Value
8.2/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 6.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.06
- ▸Attractively valued
PVH · Why this verdict
Why PVH (PVH) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
PVH Corp. has delivered a perfect 4-for-4 earnings beat streak with an average surprise of 16%, trades at a forward P/E of 6.5x with a PEG of 0.06, and shows strong free cash flow at 295% of net income, but the stock is priced at or above analyst targets and carries high short interest of 13% pointing to skepticism about its concentrated brand portfolio.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Tommy Hilfiger and Calvin Klein account for all of PVH's brand revenue, creating a dual-brand concentration where either brand's loss of consumer relevance or licensing deterioration would have a disproportionate impact on total company earnings. Bear case | Both brands maintain positive revenue trajectory with no material decline in brand health metrics over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterBoth Tommy Hilfiger and Calvin Klein are globally recognized premium brands with decades of customer loyalty; the concentration risk is mitigated by the brands' established market positions. | ||
PVH has beaten analyst estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 16%, while trading at a forward P/E of 6.5x and PEG ratio of 0.06, indicating the market is pricing in substantial risk for a business that continues to outperform expectations. Earnings | Earnings beats continue in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters and the forward P/E expands above 8x as investor confidence returns. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA PEG of 0.06 reflects very limited near-term growth rather than deep value; revenue is barely growing and analysts have already priced the stock near full value on a near-term basis. | ||
Free cash flow conversion of 295% relative to net income and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 indicate that the business generates substantially more cash than its accounting earnings reflect, providing financial flexibility for buybacks, debt reduction, or dividends. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion remains above 200% for the next 12 months as working capital management continues to improve. | →Stable |
| CounterBusiness quality scores at 5.0/10 overall, with low ROE of 1.1% and operating margin of only 2.3% on an accounting basis, suggesting the high FCF conversion is a temporary phenomenon rather than a structural strength. | ||
Short interest at 13% of float combined with a revenue growth rate near zero and the stock already at analyst price targets suggests that short sellers are positioned for an expected deceleration in execution that would disappoint the current consensus. Risk breakdown | Short interest falls below 7% within 12 months as sustained earnings beats convert bears to bulls. | →Stable |
| CounterThe earnings beat streak of 4-for-4 demonstrates that the company is actively defying the bear thesis; short sellers have been wrong four consecutive quarters and may be forced to cover. | ||
Tommy Hilfiger and Calvin Klein account for all of PVH's brand revenue, creating a dual-brand concentration where either brand's loss of consumer relevance or licensing deterioration would have a disproportionate impact on total company earnings.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Both brands maintain positive revenue trajectory with no material decline in brand health metrics over 12 months.
CounterBoth Tommy Hilfiger and Calvin Klein are globally recognized premium brands with decades of customer loyalty; the concentration risk is mitigated by the brands' established market positions.
PVH has beaten analyst estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 16%, while trading at a forward P/E of 6.5x and PEG ratio of 0.06, indicating the market is pricing in substantial risk for a business that continues to outperform expectations.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings beats continue in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters and the forward P/E expands above 8x as investor confidence returns.
CounterA PEG of 0.06 reflects very limited near-term growth rather than deep value; revenue is barely growing and analysts have already priced the stock near full value on a near-term basis.
Free cash flow conversion of 295% relative to net income and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 indicate that the business generates substantially more cash than its accounting earnings reflect, providing financial flexibility for buybacks, debt reduction, or dividends.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion remains above 200% for the next 12 months as working capital management continues to improve.
CounterBusiness quality scores at 5.0/10 overall, with low ROE of 1.1% and operating margin of only 2.3% on an accounting basis, suggesting the high FCF conversion is a temporary phenomenon rather than a structural strength.
Short interest at 13% of float combined with a revenue growth rate near zero and the stock already at analyst price targets suggests that short sellers are positioned for an expected deceleration in execution that would disappoint the current consensus.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Short interest falls below 7% within 12 months as sustained earnings beats convert bears to bulls.
CounterThe earnings beat streak of 4-for-4 demonstrates that the company is actively defying the bear thesis; short sellers have been wrong four consecutive quarters and may be forced to cover.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 2.5 |
| Gross margin | 7.5 |
| Op margin | 2.1 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.9 |
| FCF quality | 5.2 |
| Moat | 4.0 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸FCF-positive but moderate margins (FCF margin 6%, FCF yield 13.5%)
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
1.7/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 1.7 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -3%
Momentum
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 9.4 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 2.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 6.3 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.40 (n=1)
Insider
7.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 6.5 |
| holder change | 7.6 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider buying — $999,994 (0.025% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.9 |
| quality rank | 1.5 |
| growth rank | 1.5 |
Technical
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.0 |
| support resistance | 2.0 |
| 52w position | 6.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 3.3 |
| days to cover | 5.5 |
| volatility | 4.4 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 5.8 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 4.1 |
| debt equity | 5.8 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 3.38
- ▸Above max pain $55
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 9.7 |
| dividend safety | 8.5 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 0.2% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:7.1>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:34d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.4=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.37
Upside
-5.3%
Downside
14.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 63, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.76>1.3, MCap $3.9B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's -0.4=NEGATIVE outcome against Value at 8.2 and asymmetric R:R of -0.37.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.2, Catalyst at 7.2, and Momentum at 7.1; the weakest are Growth at 1.7, Quality at 3.8, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.37 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat And Value
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below -5% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
- P2Brand Concentration Risk
Trip ifRevenue from the Tommy Hilfiger or Calvin Klein brand declines by more than 10% in any single annual report.
- P3Free Cash Flow Quality
Trip ifFree cash flow conversion falls below 100% of net income for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4High Short Interest Weak Growth
Trip ifShort interest rises above 18% of float for more than 45 consecutive days.