Value
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.7 |
| P/S | 9.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 4.8 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.0x
- ▸PEG: 1.70
SHEL · Why this verdict
Why Shell (SHEL) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Shell has strong earnings momentum (3 beats in 4 quarters, 45% YoY growth) at a modest 10.3x forward P/E, but the $108.18 price is already 12.2% above the $95.00 analyst target and sits near its 52-week high with RSI at 84.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Valuation is moderate at a forward P/E of 10.3x and a PEG of 1.59, with dividend safety scoring 6.8/10. Valuation breakdown | The forward P/E stays below 14x and the dividend is maintained over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA PEG of 1.59 shows growth is not cheaply priced, and integrated oil earnings are cyclical, so low multiples can be a peak-earnings illusion. | ||
Shell beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of +4.0% and the latest two beats near +10%. Earnings | EPS meets or beats consensus in the report due 2026-10-29 and the following quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterEnergy earnings track commodity prices, and one miss of -11.8% in February 2026 shows how quickly a beat streak can break. | ||
Growth is strong at 45% YoY, with both revenue and earnings growth components at 10/10. Growth breakdown | Growth stays well above 10% YoY over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA 45% YoY comparison is flattered by an easy base and oil-price swings, so growth is unlikely to repeat at this rate. | ||
The $108.18 price is 12.2% above the $95.00 analyst target, and the stock is just 0.2% from its 52-week high, so analyst-implied upside is exhausted. Analyst target | Analysts raise targets above the current price as earnings come in. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst targets lag a rally, so a price above target is as consistent with upward revisions as with overvaluation. | ||
Momentum is strong at 6.8/10, with price above its 200-day average and rising on-balance volume, but RSI of 84 marks the shares as overbought. Momentum breakdown | Price holds above its 200-day average even as RSI cools from overbought levels. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAn RSI of 84 and an elevated put/call ratio of 2.31 point to a stretched rally that could reverse sharply on a weak report in 5 days. | ||
Valuation is moderate at a forward P/E of 10.3x and a PEG of 1.59, with dividend safety scoring 6.8/10.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward P/E stays below 14x and the dividend is maintained over 12 months.
CounterA PEG of 1.59 shows growth is not cheaply priced, and integrated oil earnings are cyclical, so low multiples can be a peak-earnings illusion.
Shell beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of +4.0% and the latest two beats near +10%.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS meets or beats consensus in the report due 2026-10-29 and the following quarters.
CounterEnergy earnings track commodity prices, and one miss of -11.8% in February 2026 shows how quickly a beat streak can break.
Growth is strong at 45% YoY, with both revenue and earnings growth components at 10/10.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Growth stays well above 10% YoY over the next 12 months.
CounterA 45% YoY comparison is flattered by an easy base and oil-price swings, so growth is unlikely to repeat at this rate.
The $108.18 price is 12.2% above the $95.00 analyst target, and the stock is just 0.2% from its 52-week high, so analyst-implied upside is exhausted.
→StableAnalyst target
- Expectation
- Analysts raise targets above the current price as earnings come in.
CounterAnalyst targets lag a rally, so a price above target is as consistent with upward revisions as with overvaluation.
Momentum is strong at 6.8/10, with price above its 200-day average and rising on-balance volume, but RSI of 84 marks the shares as overbought.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price holds above its 200-day average even as RSI cools from overbought levels.
CounterAn RSI of 84 and an elevated put/call ratio of 2.31 point to a stretched rally that could reverse sharply on a weak report in 5 days.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.8 |
| ROA | 4.3 |
| Gross margin | 1.2 |
| Op margin | 6.7 |
| Net margin | 4.4 |
| Current ratio | 5.3 |
| FCF quality | 6.1 |
| Moat | 6.1 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 45% YoY
Momentum
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 7.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 70)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.4 |
| Analyst rating | 7.3 |
| Price target | 4.7 |
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.8 |
| quality rank | 2.9 |
| growth rank | 7.1 |
Technical
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.0 |
| support resistance | 0.5 |
| 52w position | 9.9 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.4 |
| days to cover | 7.8 |
| volatility | 7.9 |
| put call | 5.2 |
| implied vol | 6.5 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| debt equity | 8.4 |
- ▸Above max pain $88
Catalyst
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.5 |
| dividend safety | 6.8 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings today
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCK|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (4)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:4.3<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-1.0=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.98
Upside
-11.8%
Downside
12.0%
Sizing output
STARTER
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings. The 10-dimension scores remain Growth at 10.0 (strongest), but MOMENTUM:4.3<4.5 also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Insider at 7.3, and Value at 7.0; the weakest are Technical at 4.3, Momentum at 4.3, and Quality at 5.2. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.98 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Strong Earnings Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% YoY from the current 45%.
- P3Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifThe analyst target rises above $115 from the current $95.00.
- P4Overbought But Accumulated
Trip ifThe momentum score falls below 4.5 from the current 6.8.
- P5Modest Valuation Dividend
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 14x from the current 10.3x.