Value
7.6/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.5 |
| P/S | 7.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 8.9 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.68
- ▸Attractively valued
PLBC · Why this verdict
Why Plumas Bancorp (PLBC) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
PLBC's bull case highlights a strong growth profile and earnings beat streak (3 of 4 quarters), corroborated by growth notes citing 32% YoY revenue growth. Bull case | Revenue growth should remain elevated near its current double-digit pace over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterAn already-reached analyst target and a failed asymmetry gate suggest the growth narrative may be fully priced in at current levels. | ||
Value notes flag PLBC as attractively valued, trading at a forward P/E of 10.3x with a PEG ratio of 0.68. Valuation breakdown | The value score should hold near its current 7.4 level or the stock should re-rate higher toward fair value over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock is trading just 2.2% from its 52-week high, suggesting much of the valuation opportunity may have already been captured. | ||
The bear case flags that the analyst target has already been reached, with price sitting just 2.2% from its 52-week high. Bear case | Price should stay capped near current levels without materially exceeding the analyst target over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA bullish breakout setup with a golden cross and an imminent earnings catalyst with a 3-of-4 beat streak could carry price meaningfully above the current analyst target. | ||
The engine identifies a catalyst-driven edge: earnings arrive in 11 days backed by a 3-of-4 beat streak, layered on top of a golden-cross breakout with RSI at 65. Edge rationale | PLBC should deliver a positive EPS surprise at the July 15, 2026 report, extending the beat streak while the breakout holds. | →Stable |
| CounterThe engine's own asymmetry gate has failed at -1.0, indicating the risk/reward skew heading into the print is unfavorable despite the bullish setup. | ||
Insiders have been net buyers, purchasing $24,088 (0.006% of market cap) in the past 90 days with zero offsetting sales. Insider | The insider signal should remain bullish over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterAt only 0.006% of market cap, the dollar volume of buying is too small to meaningfully signal insider conviction. | ||
PLBC's bull case highlights a strong growth profile and earnings beat streak (3 of 4 quarters), corroborated by growth notes citing 32% YoY revenue growth.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should remain elevated near its current double-digit pace over the next 12 months.
CounterAn already-reached analyst target and a failed asymmetry gate suggest the growth narrative may be fully priced in at current levels.
Value notes flag PLBC as attractively valued, trading at a forward P/E of 10.3x with a PEG ratio of 0.68.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The value score should hold near its current 7.4 level or the stock should re-rate higher toward fair value over the next 12 months.
CounterThe stock is trading just 2.2% from its 52-week high, suggesting much of the valuation opportunity may have already been captured.
The bear case flags that the analyst target has already been reached, with price sitting just 2.2% from its 52-week high.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Price should stay capped near current levels without materially exceeding the analyst target over the next 12 months.
CounterA bullish breakout setup with a golden cross and an imminent earnings catalyst with a 3-of-4 beat streak could carry price meaningfully above the current analyst target.
The engine identifies a catalyst-driven edge: earnings arrive in 11 days backed by a 3-of-4 beat streak, layered on top of a golden-cross breakout with RSI at 65.
→StableEdge rationale
- Expectation
- PLBC should deliver a positive EPS surprise at the July 15, 2026 report, extending the beat streak while the breakout holds.
CounterThe engine's own asymmetry gate has failed at -1.0, indicating the risk/reward skew heading into the print is unfavorable despite the bullish setup.
Insiders have been net buyers, purchasing $24,088 (0.006% of market cap) in the past 90 days with zero offsetting sales.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- The insider signal should remain bullish over the next 12 months.
CounterAt only 0.006% of market cap, the dollar volume of buying is too small to meaningfully signal insider conviction.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
PLBC combines strong growth, an attractive valuation, and a catalyst-driven breakout setup ahead of earnings, but an already-reached analyst target near the 52-week high leaves limited room to add.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.7 |
| ROA | 1.1 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.9 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Strong margins: 33%
Growth
7.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 5.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 32% YoY
Momentum
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 2.9 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.5 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.1 |
| Price target | 6.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (3.0) — signal dampened
Insider
7.8/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.5 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
- ▸Insider buying (low materiality) — $24,088 (0.006% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
6.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.1 |
| quality rank | 7.3 |
| growth rank | 8.2 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.4 |
| support resistance | 3.4 |
| 52w position | 9.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
8.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.4 |
| days to cover | 9.9 |
| volatility | 3.8 |
| beta | 9.5 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 3 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 8.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 7 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (4)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (4)
- MOMENTUM:3.8<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.9=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d
- FINSVC_REGIONAL_CLIFF:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.94
Upside
-9.3%
Downside
9.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 60 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.4B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.4B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Risk (lower is worse) at 8.2; weakest: Momentum at 3.8. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 8.2, Insider at 7.8, and Value at 7.6; the weakest are Momentum at 3.8, Quality at 5.5, and Technical at 5.6. The V9 engine flagged 4 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.94 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Growth Profile
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% YoY, well below the current 32% pace.
- P2Attractive Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 15x from the current 10.3x, eliminating the valuation cushion.
- P3Analyst Target Reached Limited Upside
Trip ifPrice rises more than 15% above the current $59.13 level, exceeding the prior analyst target.
- P4Bullish Breakout With Earnings Catalyst
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% (a miss) at the July 15, 2026 earnings report, breaking the beat streak.
- P5Notable Insider Buying
Trip ifInsider signal flips bearish with net insider selling that exceeds $100,000 over a 90-day window.