Value
8.0/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.0 |
| P/S | 8.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.1 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.03
- ▸Attractively valued
RBB · Why this verdict
Why RBB Bancorp (RBB) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
RBB Bancorp is a profitable small regional bank with a 4-of-4 earnings beat streak averaging 26% surprise, 34% margins and an attractive 11.1x forward P/E, but the price is 4.9% above the analyst target.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Growth is moderate with a revenue growth score of 5.9 and earnings growth of 7.1, and the bank has no competitive moat. Quality breakdown | Earnings growth stays above 7% so valuation remains supported. | →Stable |
| CounterPeer quality rank is only 4.1/10 and a regional bank without a moat competes on price for deposits and loans, limiting returns. | ||
RBB has beaten EPS estimates in the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 26.2%, most recently $0.74 versus $0.58 expected in October 2026. Catalyst breakdown | EPS keeps meeting or beating estimates through the January 2027 report and beyond. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterEarlier results include sharp misses (-65.8% in April 2025 and -29.8% in February 2025), so the current streak may reflect low estimates rather than stable earnings. | ||
RBB trades at a forward P/E of 11.1x with strong margins of 34% and a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9. Valuation breakdown | Earnings growth holds forward P/E below roughly 12x over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterROE is low at a 2.8 score and there is no competitive moat, so the bank earns thin returns on its equity despite wide margins. | ||
The $26.44 price is 4.9% above the $25.14 analyst target, leaving negative reward-to-risk of -0.98 against 5.0% downside to the stop. Upside pct | Analyst targets are raised above the current price as earnings keep beating estimates. | →Stable |
| CounterWith the target already exceeded, further gains would depend on multiple expansion, and an elevated put/call ratio of 2.00 suggests traders hedging a pullback. | ||
Momentum is strong at 7.4/10 with a golden cross, rising on-balance volume, price above the 200-day average and institutions accumulating. Momentum breakdown | Price holds above its 200-day average with continued volume accumulation. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterPrice is near the top of its 52-week range and the breakout may fade if earnings growth slows. | ||
Growth is moderate with a revenue growth score of 5.9 and earnings growth of 7.1, and the bank has no competitive moat.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings growth stays above 7% so valuation remains supported.
CounterPeer quality rank is only 4.1/10 and a regional bank without a moat competes on price for deposits and loans, limiting returns.
RBB has beaten EPS estimates in the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 26.2%, most recently $0.74 versus $0.58 expected in October 2026.
↓DeterioratingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- EPS keeps meeting or beating estimates through the January 2027 report and beyond.
CounterEarlier results include sharp misses (-65.8% in April 2025 and -29.8% in February 2025), so the current streak may reflect low estimates rather than stable earnings.
RBB trades at a forward P/E of 11.1x with strong margins of 34% and a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings growth holds forward P/E below roughly 12x over the next 12 months.
CounterROE is low at a 2.8 score and there is no competitive moat, so the bank earns thin returns on its equity despite wide margins.
The $26.44 price is 4.9% above the $25.14 analyst target, leaving negative reward-to-risk of -0.98 against 5.0% downside to the stop.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Analyst targets are raised above the current price as earnings keep beating estimates.
CounterWith the target already exceeded, further gains would depend on multiple expansion, and an elevated put/call ratio of 2.00 suggests traders hedging a pullback.
Momentum is strong at 7.4/10 with a golden cross, rising on-balance volume, price above the 200-day average and institutions accumulating.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price holds above its 200-day average with continued volume accumulation.
CounterPrice is near the top of its 52-week range and the breakout may fade if earnings growth slows.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.8 |
| ROA | 0.7 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 34%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
6.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.9 |
| EPS growth | 7.1 |
Momentum
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 7.4 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 7.0 |
| Volume | 6.7 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.5 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.6 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.50 (n=1)
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.4 |
| quality rank | 4.1 |
| growth rank | 5.6 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.2 |
| support resistance | 4.7 |
| 52w position | 8.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.4 |
| days to cover | 5.4 |
| volatility | 6.8 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 4.3 |
| beta | 6.9 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.00
Catalyst
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD_NO_UPSIDEPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.5>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.50
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:88d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.7=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.73
Upside
-3.7%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.4B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.4B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.5>=5.5. Top dim: Value at 8.0; weakest: Quality at 5.2. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.0, Insider at 7.3, and Catalyst at 6.8; the weakest are Quality at 5.2, Risk (lower is worse) at 5.4, and Peer rank at 5.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.73 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Attractive Valuation Strong Margins
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 14x from the current 11.1x.
- P3Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice falls below the $25.30 stop level while the analyst target stays below $26.
- P4Breakout Momentum Institutional Buying
Trip ifPrice closes below the 200-day moving average for 10 consecutive trading days.
- P5Modest Growth And No Moat
Trip ifEarnings growth falls below 0% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.