Value
7.9/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.7 |
| P/S | 7.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.03
- ▸Attractively valued
RBB · Why this verdict
Why RBB Bancorp (RBB) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The bank shows strong operating quality — 32% margins and a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 — even though it lacks an economic moat, indicating solid execution in a commoditized regional banking market. Quality breakdown | The Piotroski F-Score should hold at 7 or above and margins should stay near 30% over the next several quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterWithout a moat, strong current margins can compress quickly if net interest margins face pressure from rate cuts or deposit competition. | ||
RBB Bancorp trades cheaply on a growth-adjusted basis, with a forward P/E of 10.8x and a PEG ratio of 0.03 against 61% YoY earnings growth, suggesting the market hasn't caught up to its growth profile. Valuation breakdown | The PEG ratio should remain well below 1.0 and the forward P/E should re-rate higher, toward 13-15x, as growth persists. | →Stable |
| CounterThe 61% YoY growth rate may reflect an easy prior-year comparison rather than a repeatable trend, in which case the cheap multiple is appropriately pricing decelerating growth ahead. | ||
RBB has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 27.5%, and the next print is 16 days out, giving the position a near-term earnings catalyst. Avg surprise pct | The beat streak should continue with a positive average surprise at the next earnings date. | →Stable |
| CounterA 27.5% average surprise is unusually large and could reflect conservative guidance being reset, raising the risk of a miss once expectations catch up. | ||
The V9 engine's asymmetry gate has turned negative (-0.99), with the stock already 12.8% past its analyst target and near its 52-week high, indicating the near-term risk/reward has become unfavorable despite the fundamentals. Reward-to-risk math | The asymmetry ratio should improve back above 1.5, via a pullback or target upgrade, before this becomes an attractive fresh entry. | →Stable |
| CounterIf the strong earnings momentum continues, analysts could raise price targets faster than the stock rises, restoring a favorable asymmetry without any price decline. | ||
Insiders have been net sellers recently (signal: bearish, $696,874 sold across 6 transactions over 90 days), a modest headwind against the otherwise bullish earnings and growth narrative. Insider transaction read | Insider activity should shift toward neutral or net buying if insiders still see value at current prices. | →Stable |
| CounterAt just 0.15% of market cap, this selling is routine and likely reflects personal diversification rather than a signal about the bank's prospects. | ||
The bank shows strong operating quality — 32% margins and a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 — even though it lacks an economic moat, indicating solid execution in a commoditized regional banking market.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The Piotroski F-Score should hold at 7 or above and margins should stay near 30% over the next several quarters.
CounterWithout a moat, strong current margins can compress quickly if net interest margins face pressure from rate cuts or deposit competition.
RBB Bancorp trades cheaply on a growth-adjusted basis, with a forward P/E of 10.8x and a PEG ratio of 0.03 against 61% YoY earnings growth, suggesting the market hasn't caught up to its growth profile.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The PEG ratio should remain well below 1.0 and the forward P/E should re-rate higher, toward 13-15x, as growth persists.
CounterThe 61% YoY growth rate may reflect an easy prior-year comparison rather than a repeatable trend, in which case the cheap multiple is appropriately pricing decelerating growth ahead.
RBB has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 27.5%, and the next print is 16 days out, giving the position a near-term earnings catalyst.
→StableAvg surprise pct
- Expectation
- The beat streak should continue with a positive average surprise at the next earnings date.
CounterA 27.5% average surprise is unusually large and could reflect conservative guidance being reset, raising the risk of a miss once expectations catch up.
The V9 engine's asymmetry gate has turned negative (-0.99), with the stock already 12.8% past its analyst target and near its 52-week high, indicating the near-term risk/reward has become unfavorable despite the fundamentals.
→StableReward-to-risk math
- Expectation
- The asymmetry ratio should improve back above 1.5, via a pullback or target upgrade, before this becomes an attractive fresh entry.
CounterIf the strong earnings momentum continues, analysts could raise price targets faster than the stock rises, restoring a favorable asymmetry without any price decline.
Insiders have been net sellers recently (signal: bearish, $696,874 sold across 6 transactions over 90 days), a modest headwind against the otherwise bullish earnings and growth narrative.
→StableInsider transaction read
- Expectation
- Insider activity should shift toward neutral or net buying if insiders still see value at current prices.
CounterAt just 0.15% of market cap, this selling is routine and likely reflects personal diversification rather than a signal about the bank's prospects.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
RBB Bancorp combines a growth-adjusted bargain valuation and a strong earnings-beat streak with a near-term catalyst, but the stock has already run past its analyst target, turning the risk/reward unfavorable and coinciding with recent insider selling.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.6 |
| ROA | 0.7 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 32%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 61% YoY
Momentum
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 3.1 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.1 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.6 |
| erm sentiment | 10.0 |
- ▸Estimates rising as sentiment proxy (+42.2%)
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $696,874 (0.151% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
6.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.1 |
| quality rank | 4.1 |
| growth rank | 9.5 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.6 |
| support resistance | 4.9 |
| 52w position | 8.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.2 |
| days to cover | 9.1 |
| volatility | 4.5 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 2.3 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.9 |
- ▸High IV: 66%
- ▸Above max pain $20
Catalyst
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 9.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
- ▸Estimates up 42.2% (30d)
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Earnings in 13 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=+1Passed (4)
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.9<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-1.2=NEGATIVE
Warning (2)
- INSIDER:0.15%=MODERATE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:13d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.22
Upside
-9.7%
Downside
7.9%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupRange Bound — RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 13d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.5B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: 8K:CLEAN. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Momentum at 3.9. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 7.9, and Catalyst at 7.9; the weakest are Momentum at 3.9, Insider at 5.0, and Quality at 5.4. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.22 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Growth Adjusted Cheap Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E stays below 8x while YoY earnings growth falls below 20% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Strong Operating Quality
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 5 out of 9 in the next reported quarter.
- P3Near Term Earnings Catalyst
Trip ifEarnings surprise falls below 0% (a miss) at the next reported quarter.
- P4Asymmetry Turned Negative
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio stays below -0.5 for 2 consecutive months.
- P5Recent Insider Selling
Trip ifNet insider selling exceeds 0.5% of market cap over a rolling 90-day period.