Value
7.4/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.5 |
| P/S | 5.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.1 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.34
- ▸Attractively valued
SFBS · Why this verdict
Why ServisFirst Bancshares (SFBS) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
ServisFirst Bancshares is a best-in-class regional bank with 54% net margins, a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and strong earnings growth, but commercial real estate concentration at 65.8% of the loan book and a price already at analyst targets leave little margin of safety for new buyers.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Commercial and consumer real estate loans represent 65.8% of the loan portfolio, a high-severity concentration risk that exposes the bank to disproportionate losses if commercial property values decline or vacancy rates rise. Bear case | The bank discloses that CRE concentration falls below 60% of total loans over the next 12 months through portfolio diversification. | ↑Improving |
| CounterRegional banks with strong CRE concentrations have managed through past cycles; the bank's high Piotroski score and strong margins suggest underwriting discipline that mitigates the concentration risk. | ||
Net margins of 54% and a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 place ServisFirst among the highest-quality regional banks by peer comparison, with the quality score ranking near the top of its peer group. Peer-rank breakdown | Net margins remain above 45% over the next 12 months and Piotroski score stays at 8 or higher. | →Stable |
| CounterRegional bank margins are highly sensitive to interest rate movements; a declining rate environment could compress net interest margins and erode the current profitability advantage. | ||
Revenue grew at 7.1% and earnings at 8.2% year-over-year, with a forward price-to-earnings of 11.3x and PEG ratio of 0.36, indicating the market has not yet fully priced in the bank's above-average growth trajectory. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth remains above 6% and earnings growth above 7% for the next 4 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterBank revenue growth is heavily influenced by loan demand and deposit pricing dynamics; a slowdown in commercial lending activity could compress these figures quickly. | ||
A golden cross breakout pattern with RSI at 61 and rising On-Balance Volume confirms positive price momentum, but analyst targets have already been reached with only 1.5% remaining upside, eliminating the risk-adjusted buffer for new entrants. Gates warning | Analyst price targets are raised above $90 over the next 12 months as earnings results justify a higher valuation. | Tripped→Stable |
| CounterThe breakout setup suggests technical buyers may push the stock above analyst targets on near-term momentum, even without fundamental target revisions. | ||
Commercial and consumer real estate loans represent 65.8% of the loan portfolio, a high-severity concentration risk that exposes the bank to disproportionate losses if commercial property values decline or vacancy rates rise.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- The bank discloses that CRE concentration falls below 60% of total loans over the next 12 months through portfolio diversification.
CounterRegional banks with strong CRE concentrations have managed through past cycles; the bank's high Piotroski score and strong margins suggest underwriting discipline that mitigates the concentration risk.
Net margins of 54% and a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 place ServisFirst among the highest-quality regional banks by peer comparison, with the quality score ranking near the top of its peer group.
→StablePeer-rank breakdown
- Expectation
- Net margins remain above 45% over the next 12 months and Piotroski score stays at 8 or higher.
CounterRegional bank margins are highly sensitive to interest rate movements; a declining rate environment could compress net interest margins and erode the current profitability advantage.
Revenue grew at 7.1% and earnings at 8.2% year-over-year, with a forward price-to-earnings of 11.3x and PEG ratio of 0.36, indicating the market has not yet fully priced in the bank's above-average growth trajectory.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth remains above 6% and earnings growth above 7% for the next 4 quarters.
CounterBank revenue growth is heavily influenced by loan demand and deposit pricing dynamics; a slowdown in commercial lending activity could compress these figures quickly.
A golden cross breakout pattern with RSI at 61 and rising On-Balance Volume confirms positive price momentum, but analyst targets have already been reached with only 1.5% remaining upside, eliminating the risk-adjusted buffer for new entrants.
Tripped→StableGates warning
- Expectation
- Analyst price targets are raised above $90 over the next 12 months as earnings results justify a higher valuation.
CounterThe breakout setup suggests technical buyers may push the stock above analyst targets on near-term momentum, even without fundamental target revisions.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.0 |
| ROA | 1.3 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.9 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 56%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
8.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 8.6 |
| EPS growth | 8.7 |
- ▸Strong growth: 24% YoY
Momentum
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 5.2 |
| Volume | 2.7 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.5%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.1 |
| Price target | 7.2 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (3.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.2/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| holder change | 5.9 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $1,028,445 (0.024% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.8 |
| quality rank | 9.6 |
| growth rank | 7.6 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.1 |
| support resistance | 4.6 |
| 52w position | 7.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.9 |
| days to cover | 2.5 |
| volatility | 5.9 |
| implied vol | 6.9 |
| beta | 7.6 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.0 |
| dividend safety | 9.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:4.7>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:82d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.3=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.7<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.32
Upside
-1.9%
Downside
5.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 58 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $4.4B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:4.7>=4.5. Top dim: Growth at 8.6; weakest: Momentum at 4.7. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.6, Value at 7.4, and Sentiment at 6.2; the weakest are Momentum at 4.7, Insider at 5.2, and Technical at 5.4. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.32 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Best In Class Margins And Returns
Trip ifNet margin falls below 40% for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating the best-in-class profitability advantage is narrowing.
- P2Commercial Real Estate Loan Concentration
Trip ifCRE loan concentration rises above 70% of total loans, more than 4 percentage points above the current disclosed level.
- P3Strong Revenue And Earnings Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 3% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters, signaling a meaningful deceleration.
- P4Breakout Momentum No Upside BufferTripped
Trip ifPrice falls below $75, more than 7% below current levels, reversing the breakout pattern below its 200-day moving average.