Value
8.0/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.9 |
| P/S | 7.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.31
- ▸Attractively valued
PLBC · Why this verdict
Why Plumas Bancorp (PLBC) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Plumas Bancorp is a profitable regional bank with a perfect 4-of-4 earnings beat streak, 37% margins and attractive valuation, but the price is already above the analyst target and 92% of exposure sits in Northern California and Northern Nevada.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
92% of exposure is in Northern California and Northern Nevada, with real estate-secured loans at 82.0% and commercial real estate at 66.0% of the loan book. Bear case | Regional credit quality holds and commercial real estate losses stay contained over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA regional downturn or commercial real estate stress would hit nearly the whole portfolio at once, with no geographic diversification to cushion losses. | ||
Plumas has beaten EPS estimates in each of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of 9.7% and the latest quarter at $1.61 versus $1.46 expected. Catalyst breakdown | EPS continues to meet or beat estimates over the next 12 months, keeping the beat streak intact. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterEarlier history shows misses (-6.7% in July 2025 and -11.8% in April 2024), so the current streak may be a run of low estimates rather than durable earnings power. | ||
The bank trades at a forward P/E of 10.7x with a PEG of 0.31 while posting strong margins of 37%. Valuation breakdown | Earnings growth sustains the low PEG and valuation multiples stay near 11x forward earnings or lower. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth rank among peers is weak and there is no competitive moat, so the cheap multiple may reflect limited growth rather than mispricing. | ||
The $63.20 price is 5.9% above the $59.50 analyst target, leaving negative reward-to-risk of -1.15 against a 5.1% downside to the stop. Upside pct | Earnings growth lifts analyst targets above the current price over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterWith the target already exceeded and light coverage from 3 analysts, further upside may require multiple expansion that small regional banks rarely get. | ||
Price momentum is strong at 7.6/10 with a golden cross, volume accumulation and the price above the 200-day average. Momentum breakdown | Price holds above its 200-day average and rising on-balance volume persists over the coming quarters. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe price sits near the top of its 52-week range, so a breakout could easily reverse into a pullback if growth disappoints. | ||
92% of exposure is in Northern California and Northern Nevada, with real estate-secured loans at 82.0% and commercial real estate at 66.0% of the loan book.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Regional credit quality holds and commercial real estate losses stay contained over 12 months.
CounterA regional downturn or commercial real estate stress would hit nearly the whole portfolio at once, with no geographic diversification to cushion losses.
Plumas has beaten EPS estimates in each of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of 9.7% and the latest quarter at $1.61 versus $1.46 expected.
↓DeterioratingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- EPS continues to meet or beat estimates over the next 12 months, keeping the beat streak intact.
CounterEarlier history shows misses (-6.7% in July 2025 and -11.8% in April 2024), so the current streak may be a run of low estimates rather than durable earnings power.
The bank trades at a forward P/E of 10.7x with a PEG of 0.31 while posting strong margins of 37%.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings growth sustains the low PEG and valuation multiples stay near 11x forward earnings or lower.
CounterGrowth rank among peers is weak and there is no competitive moat, so the cheap multiple may reflect limited growth rather than mispricing.
The $63.20 price is 5.9% above the $59.50 analyst target, leaving negative reward-to-risk of -1.15 against a 5.1% downside to the stop.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Earnings growth lifts analyst targets above the current price over the next 12 months.
CounterWith the target already exceeded and light coverage from 3 analysts, further upside may require multiple expansion that small regional banks rarely get.
Price momentum is strong at 7.6/10 with a golden cross, volume accumulation and the price above the 200-day average.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price holds above its 200-day average and rising on-balance volume persists over the coming quarters.
CounterThe price sits near the top of its 52-week range, so a breakout could easily reverse into a pullback if growth disappoints.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.5 |
| ROA | 1.2 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.2 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 37%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
7.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.1 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 9.7 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 2.1 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.2 |
| Analyst rating | 6.1 |
| Price target | 6.6 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (3.0) — signal dampened
Insider
6.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 7.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $73,800 (0.017% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.8 |
| quality rank | 8.3 |
| growth rank | 3.2 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.9 |
| support resistance | 2.4 |
| 52w position | 9.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.4 |
| days to cover | 3.7 |
| volatility | 7.2 |
| beta | 9.5 |
| news risk | 5.5 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 3 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 7.3 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:5.4>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:82d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.1=NEGATIVE
- FINSVC_REGIONAL_CLIFF:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:5.4<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.14
Upside
-5.9%
Downside
5.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 63, MACD bullish
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.4B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.4B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.4>=4.5. Top dim: Value at 8.0; weakest: Technical at 4.7. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.0, Growth at 7.0, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.7; the weakest are Technical at 4.7, Momentum at 5.4, and Peer rank at 5.6. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.14 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Consistent Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Attractive Valuation High Margins
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 14x without earnings growth above 10%.
- P3Single Region Concentration Cliff
Trip ifCommercial real estate loan share exceeds 75% of the loan portfolio.
- P4Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice falls below the $60.32 stop level while the analyst target stays below $60.
- P5Positive Technical Momentum
Trip ifPrice closes below the 200-day moving average for 10 consecutive trading days.