Value
7.6/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.7 |
| P/S | 8.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.11
- ▸Attractively valued
PGC · Why this verdict
Why Peapack-Gladstone Financial Cor (PGC) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
PGC's bull case highlights a strong growth profile, corroborated by growth notes citing 26% YoY earnings growth. Bull case | Revenue and earnings growth should remain elevated near double-digit rates over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterTwo consecutive earnings misses and a failed asymmetry gate suggest the growth narrative may already be priced in or at risk of decelerating. | ||
Value notes flag PGC as attractively valued, trading at a forward P/E of 9.7x with a PEG ratio of 0.11. Valuation breakdown | The value score should hold near its current 7.6 level or the stock should re-rate higher toward fair value over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe analyst target has already been reached per the bear case, suggesting the market may already be pricing in the growth that makes the valuation look cheap. | ||
The bear case flags that the analyst target has already been reached, with price sitting just 3.6% from its 52-week high. Bear case | Price should stay capped near current levels without materially exceeding the analyst target over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA bullish breakout setup with a golden cross and strong growth profile could carry price meaningfully above the current analyst target if the market re-rates on future guidance. | ||
PGC has missed earnings estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of -3.1%, and next reports in 23 days. Earnings | The earnings surprise trend should turn solidly positive, with a clean beat in the reporting cycle on 2026-07-27. | →Stable |
| CounterThe two most recent quarters were both beats (+15.2% and +12.0% surprises), suggesting the miss pattern may already be reversing. | ||
Insiders have been net sellers, offloading $202,319 (0.024% of market cap) across 3 transactions with zero offsetting purchases in the past 90 days. Insider | Insider selling should moderate, with the net insider signal trending back toward neutral over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterAt only 0.024% of market cap, this level of selling is immaterial and consistent with routine diversification rather than a signal of deteriorating conviction. | ||
PGC's bull case highlights a strong growth profile, corroborated by growth notes citing 26% YoY earnings growth.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- Revenue and earnings growth should remain elevated near double-digit rates over the next 12 months.
CounterTwo consecutive earnings misses and a failed asymmetry gate suggest the growth narrative may already be priced in or at risk of decelerating.
Value notes flag PGC as attractively valued, trading at a forward P/E of 9.7x with a PEG ratio of 0.11.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The value score should hold near its current 7.6 level or the stock should re-rate higher toward fair value over the next 12 months.
CounterThe analyst target has already been reached per the bear case, suggesting the market may already be pricing in the growth that makes the valuation look cheap.
The bear case flags that the analyst target has already been reached, with price sitting just 3.6% from its 52-week high.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Price should stay capped near current levels without materially exceeding the analyst target over the next 12 months.
CounterA bullish breakout setup with a golden cross and strong growth profile could carry price meaningfully above the current analyst target if the market re-rates on future guidance.
PGC has missed earnings estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of -3.1%, and next reports in 23 days.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The earnings surprise trend should turn solidly positive, with a clean beat in the reporting cycle on 2026-07-27.
CounterThe two most recent quarters were both beats (+15.2% and +12.0% surprises), suggesting the miss pattern may already be reversing.
Insiders have been net sellers, offloading $202,319 (0.024% of market cap) across 3 transactions with zero offsetting purchases in the past 90 days.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider selling should moderate, with the net insider signal trending back toward neutral over the next 12 months.
CounterAt only 0.024% of market cap, this level of selling is immaterial and consistent with routine diversification rather than a signal of deteriorating conviction.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
PGC pairs a strong growth profile and attractive valuation with a bullish breakout setup, but an already-reached analyst target, two recent earnings misses, and modest insider selling argue for holding rather than adding.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.2 |
| ROA | 0.4 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 8.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 16%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
9.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 8.9 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 26% YoY
Momentum
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.6 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 10.0 |
| vol acceleration | 1.4 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
- ▸Volume surge (3.6x avg) on selloff
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.1 |
| Price target | 6.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 9.4 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $202,319 (0.024% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.8 |
| quality rank | 1.0 |
| growth rank | 7.5 |
Technical
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.2 |
| support resistance | 7.2 |
| 52w position | 8.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.2 |
| days to cover | 5.2 |
| volatility | 3.9 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 8.7 |
- ▸High IV: 105%
- ▸Above max pain $30
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 1.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position. | News modifier -1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULT|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:20d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.1<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.6=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.57
Upside
-3.9%
Downside
6.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.8B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.8B<$5B
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Growth at 9.4; weakest: Catalyst at 4.0. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.4, Value at 7.6, and Technical at 7.6; the weakest are Catalyst at 4.0, Momentum at 4.1, and Peer rank at 4.6. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.57 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Growth Profile
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 3% YoY, well below the current 26% pace.
- P2Attractive Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 15x from the current 9.7x, eliminating the valuation cushion.
- P3Analyst Target Reached Limited Upside
Trip ifPrice rises more than 15% above the current $47.38 level, exceeding the prior 52-week high and analyst target.
- P4Consecutive Earnings Misses
Trip ifEPS surprise exceeds 5% at the July 27, 2026 earnings report, confirming a clean beat.
- P5Modest Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider signal flips bullish with net insider buying that exceeds $250,000 over a 90-day window.