment at 4.9; the weakest are Growth at 1.4, Quality at 2.6, and Technical at 2.9. The V9 engine flagged 4 failed gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.40 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1No Moat Low Quality
Trip ifThe quality score rises above 4.0 from the current 2.6.
- P2Volatile Earnings Turnaround
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Recovery After Death Cross
Trip ifThe momentum score falls below 3.0 from the current 4.0.
- P4Thin Analyst Upside
Trip ifThe analyst target rises above $10 from the current $8.11.
- P5Insider Buying Conviction
Trip ifNet insider buying falls below $1,000,000 from the current $13.7M.