Value
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 1.0 |
| P/S | 6.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.15
- ▸Attractively valued
OWL · Why this verdict
Why Blue Owl Capital (OWL) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score4.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Blue Owl Capital carries a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9 and 425% free-cash-flow conversion relative to net income, but a confirmed death-cross technical pattern, 24% short interest, and an elevated put-to-call ratio of 4.70 signal significant near-term downside risk from professional bearish positioning.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Blue Owl generates 1000% free cash flow relative to net income alongside a Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9, the highest possible score, indicating exceptional financial health and cash generation well above reported earnings. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion remains above 200% relative to net income for at least 3 of the next 4 reporting periods. | →Stable |
| CounterIn asset management, high free-cash-flow conversion relative to net income often reflects the absence of capital expenditure requirements rather than operating superiority, which is structural and may not persist if the business model shifts. | ||
Eighty-five percent of assets under management are in permanent capital vehicles, which cannot be redeemed by investors on short notice, providing highly predictable and stable fee income over the long term. Bear case | Permanent capital as a percentage of total assets under management remains above 75% and management fee revenue grows by at least 10% over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterPermanent capital vehicle performance issues or regulatory changes to alternative investment fund structures could impair future fundraising, limiting the ability to replenish the capital base as existing vehicles mature. | ||
The stock is in a confirmed death-cross pattern with the 200-day moving average sloping down 9.0% over 30 days and falling on-balance volume, the steepest moving average decline and the clearest distribution signal in the dataset. Momentum breakdown | Price rises above the 200-day moving average and the moving average slope turns positive within 9 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterDeath-cross signals in high-quality asset managers with strong fee income can produce false negatives; the underlying business fundamentals may recover faster than the technical pattern suggests. | ||
Short interest is 24% of float and the put-to-call ratio is 4.70, both extremely elevated, indicating a large cohort of professional investors have positioned for further price declines in Blue Owl Capital. Risk breakdown | Short interest falls below 15% of float within 6 months as the bear thesis fails to materialize and short sellers are forced to cover. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterHigh short interest combined with a death cross and 24% short float represents the highest-conviction bearish combination in this dataset and often precedes further price declines before any squeeze materializes. | ||
Blue Owl generates 1000% free cash flow relative to net income alongside a Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9, the highest possible score, indicating exceptional financial health and cash generation well above reported earnings.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion remains above 200% relative to net income for at least 3 of the next 4 reporting periods.
CounterIn asset management, high free-cash-flow conversion relative to net income often reflects the absence of capital expenditure requirements rather than operating superiority, which is structural and may not persist if the business model shifts.
Eighty-five percent of assets under management are in permanent capital vehicles, which cannot be redeemed by investors on short notice, providing highly predictable and stable fee income over the long term.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Permanent capital as a percentage of total assets under management remains above 75% and management fee revenue grows by at least 10% over the next 12 months.
CounterPermanent capital vehicle performance issues or regulatory changes to alternative investment fund structures could impair future fundraising, limiting the ability to replenish the capital base as existing vehicles mature.
The stock is in a confirmed death-cross pattern with the 200-day moving average sloping down 9.0% over 30 days and falling on-balance volume, the steepest moving average decline and the clearest distribution signal in the dataset.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price rises above the 200-day moving average and the moving average slope turns positive within 9 months.
CounterDeath-cross signals in high-quality asset managers with strong fee income can produce false negatives; the underlying business fundamentals may recover faster than the technical pattern suggests.
Short interest is 24% of float and the put-to-call ratio is 4.70, both extremely elevated, indicating a large cohort of professional investors have positioned for further price declines in Blue Owl Capital.
↓DeterioratingRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Short interest falls below 15% of float within 6 months as the bear thesis fails to materialize and short sellers are forced to cover.
CounterHigh short interest combined with a death cross and 24% short float represents the highest-conviction bearish combination in this dataset and often precedes further price declines before any squeeze materializes.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.9 |
| ROA | 3.0 |
| Gross margin | 7.7 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 1.4 |
| Current ratio | 6.9 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 6.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 1000% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
2.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.3 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
Momentum
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 8.3 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 5.8 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -7.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.4 |
| Price target | 8.5 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.40 (n=2)
- ▸Analyst upside: 28%
Insider
3.1/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 1.4 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $10 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions reducing
Peer rank
3.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.5 |
| quality rank | 2.0 |
| growth rank | 6.0 |
Technical
0.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.3 |
| support resistance | 0.7 |
| 52w position | 1.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 1.0 |
| days to cover | 4.8 |
| volatility | 2.7 |
| put call | 2.6 |
| implied vol | 1.2 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 5.7 |
| debt equity | 6.4 |
- ▸High short interest: 18%
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.61
- ▸High IV: 73%
- ▸Above max pain $4
Catalyst
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.2 |
| dividend safety | 5.8 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Earnings today
- ▸Dividend: 9.7%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCK|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:4.7>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.5>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.7<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
1.46
Upside
+15.6%
Downside
10.7%
Sizing output
STARTER
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -42% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings. The 10-dimension scores remain Sentiment at 7.6 (strongest), but EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.6, Value at 7.1, and Quality at 6.3; the weakest are Technical at 0.9, Growth at 2.1, and Insider at 3.1. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.46 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Exceptional Cash Conversion Quality
Trip ifFree cash flow conversion falls below 100% of net income for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Permanent Capital Concentration
Trip ifManagement fee revenue declines by more than 15% year-over-year in any reporting period.
- P3Death Cross Confirmed Downtrend
Trip ifPrice drops below $8.00 and the 200-day moving average slope remains below negative 5% for 8 or more consecutive weeks.
- P4High Short Interest Bearish Positioning
Trip ifShort interest rises above 30% of float or put-to-call ratio rises above 6.0.