Value
3.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 0.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 1.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 62.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.15
PI · Why this verdict
Why Impinj (PI) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Impinj is a semiconductor company with positive free cash flow and a pullback in an uptrend, but it trades above the analyst target at a 59.5x forward P/E with modest growth and mixed earnings surprises.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quarterly revenue reached about $108.4M versus about $97.9M a year earlier, roughly 11% YoY growth, with next-quarter consensus near $107.2M. Revenue quarters | Revenue keeps growing at a high single-digit or better YoY pace over the next four quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterRevenue is lumpy (the prior quarter was only $74.3M) and next-quarter consensus is below the latest quarter, with growth score confidence of only 0.33. | ||
Quality notes describe FCF-positive results with a moderate 15% FCF margin and a 1.1% FCF yield. Quality breakdown | FCF margin stays near or above 15% over the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterA 1.1% FCF yield is very low against the price, and ROE and net margin score 0.0, so free cash flow offers little valuation support. | ||
At $167.07 the stock is above the $159.69 analyst target (upside of -4.4%) with a forward P/E of 59.5x, so valuation already prices in strong execution. Upside pct | Either analysts raise targets as earnings grow or the price consolidates toward the target over 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA PEG of 0.15 suggests expected earnings growth is very high, so the target may lag if growth materializes. | ||
Over the last 4 quarters Impinj posted 2 beats, 1 inline and 1 miss with an average surprise of 4.2%, most recently $0.86 versus $0.80 estimated. Earnings | EPS meets or beats consensus in the report due in 4 days and afterward. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe earlier history shows many strong beats (up to 153%), so recent weaker surprises may reflect rising estimates rather than weakening performance. | ||
The momentum notes describe an uptrend pullback (RSI 38) above the 200-day average with rising OBV, flagged as a buy opportunity despite a 4.9 momentum score. Momentum breakdown | Price holds above the 200-day moving average and above the $155.38 stop level. | →Stable |
| CounterImplied volatility is 94% and short interest is 13%, and the MACD component is 0, so the pullback may extend before it reverses. | ||
Quarterly revenue reached about $108.4M versus about $97.9M a year earlier, roughly 11% YoY growth, with next-quarter consensus near $107.2M.
↑ImprovingRevenue quarters
- Expectation
- Revenue keeps growing at a high single-digit or better YoY pace over the next four quarters.
CounterRevenue is lumpy (the prior quarter was only $74.3M) and next-quarter consensus is below the latest quarter, with growth score confidence of only 0.33.
Quality notes describe FCF-positive results with a moderate 15% FCF margin and a 1.1% FCF yield.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF margin stays near or above 15% over the next four quarters.
CounterA 1.1% FCF yield is very low against the price, and ROE and net margin score 0.0, so free cash flow offers little valuation support.
At $167.07 the stock is above the $159.69 analyst target (upside of -4.4%) with a forward P/E of 59.5x, so valuation already prices in strong execution.
↑ImprovingUpside pct
- Expectation
- Either analysts raise targets as earnings grow or the price consolidates toward the target over 12 months.
CounterA PEG of 0.15 suggests expected earnings growth is very high, so the target may lag if growth materializes.
Over the last 4 quarters Impinj posted 2 beats, 1 inline and 1 miss with an average surprise of 4.2%, most recently $0.86 versus $0.80 estimated.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS meets or beats consensus in the report due in 4 days and afterward.
CounterThe earlier history shows many strong beats (up to 153%), so recent weaker surprises may reflect rising estimates rather than weakening performance.
The momentum notes describe an uptrend pullback (RSI 38) above the 200-day average with rising OBV, flagged as a buy opportunity despite a 4.9 momentum score.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price holds above the 200-day moving average and above the $155.38 stop level.
CounterImplied volatility is 94% and short interest is 13%, and the MACD component is 0, so the pullback may extend before it reverses.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 6.6 |
| Op margin | 3.9 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.7 |
| FCF quality | 6.0 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸FCF-positive but moderate margins (FCF margin 15%, FCF yield 1.0%)
Growth
5.2/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.2 |
Momentum
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 2.5 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.4 |
| Analyst rating | 6.9 |
| Price target | 5.6 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (9.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 6.7 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $2,047,993 (0.038% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
1.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.9 |
| quality rank | 1.2 |
| growth rank | 1.9 |
Technical
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.4 |
| support resistance | 4.9 |
| 52w position | 4.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
2.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.0 |
| days to cover | 4.4 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 2.9 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 3.5 |
| debt equity | 4.7 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.57
- ▸High IV: 105%
- ▸Above max pain $155
Catalyst
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| surprise avg | 4.1 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Extreme risk factors.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:RISK_FLOORPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:4.8>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.70
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.9=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.86
Upside
-9.5%
Downside
11.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 45 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.94>1.3
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's -0.9=NEGATIVE outcome against Sentiment at 6.0 and asymmetric R:R of -0.86.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 6.0, Catalyst at 5.7, and Growth at 5.2; the weakest are Peer rank at 1.6, Risk (lower is worse) at 2.8, and Value at 3.3. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.86 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifAnalyst target rises above $180, more than 7% above the current $167.07 price.
- P2Modest Revenue Growth
Trip ifQuarterly revenue growth falls below 3% YoY from roughly 11% currently.
- P3Positive But Moderate Fcf
Trip ifFCF margin falls below 8% from current 15%.
- P4Mixed Earnings Surprises
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Uptrend Pullback
Trip ifPrice falls below the $155.38 stop level from current $167.07.