Value
8.2/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.2 |
| P/S | 8.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.11
- ▸Attractively valued
PGC · Why this verdict
Why Peapack-Gladstone Financial Cor (PGC) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Peapack-Gladstone is a cheaply valued, fast-growing regional bank with strong margins and a bullish breakout, but upside to the analyst target is only 4.8%, earnings surprises are mixed and commercial real estate lending is concentrated.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The loan portfolio is concentrated in commercial real estate lending, flagged as 1 high-severity concentration risk. Bear case | Commercial real estate remains a major share of loans and credit costs track the property market over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterCommercial real estate is standard for community banks, and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 suggests the balance sheet is healthy. | ||
Quarterly revenue reached about $86.1M versus about $69.7M a year earlier, roughly 23% YoY growth, with next-quarter consensus near $90.1M. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth stays above 10% YoY across the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterRevenue figures in the filing data diverged from a second source by up to 19% in the December 2025 quarter, and the quarterly path is lumpy ($94.0M in December versus $82.5M in March). | ||
Valuation is flagged as attractive with a forward P/E of 9.5x and a PEG of 0.10, but the $47.60 analyst target is only 4.8% above the $45.43 price. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E stays below 12x as earnings grow, supporting the current price. | →Stable |
| CounterThin upside of 4.8% against 6.8% downside to the stop gives a reward-to-risk of 0.7, so a cheap multiple alone offers little margin of safety. | ||
Over the last 4 quarters Peapack-Gladstone posted 2 beats and 2 misses with an average surprise of 4.35%, including a $0.85 result versus a $0.88 estimate in July. Earnings | EPS meets or beats consensus in the report due in 3 days and in the following quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe extended history shows eight misses in the last twelve quarters, so a persistent tendency to fall short of estimates is a real risk. | ||
The setup shows a golden cross, price above all moving averages, RSI of 59 and bullish MACD, with rising OBV and a momentum score of 7.7. Chart pattern detection | Price holds above the 200-day moving average and above the $42.61 stop level. | →Stable |
| CounterBollinger and support/resistance scores are near zero (0.0 and 0.5), so the stock is stretched against its technical range ahead of earnings in 3 days. | ||
The loan portfolio is concentrated in commercial real estate lending, flagged as 1 high-severity concentration risk.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Commercial real estate remains a major share of loans and credit costs track the property market over the next 12 months.
CounterCommercial real estate is standard for community banks, and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 suggests the balance sheet is healthy.
Quarterly revenue reached about $86.1M versus about $69.7M a year earlier, roughly 23% YoY growth, with next-quarter consensus near $90.1M.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth stays above 10% YoY across the next four quarters.
CounterRevenue figures in the filing data diverged from a second source by up to 19% in the December 2025 quarter, and the quarterly path is lumpy ($94.0M in December versus $82.5M in March).
Valuation is flagged as attractive with a forward P/E of 9.5x and a PEG of 0.10, but the $47.60 analyst target is only 4.8% above the $45.43 price.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E stays below 12x as earnings grow, supporting the current price.
CounterThin upside of 4.8% against 6.8% downside to the stop gives a reward-to-risk of 0.7, so a cheap multiple alone offers little margin of safety.
Over the last 4 quarters Peapack-Gladstone posted 2 beats and 2 misses with an average surprise of 4.35%, including a $0.85 result versus a $0.88 estimate in July.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS meets or beats consensus in the report due in 3 days and in the following quarters.
CounterThe extended history shows eight misses in the last twelve quarters, so a persistent tendency to fall short of estimates is a real risk.
The setup shows a golden cross, price above all moving averages, RSI of 59 and bullish MACD, with rising OBV and a momentum score of 7.7.
→StableChart pattern detection
- Expectation
- Price holds above the 200-day moving average and above the $42.61 stop level.
CounterBollinger and support/resistance scores are near zero (0.0 and 0.5), so the stock is stretched against its technical range ahead of earnings in 3 days.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.6 |
| ROA | 0.5 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 9.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 18%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
9.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 8.3 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 23% YoY
Momentum
8.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.4 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 7.5 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 72)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 4.9 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.8 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 21%
Insider
5.2/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.5 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $159,934 (0.020% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.3 |
| quality rank | 1.0 |
| growth rank | 7.5 |
Technical
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.1 |
| support resistance | 1.3 |
| 52w position | 8.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.2 |
| days to cover | 0.1 |
| volatility | 7.1 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 4.5 |
| beta | 8.7 |
| news risk | 4.0 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.6 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:8.2>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:98d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.4<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.37
Upside
+3.1%
Downside
8.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.8B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.8B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:8.2>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 9.2; weakest: Technical at 3.4. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.2, Value at 8.2, and Momentum at 8.2; the weakest are Technical at 3.4, Peer rank at 4.7, and Insider at 5.2. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.37 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Revenue Growth
Trip ifQuarterly revenue growth falls below 10% YoY from roughly 23% currently.
- P2Cheap Forward Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E exceeds 14x from current 9.5x.
- P3Mixed Earnings Record
Trip ifEPS surprise exceeds 0% for 3 consecutive quarters.
- P4Commercial Real Estate Concentration
Trip ifCommercial real estate falls below 40% of the loan portfolio.
- P5Golden Cross Breakout
Trip ifPrice falls below the $42.61 stop level from current $45.43.