Value
7.4/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.5 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.1 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 17.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.18
- ▸Attractively valued
RLGT · Why this verdict
Why Radiant Logistics (RLGT) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Radiant Logistics shows a bullish golden-cross breakout setup — price above all major moving averages with a bullish MACD and RSI of 63 — indicating fresh technical momentum entering the position. Chart pattern detection | The stock should hold above its moving averages and continue trending higher over the next couple of months if the breakout is genuine. | →Stable |
| CounterA golden-cross breakout that immediately runs into a negative-asymmetry gate, already 8.2% past its target, risks stalling out or reversing shortly after triggering, a common false-breakout pattern. | ||
The company converts earnings into cash exceptionally well (163% FCF/NI) with a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, and trades at a low PEG ratio of 0.18, suggesting solid fundamentals underneath the technical breakout. Quality breakdown | FCF/NI conversion should stay above 100% and the Piotroski score should hold at 7 or above over the next several quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterFreight-forwarding and logistics businesses are highly cyclical, so strong current cash conversion could compress quickly in a freight-demand downturn regardless of the company's balance-sheet quality. | ||
The stock has already run 8.2% past its V8 analyst target, turning the V9 asymmetry ratio negative (-0.74) and signaling the near-term risk/reward is unfavorable despite the fresh breakout. Estimated upside | The asymmetry ratio should recover above 1.5, via a pullback or a target increase, before this becomes an attractive fresh entry. | →Stable |
| CounterA confirmed breakout with rising volume could justify analysts raising the price target, restoring favorable asymmetry without requiring the stock to fall. | ||
The options market shows an extremely elevated put/call ratio of 61.00, an unusual reading that suggests either heavy hedging activity or a very thin, distorted options market rather than typical positioning. Risk breakdown | The put/call ratio should normalize toward more typical single-digit levels as options volume increases and hedging activity settles. | →Stable |
| CounterGiven the company's small size and likely thin options liquidity, a put/call ratio this extreme may simply reflect a handful of contracts trading and carry no real predictive signal about the stock. | ||
Insiders have sold notably over the last 90 days ($655,581, 0.148% of market cap), a bearish signal that compounds the negative-asymmetry and quality-below-floor concerns. Insider transaction read | Insider activity should moderate toward neutral, signaling insiders still see value at current prices. | →Stable |
| CounterThis level of selling is still a small fraction of market cap and could reflect routine diversification unrelated to the company's near-term outlook. | ||
Radiant Logistics shows a bullish golden-cross breakout setup — price above all major moving averages with a bullish MACD and RSI of 63 — indicating fresh technical momentum entering the position.
→StableChart pattern detection
- Expectation
- The stock should hold above its moving averages and continue trending higher over the next couple of months if the breakout is genuine.
CounterA golden-cross breakout that immediately runs into a negative-asymmetry gate, already 8.2% past its target, risks stalling out or reversing shortly after triggering, a common false-breakout pattern.
The company converts earnings into cash exceptionally well (163% FCF/NI) with a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, and trades at a low PEG ratio of 0.18, suggesting solid fundamentals underneath the technical breakout.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF/NI conversion should stay above 100% and the Piotroski score should hold at 7 or above over the next several quarters.
CounterFreight-forwarding and logistics businesses are highly cyclical, so strong current cash conversion could compress quickly in a freight-demand downturn regardless of the company's balance-sheet quality.
The stock has already run 8.2% past its V8 analyst target, turning the V9 asymmetry ratio negative (-0.74) and signaling the near-term risk/reward is unfavorable despite the fresh breakout.
→StableEstimated upside
- Expectation
- The asymmetry ratio should recover above 1.5, via a pullback or a target increase, before this becomes an attractive fresh entry.
CounterA confirmed breakout with rising volume could justify analysts raising the price target, restoring favorable asymmetry without requiring the stock to fall.
The options market shows an extremely elevated put/call ratio of 61.00, an unusual reading that suggests either heavy hedging activity or a very thin, distorted options market rather than typical positioning.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- The put/call ratio should normalize toward more typical single-digit levels as options volume increases and hedging activity settles.
CounterGiven the company's small size and likely thin options liquidity, a put/call ratio this extreme may simply reflect a handful of contracts trading and carry no real predictive signal about the stock.
Insiders have sold notably over the last 90 days ($655,581, 0.148% of market cap), a bearish signal that compounds the negative-asymmetry and quality-below-floor concerns.
→StableInsider transaction read
- Expectation
- Insider activity should moderate toward neutral, signaling insiders still see value at current prices.
CounterThis level of selling is still a small fraction of market cap and could reflect routine diversification unrelated to the company's near-term outlook.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Radiant Logistics just triggered a bullish golden-cross breakout backed by strong cash conversion, but the stock has already run past its analyst target, turning near-term asymmetry negative, and recent insider selling adds a cautionary signal.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.3 |
| ROA | 1.6 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.5 |
| Net margin | 0.9 |
| Current ratio | 5.8 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 163% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
6.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.5 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 6.6 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 2.9 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.2 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $655,581 (0.146% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.3 |
| quality rank | 2.4 |
| growth rank | 3.8 |
Technical
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.5 |
| support resistance | 2.3 |
| 52w position | 9.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.2 |
| days to cover | 6.7 |
| volatility | 5.5 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 1.1 |
| beta | 8.1 |
| debt equity | 8.6 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 91.50
- ▸High IV: 73%
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:4.9>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:69d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.0=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.96
Upside
-7.8%
Downside
8.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 63, MACD bullish
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.5B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Catalyst at 7.5 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: ASYMMETRY:-1.0=NEGATIVE.
The strongest dimensions are Catalyst at 7.5, Value at 7.4, and Growth at 6.2; the weakest are Quality at 3.8, Peer rank at 4.3, and Technical at 4.8. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.96 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Golden Cross Breakout Setup
Trip ifPrice falls below the 200-day moving average within 2 months of the breakout.
- P2Strong Cash Conversion Value
Trip ifFCF/NI conversion falls below 80% from the current 163%.
- P3Target Reached Negative Asymmetry
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio stays below -0.5 for 2 consecutive months.
- P4Extreme Put Call Ratio
Trip ifPut/call ratio stays above 40 for 2 consecutive months.
- P5Recent Insider Selling
Trip ifNet insider selling exceeds $1.5 million over a rolling 90-day period.