Value
8.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.9 |
| P/S | 8.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.1 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.5x
- ▸Attractively valued
SB · Why this verdict
Why Safe Bulkers (SB) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Safe Bulkers offers a cheap, high-margin valuation profile, but a flagged earnings-quality concern, a dividend yield-trap warning, and a slightly negative risk-adjusted asymmetry ratio support a call to hold rather than add to the position.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Safe Bulkers trades at a forward P/E of 13.6x with a PEG of 0.05, backed by strong 19% margins and a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9. Valuation breakdown | The PEG ratio should stay well below 1.0 and margins should hold above 15% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterDry-bulk shipping margins are highly cyclical and tied to freight rates, so a cheap multiple today can quickly look expensive if rates roll over. | ||
Despite strong margins, free cash flow is running at only 3% of net income, an earnings-quality red flag. Quality breakdown | FCF-to-net-income conversion should improve above 30% over the next two reported quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterShipping companies often show low near-term FCF conversion due to heavy drydocking and vessel-related capital expenditure cycles, which can normalize without indicating a genuine quality problem. | ||
Safe Bulkers carries a yield-trap warning, with a high dividend yield not fully backed by safe underlying cash flow. Catalyst breakdown | Dividend coverage should improve, or the yield should compress to a more sustainable level, over the next year. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterShipping companies frequently pay variable dividends tied directly to voyage profits, so a nominally unsafe yield may simply reflect the sector's payout structure rather than a cut risk. | ||
The risk-adjusted asymmetry ratio is slightly negative at -0.22, with the analyst target already reached and only -1.9% implied upside against 9.0% downside, explaining the hold-don't-add stance. Warnings | The asymmetry ratio should turn clearly positive as either price consolidates lower or analyst targets are revised upward. | ↑Improving |
| CounterAn asymmetry ratio this close to zero is a marginal call that could flip positive on a small move in freight rates or analyst sentiment. | ||
Safe Bulkers trades at a forward P/E of 13.6x with a PEG of 0.05, backed by strong 19% margins and a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The PEG ratio should stay well below 1.0 and margins should hold above 15% over the next 12 months.
CounterDry-bulk shipping margins are highly cyclical and tied to freight rates, so a cheap multiple today can quickly look expensive if rates roll over.
Despite strong margins, free cash flow is running at only 3% of net income, an earnings-quality red flag.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF-to-net-income conversion should improve above 30% over the next two reported quarters.
CounterShipping companies often show low near-term FCF conversion due to heavy drydocking and vessel-related capital expenditure cycles, which can normalize without indicating a genuine quality problem.
Safe Bulkers carries a yield-trap warning, with a high dividend yield not fully backed by safe underlying cash flow.
↓DeterioratingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Dividend coverage should improve, or the yield should compress to a more sustainable level, over the next year.
CounterShipping companies frequently pay variable dividends tied directly to voyage profits, so a nominally unsafe yield may simply reflect the sector's payout structure rather than a cut risk.
The risk-adjusted asymmetry ratio is slightly negative at -0.22, with the analyst target already reached and only -1.9% implied upside against 9.0% downside, explaining the hold-don't-add stance.
↑ImprovingWarnings
- Expectation
- The asymmetry ratio should turn clearly positive as either price consolidates lower or analyst targets are revised upward.
CounterAn asymmetry ratio this close to zero is a marginal call that could flip positive on a small move in freight rates or analyst sentiment.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.4 |
| ROA | 3.0 |
| Gross margin | 8.7 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.0 |
| FCF quality | 1.0 |
| Moat | 7.1 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 28%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 12% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 33% YoY
Momentum
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 8.5 |
| MACD | 3.6 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 1.0 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 30) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.4 |
| erm sentiment | 7.0 |
Insider
4.1/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 4.4 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.6 |
| quality rank | 4.1 |
| growth rank | 6.5 |
Technical
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.7 |
| support resistance | 6.8 |
| 52w position | 7.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.3 |
| days to cover | 8.6 |
| volatility | 3.3 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 6.9 |
| debt equity | 7.5 |
Catalyst
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 4.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD_NO_UPSIDEPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.4>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:27d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.0<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.4<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
0.03
Upside
+0.2%
Downside
7.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 27d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.9B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.4>=4.5. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Insider at 4.1. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 8.7, and Risk (lower is worse) at 7.1; the weakest are Insider at 4.1, Peer rank at 4.7, and Momentum at 5.4. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.03 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Cheap Valuation Strong Margins
Trip ifPEG ratio rises above 1.0 without a corresponding change in the growth outlook.
- P2Earnings Quality Red Flag
Trip ifFCF-to-net-income conversion stays below 10% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Dividend Yield Trap Warning
Trip ifThe dividend is cut by more than 25% within the next year.
- P4Negative Asymmetry Caps Add
Trip ifThe risk-adjusted asymmetry ratio falls below -1.