Value
8.5/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.7 |
| P/S | 9.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.8 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 6.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.37
- ▸Attractively valued
PLGO · Why this verdict
Why Pelagos Insurance Capital Limit (PLGO) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Pelagos Insurance Capital is cheaply valued at 6.6x forward earnings with a rising price and attractive growth, but the stock trades 15.4% above the analyst target and recent earnings have been erratic.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Pelagos trades at a forward P/E of 6.6x with a PEG of 0.54, which ranks as attractive versus peers. Valuation breakdown | Earnings growth holds so the forward P/E stays below roughly 9x as the price rises over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA very low multiple may signal that the market doubts earnings durability, especially after a large miss in the most recent quarter. | ||
The $25.88 price is 15.4% above the $21.90 analyst target, leaving negative reward-to-risk of -1.74 against 8.8% downside to the stop. Upside pct | Analyst targets are raised toward or above the current price as earnings recover. | →Stable |
| CounterWith the target already exceeded and the price only 2.0% below its 52-week high, little upside remains and a pullback to the target would mean a loss of roughly 15%. | ||
Earnings are inconsistent: 2 beats and 2 misses over the last four quarters, including a $0.34 actual against $0.88 expected in August 2026. Last 4 quarters | EPS returns to meeting or beating estimates in the November 2026 report and subsequent quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterA 61% miss suggests underwriting or catastrophe losses can swing results sharply, and the average surprise of -9.0% shows estimates are unreliable. | ||
Pelagos is rated an industry growth leader with strong earnings growth, and trailing quarterly revenue reached $650M in June 2026 versus $589M a year earlier. Peer-rank breakdown | Quarterly revenue stays above $650M, consistent with the $708M next-quarter estimate. | →Stable |
| CounterRevenue is volatile quarter to quarter and the data feed flags a divergence for December 2025, so the growth trend may be overstated. | ||
Momentum is strong at 7.3/10 with a golden cross, rising on-balance volume and price above the 200-day average. Momentum breakdown | Price holds above its 200-day average with continued volume accumulation. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe negative news modifier shifts the stance toward selling, and a stretched breakout near the 52-week high is prone to reversal. | ||
Pelagos trades at a forward P/E of 6.6x with a PEG of 0.54, which ranks as attractive versus peers.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings growth holds so the forward P/E stays below roughly 9x as the price rises over 12 months.
CounterA very low multiple may signal that the market doubts earnings durability, especially after a large miss in the most recent quarter.
The $25.88 price is 15.4% above the $21.90 analyst target, leaving negative reward-to-risk of -1.74 against 8.8% downside to the stop.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Analyst targets are raised toward or above the current price as earnings recover.
CounterWith the target already exceeded and the price only 2.0% below its 52-week high, little upside remains and a pullback to the target would mean a loss of roughly 15%.
Earnings are inconsistent: 2 beats and 2 misses over the last four quarters, including a $0.34 actual against $0.88 expected in August 2026.
→StableLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- EPS returns to meeting or beating estimates in the November 2026 report and subsequent quarters.
CounterA 61% miss suggests underwriting or catastrophe losses can swing results sharply, and the average surprise of -9.0% shows estimates are unreliable.
Pelagos is rated an industry growth leader with strong earnings growth, and trailing quarterly revenue reached $650M in June 2026 versus $589M a year earlier.
→StablePeer-rank breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue stays above $650M, consistent with the $708M next-quarter estimate.
CounterRevenue is volatile quarter to quarter and the data feed flags a divergence for December 2025, so the growth trend may be overstated.
Momentum is strong at 7.3/10 with a golden cross, rising on-balance volume and price above the 200-day average.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price holds above its 200-day average with continued volume accumulation.
CounterThe negative news modifier shifts the stance toward selling, and a stretched breakout near the 52-week high is prone to reversal.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.9 |
| ROA | 1.6 |
| Gross margin | 1.0 |
| Op margin | 4.3 |
| Net margin | 8.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.3 |
| FCF quality | 7.7 |
| Moat | 6.1 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 16%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
7.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.1 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 8.4 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 3.3 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 4.7 |
Insider
3.7/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 3.2 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.7 |
| quality rank | 5.0 |
| growth rank | 8.3 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.7 |
| support resistance | 2.8 |
| 52w position | 9.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.9 |
| days to cover | 4.9 |
| volatility | 7.5 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 8.7 |
Catalyst
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 7.5 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 13 days
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 2.3% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:5.3>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.9=NEGATIVE
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:5.3<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:13d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.85
Upside
-14.6%
Downside
7.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 67, MACD bullish
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 13d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $2.1B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.3>=4.5. Top dim: Value at 8.5; weakest: Insider at 3.7. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.5, Risk (lower is worse) at 7.8, and Growth at 7.5; the weakest are Insider at 3.7, Catalyst at 4.9, and Sentiment at 4.9. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.85 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Valuation Vs Peers
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 10x as earnings estimates fall.
- P2Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice falls below the $24.72 stop level while the analyst target stays below $22.
- P3Erratic Earnings Record
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Growth Leader With Rising Revenue
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $600M for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Positive Price Momentum
Trip ifPrice closes below the 200-day moving average for 10 consecutive trading days.