Value
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.1 |
| P/S | 8.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.2 |
| PEG | 7.5 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 14.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.92
- ▸Attractively valued
PLNT · Why this verdict
Why Planet Fitness (PLNT) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Planet Fitness is a high-quality fitness chain with a perfect 9-out-of-9 Piotroski F-Score and a perfect 4-for-4 earnings beat streak trading at a PEG of 0.86, but is currently in a confirmed technical downtrend with its 200-day moving average declining at 8.8% per month and falling analyst estimates.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Planet Fitness ranks best-in-class among leisure peers with a quality score of 7.7/10, a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, operating margins of 18%, and ranks in the top decile for both quality and growth within its peer group, reflecting the durability of its low-cost fitness membership model. Quality breakdown | Operating margin remains above 15% and the Piotroski F-Score stays at 8 or above for the next 4 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh margins in the low-cost gym segment can be competed away quickly if rivals undercut Planet Fitness's $10/month price point, and franchise-model revenue recognition can mask underlying unit economics weakness. | ||
Planet Fitness has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 10.5%, with actual EPS ranging from $0.73 to $0.86, demonstrating consistent ability to manage costs and grow membership above analyst expectations. Earnings | The company beats earnings estimates in the next 2 consecutive quarterly reports due in approximately 50 days. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterForward earnings estimates are trending down by 6.3% in the last 30 days, which is a leading indicator that analysts expect upcoming results to disappoint despite the historical beat streak. | ||
At a forward P/E of 13.9x and PEG of 0.86, Planet Fitness is attractively priced relative to earnings growth within the leisure sector, with a value score of 7.5/10 and analyst consensus pointing to 33% upside to a price target of approximately $60. Valuation breakdown | The stock reaches the analyst target range near $60 within 12 months as technical headwinds resolve and the growth rate is sustained. | →Stable |
| CounterA PEG of 0.86 is only attractive if the earnings growth rate holds — falling estimates of -6.3% over 30 days suggest the 'G' in the PEG denominator is about to shrink, making the current multiple less attractive than it appears. | ||
The stock is in a confirmed downtrend with the 200-day moving average declining at 8.8% per month — the steepest moving average slope decline across this analysis batch — and high short interest of 11% adds additional selling pressure that must be resolved before the fundamental case can be expressed. Warnings | The stock reclaims its 200-day moving average and holds above it for 20 consecutive trading days, confirming the downtrend has ended. | →Stable |
| CounterSteep 200-day moving average declines sometimes represent capitulation — the worst-case scenario for bearish price action — and high short interest can fuel sharp recovery moves when fundamentals surprise positively. | ||
Planet Fitness ranks best-in-class among leisure peers with a quality score of 7.7/10, a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, operating margins of 18%, and ranks in the top decile for both quality and growth within its peer group, reflecting the durability of its low-cost fitness membership model.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Operating margin remains above 15% and the Piotroski F-Score stays at 8 or above for the next 4 quarters.
CounterHigh margins in the low-cost gym segment can be competed away quickly if rivals undercut Planet Fitness's $10/month price point, and franchise-model revenue recognition can mask underlying unit economics weakness.
Planet Fitness has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 10.5%, with actual EPS ranging from $0.73 to $0.86, demonstrating consistent ability to manage costs and grow membership above analyst expectations.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- The company beats earnings estimates in the next 2 consecutive quarterly reports due in approximately 50 days.
CounterForward earnings estimates are trending down by 6.3% in the last 30 days, which is a leading indicator that analysts expect upcoming results to disappoint despite the historical beat streak.
At a forward P/E of 13.9x and PEG of 0.86, Planet Fitness is attractively priced relative to earnings growth within the leisure sector, with a value score of 7.5/10 and analyst consensus pointing to 33% upside to a price target of approximately $60.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock reaches the analyst target range near $60 within 12 months as technical headwinds resolve and the growth rate is sustained.
CounterA PEG of 0.86 is only attractive if the earnings growth rate holds — falling estimates of -6.3% over 30 days suggest the 'G' in the PEG denominator is about to shrink, making the current multiple less attractive than it appears.
The stock is in a confirmed downtrend with the 200-day moving average declining at 8.8% per month — the steepest moving average slope decline across this analysis batch — and high short interest of 11% adds additional selling pressure that must be resolved before the fundamental case can be expressed.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- The stock reclaims its 200-day moving average and holds above it for 20 consecutive trading days, confirming the downtrend has ended.
CounterSteep 200-day moving average declines sometimes represent capitulation — the worst-case scenario for bearish price action — and high short interest can fuel sharp recovery moves when fundamentals surprise positively.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 5.7 |
| Gross margin | 7.7 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 9.1 |
| Current ratio | 5.8 |
| FCF quality | 5.0 |
| Moat | 5.9 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong margins: 18%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 66% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
5.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.6 |
| EPS growth | 7.2 |
Momentum
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 2.4 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 1.1 |
- ▸Overbought bear rally (RSI 78)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -12.9%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.2 |
| Analyst rating | 7.3 |
| Price target | 8.1 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.44 (n=2)
- ▸Analyst upside: 25%
Insider
3.8/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.5 |
| holder change | 2.8 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸Insider buying (low materiality) — $253,519 (0.006% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.9 |
| quality rank | 8.5 |
| growth rank | 3.6 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
1.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.5 |
| support resistance | 1.3 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 2.7 |
| days to cover | 7.8 |
| volatility | 3.0 |
| put call | 7.9 |
| implied vol | 1.3 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 6.8 |
- ▸High IV: 72%
Catalyst
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.8 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 6 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (4)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.50
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (4)
- MOMENTUM:4.1<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.8<1.5@spot
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
0.81
Upside
+12.1%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 78
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -54% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.4 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Sentiment at 7.5) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:4.1<4.5, ASYMMETRY:0.8<1.5@spot, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.81 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.5, Quality at 7.4, and Value at 7.1; the weakest are Technical at 1.3, Insider at 3.8, and Momentum at 4.1. The V9 engine flagged 4 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.81 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Quality And Margins Leadership
Trip ifOperating margin falls below 12% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Perfect Earnings Execution
Trip ifEarnings miss consensus estimates by more than 5% in 2 of the next 3 quarterly reports.
- P3Valuation Growth Discount
Trip ifAnalyst consensus earnings estimates decline by more than 15% from current levels over the next 6 months.
- P4Technical Downtrend Headwind
Trip ifStock price drops below $42, exceeding a 16% decline from current levels, confirming accelerating technical deterioration.