Value
8.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.1 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.1 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.36
- ▸Attractively valued
POST · Why this verdict
Why Post Holdings (POST) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Post Holdings is an attractively valued packaged food company with a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak and a PEG ratio of 0.21, but the combination of a death cross, 17% short interest, and high leverage at 2.4 times debt-to-equity creates meaningful risk that needs to be monitored before the value thesis can fully materialize.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Post Holdings has beaten consensus EPS in all four of the last four quarters with an average positive surprise of 18.21%, demonstrating consistent ability to outperform analyst expectations even in a challenging input-cost environment. Earnings | The company beats consensus EPS in at least 3 of the next 4 reported quarters, maintaining the beat streak. | →Stable |
| CounterAverage surprise of 18% is unusually high and may reflect deliberately conservative guidance; the bear case is that as analysts reset models higher, future beats become smaller or disappear. | ||
Post Holdings trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 10.6 times with a PEG ratio of only 0.21, placing it among the most attractively valued names in the packaged food sector on an earnings-growth-adjusted basis. Valuation breakdown | The forward price-to-earnings ratio remains below 15 times as earnings grow, or the stock price appreciates by more than 15% toward the analyst target of $106.43 within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterLow PEG ratios in leveraged consumer staples companies often reflect risk premiums related to debt burden and structural growth challenges rather than true undervaluation. | ||
The company carries debt-to-equity of 2.4, well above what most consumer staples investors find comfortable, and the stock is in a confirmed downtrend with the 200-day moving average declining at negative 1.6% per 30 days and a death cross in effect. Bear case | The debt-to-equity ratio falls below 2.0 within the next 2 annual reporting periods as cash flow is directed toward debt reduction. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterPost has used leverage strategically for acquisitions that drive earnings growth; the high debt is historically intentional and the beat streak suggests the business generates cash to service it. | ||
Short interest stands at 17% of float, one of the highest levels among consumer staples peers, creating a structural overhang that limits near-term upside and introduces additional volatility risk around any negative news. Risk breakdown | Short interest falls below 10% of float over the next 6 months as the value thesis attracts long buyers and short sellers cover. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterHigh short interest combined with a strong beat streak and cheap valuation sets up a potential short squeeze if the next earnings result is materially positive. | ||
Post Holdings has beaten consensus EPS in all four of the last four quarters with an average positive surprise of 18.21%, demonstrating consistent ability to outperform analyst expectations even in a challenging input-cost environment.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The company beats consensus EPS in at least 3 of the next 4 reported quarters, maintaining the beat streak.
CounterAverage surprise of 18% is unusually high and may reflect deliberately conservative guidance; the bear case is that as analysts reset models higher, future beats become smaller or disappear.
Post Holdings trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 10.6 times with a PEG ratio of only 0.21, placing it among the most attractively valued names in the packaged food sector on an earnings-growth-adjusted basis.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward price-to-earnings ratio remains below 15 times as earnings grow, or the stock price appreciates by more than 15% toward the analyst target of $106.43 within 12 months.
CounterLow PEG ratios in leveraged consumer staples companies often reflect risk premiums related to debt burden and structural growth challenges rather than true undervaluation.
The company carries debt-to-equity of 2.4, well above what most consumer staples investors find comfortable, and the stock is in a confirmed downtrend with the 200-day moving average declining at negative 1.6% per 30 days and a death cross in effect.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- The debt-to-equity ratio falls below 2.0 within the next 2 annual reporting periods as cash flow is directed toward debt reduction.
CounterPost has used leverage strategically for acquisitions that drive earnings growth; the high debt is historically intentional and the beat streak suggests the business generates cash to service it.
Short interest stands at 17% of float, one of the highest levels among consumer staples peers, creating a structural overhang that limits near-term upside and introduces additional volatility risk around any negative news.
↓DeterioratingRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Short interest falls below 10% of float over the next 6 months as the value thesis attracts long buyers and short sellers cover.
CounterHigh short interest combined with a strong beat streak and cheap valuation sets up a potential short squeeze if the next earnings result is materially positive.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.8 |
| ROA | 2.8 |
| Gross margin | 1.8 |
| Op margin | 4.1 |
| Net margin | 1.7 |
| Current ratio | 6.6 |
| FCF quality | 9.5 |
| Moat | 3.1 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 135% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
5.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.0 |
| EPS growth | 8.2 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -2%
Momentum
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 2.9 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 5.4 |
- ▸Overbought bear rally (RSI 71)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.6%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.4 |
| Analyst rating | 6.6 |
| Price target | 7.9 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (6.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 22%
Insider
2.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 3.9 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $32,289,106 (0.915% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.6 |
| quality rank | 4.4 |
| growth rank | 3.1 |
Technical
2.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.1 |
| support resistance | 2.2 |
| 52w position | 3.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 2.3 |
| days to cover | 3.8 |
| volatility | 5.6 |
| put call | 6.7 |
| implied vol | 5.7 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 2.5 |
- ▸High short interest: 15%
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 9.3 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (4)
- MOMENTUM:5.1>=4.5
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:21d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:0.5<1.5@spot
- INSIDER:0.92%=HEAVY
Warning (3)
- MOMENTUM:5.1<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.1>=5.0 recovering
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
0.53
Upside
+5.8%
Downside
11.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 71
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 21d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $3.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output fired on the hard insider floor: insider score of 2.7 sits below the 3.0 threshold (heavy insider selling), which triggers SELL regardless of other dimensions. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:0.5<1.5@spot, INSIDER:0.92%=HEAVY) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.53 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.4, Catalyst at 7.1, and Sentiment at 6.9; the weakest are Technical at 2.7, Insider at 2.7, and Peer rank at 3.8. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 3 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.53 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Deep Value Low Peg
Trip ifThe forward price-to-earnings ratio rises above 18 times without a corresponding upward revision in the earnings growth estimate.
- P2Consistent Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 reported quarters.
- P3Leverage And Momentum Double Headwind
Trip ifDebt-to-equity ratio rises above 3.0 in any reported period over the next 12 months.
- P4High Short Interest Overhang
Trip ifShort interest rises above 22% of float at any point over the next 6 months.