Value
5.4/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 0.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
SATL · Why this verdict
Why Satellogic (SATL) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Satellogic is burning cash at -82% of revenue with an operating margin of -104.2%, and it fails the combined growth-plus-margin Rule of 40 test. Bear case | Free cash flow burn should narrow toward breakeven as the business scales over the next several quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterHeavy cash burn is expected for a satellite-manufacturing and deployment company still building out its constellation, and may not indicate a structural profitability problem. | ||
Satellogic is growing revenue 80% year over year and is identified as an industry growth leader among its peers. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should stay above 50% YoY over the next several quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterHypergrowth off a small satellite-imaging revenue base can decelerate sharply once early contract wins are annualized. | ||
Insiders sold $97,700,000 of stock over the past 90 days, equal to over 12% of market cap, a level classified as extreme and the primary gate failure driving concern. Warnings | Insider selling should moderate well below the extreme threshold over the next two quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterA large one-time insider sale can reflect a single early investor or founder diversifying rather than an ongoing pattern of insider skepticism. | ||
Satellogic is oversold with an RSI of 27 while still trading above its 200-day moving average, an oversold condition within an ongoing uptrend. Momentum breakdown | RSI should recover toward a neutral 50 range while price holds above the 200-day moving average. | →Stable |
| CounterAn oversold RSI combined with heavy insider selling and severe cash burn increases the risk that this is the start of a trend reversal rather than a buyable dip. | ||
Satellogic is burning cash at -82% of revenue with an operating margin of -104.2%, and it fails the combined growth-plus-margin Rule of 40 test.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Free cash flow burn should narrow toward breakeven as the business scales over the next several quarters.
CounterHeavy cash burn is expected for a satellite-manufacturing and deployment company still building out its constellation, and may not indicate a structural profitability problem.
Satellogic is growing revenue 80% year over year and is identified as an industry growth leader among its peers.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should stay above 50% YoY over the next several quarters.
CounterHypergrowth off a small satellite-imaging revenue base can decelerate sharply once early contract wins are annualized.
Insiders sold $97,700,000 of stock over the past 90 days, equal to over 12% of market cap, a level classified as extreme and the primary gate failure driving concern.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Insider selling should moderate well below the extreme threshold over the next two quarters.
CounterA large one-time insider sale can reflect a single early investor or founder diversifying rather than an ongoing pattern of insider skepticism.
Satellogic is oversold with an RSI of 27 while still trading above its 200-day moving average, an oversold condition within an ongoing uptrend.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI should recover toward a neutral 50 range while price holds above the 200-day moving average.
CounterAn oversold RSI combined with heavy insider selling and severe cash burn increases the risk that this is the start of a trend reversal rather than a buyable dip.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Satellogic's strong revenue growth and oversold-in-uptrend momentum are offset by extreme insider selling and severe cash burn, consistent with a mixed-signals hold call.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.3 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 7.0 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 5.6 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -82% of revenue
- ▸Rule of 40: -1 (fail)
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 80% YoY
Momentum
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 8.4 |
| MACD | 3.6 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 0.5 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 31) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.3 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.9 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (5.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 138%
Insider
6.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $97,700,000 (12.723% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.3 |
| quality rank | 5.0 |
| growth rank | 9.0 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.2 |
| support resistance | 9.0 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 2.4 |
| days to cover | 9.3 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 5.9 |
- ▸High short interest: 15%
- ▸High IV: 133%
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULTPassed (5)
- ASYMMETRY:7.2>=1.5
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:37d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.5<4.5
- INSIDER:12.72%=EXTREME
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
7.17
Upside
+107.5%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -61% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: ASYMMETRY:7.2>=1.5. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Momentum at 3.5. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Catalyst at 7.9, and Sentiment at 7.8; the weakest are Momentum at 3.5, Quality at 4.2, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.6. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 7.17 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 30% YoY in a subsequent quarter.
- P2Extreme Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider selling exceeds 15% of market cap over a rolling 90-day window.
- P3Severe Cash Burn
Trip ifFree cash flow burn stays below -90% of revenue for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Oversold Momentum In Uptrend
Trip ifPrice falls below the 200-day moving average.