Ranpak shows strong technical support levels but a quality score below the engine's floor, a failed momentum gate, and a persistent earnings miss streak that together suggest the stock's prior price target already captured its near-term positives.
Thesis pillars
- Quality Floor Breach No Moat→Stable
- Earnings Miss Streak↑Improving
- Momentum Gate Failure Falling Obv→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Ranpak Holdings Corp (PACK) Stock Analysis
Oversold Bounce setup · Inst Constrain edge
Consumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containers
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $5.17: Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 25.00; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.
Ranpak Holdings is a global provider of paper-based protective packaging (Void-Fill, Cushioning, and Wrapping systems under the FillPak, PadPak, WrapPak, and Geami brands) and end-of-line automation and machine vision solutions for e-commerce and industrial supply chains. The... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $5.17: Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 25.00; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 27, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-30Recent Developments — Ranpak Holdings Corp
Latest news
- NEWS Ranpak Hldgs Q2 EPS $(0.09) Misses $(0.07) Estimate, Sales $105.200M Beat $100.943M Estimate — benzinga Jul 30, 2026 neutral
Generated 2026-07-30T22:48:36Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMSupplierSmurfit WestRock Company27%10-K Item 1A: 'we purchased approximately 60% and 27% of our raw paper requirements in North America and globally, respectively, from a single supplier, Smurfit WestRock Company'
- MEDIUMSupplierChina-based component suppliers for Automation systems10-K Item 1A: 'our suppliers, including those in China that supply a majority of the components and systems provided to our end-users, will experience operational delays'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
4 floor-breakers
Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static
Volatile — 8.1% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $5.17: Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 25.00; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 27, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Prior stop was $4.81. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $6.02 (+16.5% upside). Prior stop was $4.81. Stop-loss: $4.81.
Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0).
Ranpak Holdings Corp trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -97.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
9 analysts cover PACK with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $7.
What does Ranpak Holdings Corp do?Ranpak Holdings is a global provider of paper-based protective packaging (Void-Fill, Cushioning, and Wrapping systems...
Ranpak Holdings is a global provider of paper-based protective packaging (Void-Fill, Cushioning, and Wrapping systems under the FillPak, PadPak, WrapPak, and Geami brands) and end-of-line automation and machine vision solutions for e-commerce and industrial supply chains. The company generated $395.0 million in net revenue in 2025, roughly 47% from North America, 45% from Europe, and 8% from Asia, operating a razor/razor-blade model where proprietary systems are placed with distributors and end-users who then buy exclusive paper consumables. Approximately 60% of Ranpak's North American raw pap