Value
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.6 |
| P/S | 8.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.6 |
| PEG | 6.3 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 19.3x
- ▸PEG: 1.18
PODD · Why this verdict
Why Insulet (PODD) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Insulet is a high-quality medical device compounder with 24% YoY growth, a wide moat and a 4-of-4 earnings beat streak, but the price sits just 1.0% below the analyst target after a 58% drawdown and a confirmed downtrend.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Insulet is growing revenue 24% YoY and is ranked an industry growth leader, with quarterly revenue of $801.7M in June 2026 versus $649.1M a year earlier. Growth breakdown | Quarterly revenue keeps rising toward the $832.6M next-quarter estimate and stays above $800M. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth confidence is low at 0.33 because only revenue growth is measured, and the Omnipod platform is a single-product concentration that can slow abruptly. | ||
Insulet has a wide economic moat with ROE of 26% and a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, qualifying as a compounder with strong returns and growth. Quality breakdown | ROE stays above 20% and the F-Score stays at 8 or higher over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterEarnings quality is flagged with free cash flow at only 63% of net income, and sole-sourced components create supply risk to the moat. | ||
Insulet has beaten EPS estimates in all 4 recent quarters with an average surprise of 11.9%, including $1.66 versus $1.45 expected in August 2026. Catalyst breakdown | EPS keeps beating estimates in the November 2026 report and later quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe next report is 11 days away and a stock that has already fallen 58% from its high may react poorly to even a modest beat. | ||
The $149.01 price is only 1.0% below the $150.46 analyst target, with reward-to-risk of 0.07 against 14.1% downside to the stop. Upside pct | Analyst targets are raised above $170 as earnings beats continue, restoring upside. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterWith almost no upside to target and 14.1% downside, the setup is unfavorable at the current price. | ||
The stock remains in a confirmed downtrend, below a 200-day average falling 11.7% per 30 days, with RSI at 73 describing a bear rally, plus Omnipod product concentration and sole-sourced components. Momentum breakdown | Price reclaims its 200-day average and the slope of that average flattens within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe overbought bounce may fade as a bear rally, and a single product platform with sole-source supply leaves the company exposed to a disruption. | ||
Insulet is growing revenue 24% YoY and is ranked an industry growth leader, with quarterly revenue of $801.7M in June 2026 versus $649.1M a year earlier.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue keeps rising toward the $832.6M next-quarter estimate and stays above $800M.
CounterGrowth confidence is low at 0.33 because only revenue growth is measured, and the Omnipod platform is a single-product concentration that can slow abruptly.
Insulet has a wide economic moat with ROE of 26% and a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, qualifying as a compounder with strong returns and growth.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- ROE stays above 20% and the F-Score stays at 8 or higher over the next 12 months.
CounterEarnings quality is flagged with free cash flow at only 63% of net income, and sole-sourced components create supply risk to the moat.
Insulet has beaten EPS estimates in all 4 recent quarters with an average surprise of 11.9%, including $1.66 versus $1.45 expected in August 2026.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- EPS keeps beating estimates in the November 2026 report and later quarters.
CounterThe next report is 11 days away and a stock that has already fallen 58% from its high may react poorly to even a modest beat.
The $149.01 price is only 1.0% below the $150.46 analyst target, with reward-to-risk of 0.07 against 14.1% downside to the stop.
↓DeterioratingUpside pct
- Expectation
- Analyst targets are raised above $170 as earnings beats continue, restoring upside.
CounterWith almost no upside to target and 14.1% downside, the setup is unfavorable at the current price.
The stock remains in a confirmed downtrend, below a 200-day average falling 11.7% per 30 days, with RSI at 73 describing a bear rally, plus Omnipod product concentration and sole-sourced components.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price reclaims its 200-day average and the slope of that average flattens within 12 months.
CounterThe overbought bounce may fade as a bear rally, and a single product platform with sole-source supply leaves the company exposed to a disruption.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 8.7 |
| ROA | 6.5 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 6.5 |
| Net margin | 6.1 |
| Current ratio | 8.5 |
| FCF quality | 4.9 |
| Moat | 8.2 |
| Rule of 40 | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 26%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 63% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
8.4/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 8.4 |
- ▸Strong growth: 24% YoY
Momentum
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 2.7 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 1.0 |
- ▸Overbought bear rally (RSI 75)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -11.5%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 6.8 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 7.6 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider buying — $162,217 (0.002% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
6.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.1 |
| quality rank | 8.6 |
| growth rank | 8.2 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
0.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.5 |
| support resistance | 0.8 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.4 |
| days to cover | 7.2 |
| volatility | 4.7 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 2.9 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.6 |
| debt equity | 7.0 |
- ▸High IV: 62%
- ▸Above max pain $90
- ▸Concentration risks: 3 HIGH, 4 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 4.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 8.4 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 5 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.9>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:0.1<1.5@spot
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.9>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
0.07
Upside
+1.0%
Downside
14.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 75
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -58% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.9>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 8.4; weakest: Technical at 0.8. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.4, Quality at 7.5, and Catalyst at 6.8; the weakest are Technical at 0.8, Value at 5.5, and Risk (lower is worse) at 5.8. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.07 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Growth Industry Leader
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 15% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Wide Moat High Quality
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income ratio falls below 50%.
- P3Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Price Near Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice falls below the $140.29 stop level while the analyst target stays below $155.
- P5Downtrend And Product Concentration
Trip ifPrice drops to below $120, a further decline of more than 19% from the current $149.01.