Value
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.3 |
| P/S | 9.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.15
- ▸Attractively valued
PGNY · Why this verdict
Why Progyny (PGNY) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Progyny has delivered four consecutive earnings beats averaging 15.5% above estimates with excellent free cash flow conversion of 296%, but the stock has reached analyst targets and the current price offers no meaningful upside cushion.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
A Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9 and free cash flow at 296% of net income indicate strong business quality, with the company ranking best-in-class for margins among its peers. Quality breakdown | Piotroski score remains above 6 and free cash flow conversion stays above 200% of net income over the next 4 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterWithout a recognized competitive moat, quality metrics could erode if the fertility benefits market becomes more competitive or key employer contracts are lost. | ||
Progyny has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 15.5%, driven by strong free cash flow conversion at 296% of net income. Catalyst breakdown | Earnings beat streak extends to 6 consecutive quarters with average surprise remaining above 10%. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe company carries a debt-to-equity ratio of 6.2, and high leverage can amplify earnings volatility if revenue growth disappoints. | ||
The stock is trading above its near-term resistance target with an upside of -1.0% to the resistance level, and the asymmetry ratio has turned negative at -0.28, meaning downside risk of 6.4% exceeds any near-term reward. Warnings | Price pulls back at least 5% to create a more favorable entry point with upside greater than 10% over the next 6 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterStocks that reach analyst targets on earnings momentum can remain elevated longer than expected if the company delivers continued beats. | ||
A debt-to-equity ratio of 6.2 represents an elevated leverage penalty that limits position sizing and increases sensitivity to interest rate changes or revenue shortfalls. Bear case | Debt-to-equity ratio falls below 4.0 within 12 months as the company deploys free cash flow to reduce obligations. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterHigh leverage in healthcare services can be manageable when cash flows are predictable; the 296% FCF conversion suggests debt service is not currently stressed. | ||
A Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9 and free cash flow at 296% of net income indicate strong business quality, with the company ranking best-in-class for margins among its peers.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski score remains above 6 and free cash flow conversion stays above 200% of net income over the next 4 quarters.
CounterWithout a recognized competitive moat, quality metrics could erode if the fertility benefits market becomes more competitive or key employer contracts are lost.
Progyny has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 15.5%, driven by strong free cash flow conversion at 296% of net income.
↑ImprovingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings beat streak extends to 6 consecutive quarters with average surprise remaining above 10%.
CounterThe company carries a debt-to-equity ratio of 6.2, and high leverage can amplify earnings volatility if revenue growth disappoints.
The stock is trading above its near-term resistance target with an upside of -1.0% to the resistance level, and the asymmetry ratio has turned negative at -0.28, meaning downside risk of 6.4% exceeds any near-term reward.
↓DeterioratingWarnings
- Expectation
- Price pulls back at least 5% to create a more favorable entry point with upside greater than 10% over the next 6 months.
CounterStocks that reach analyst targets on earnings momentum can remain elevated longer than expected if the company delivers continued beats.
A debt-to-equity ratio of 6.2 represents an elevated leverage penalty that limits position sizing and increases sensitivity to interest rate changes or revenue shortfalls.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Debt-to-equity ratio falls below 4.0 within 12 months as the company deploys free cash flow to reduce obligations.
CounterHigh leverage in healthcare services can be manageable when cash flows are predictable; the 296% FCF conversion suggests debt service is not currently stressed.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.4 |
| ROA | 6.8 |
| Gross margin | 0.9 |
| Op margin | 4.6 |
| Net margin | 3.0 |
| Current ratio | 7.4 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 6.2 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 250% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
6.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.8 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 7.2 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.3 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.2 |
| Analyst rating | 8.4 |
| Price target | 8.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 23%
Insider
3.7/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 4.5 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $787,697 (0.037% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.1 |
| quality rank | 7.7 |
| growth rank | 2.7 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.2 |
| support resistance | 3.1 |
| 52w position | 6.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.5 |
| days to cover | 6.6 |
| volatility | 4.8 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 6.9 |
| debt equity | 9.8 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 3.00
- ▸High IV: 84%
Catalyst
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 9.5 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 6 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:4.6>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:0.7<1.5@spot
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.6<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
0.67
Upside
+7.4%
Downside
11.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 50, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $2.1B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:4.6>=4.5. Top dim: Sentiment at 7.6; weakest: Insider at 3.7. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.6, Value at 7.2, and Catalyst at 7.1; the weakest are Insider at 3.7, Momentum at 4.6, and Technical at 4.7. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.67 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat Consistency
Trip ifEarnings surprise falls below 5% for 2 consecutive quarters, signaling the beat streak is losing momentum.
- P2Valuation Target Exhaustion
Trip ifStock price rises above $30.00 without a corresponding increase in analyst price targets, pushing asymmetry ratio below -1.0.
- P3Quality Cashflow Strength
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score drops below 5 or free cash flow conversion falls below 100% of net income for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Leverage Risk Constraint
Trip ifDebt-to-equity ratio exceeds 8.0 or interest coverage falls below 3 times earnings, indicating leverage stress.