Value
6.7/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.4 |
| P/S | 8.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.6 |
| PEG | 4.7 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 16.3x
- ▸PEG: 1.82
OTTR · Why this verdict
Why Otter Tail (OTTR) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.2 |
| ROA | 3.7 |
| Gross margin | 4.6 |
| Op margin | 9.9 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 7.1 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong margins: 21%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -26% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
3.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.2 |
| EPS growth | 3.4 |
Momentum
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 1.6 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 0.9 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.6 |
| erm sentiment | 0.0 |
- ▸Estimates falling as sentiment proxy (-37.3%)
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.6 |
| quality rank | 6.7 |
| growth rank | 5.6 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.8 |
| support resistance | 4.6 |
| 52w position | 8.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.2 |
| days to cover | 0.0 |
| volatility | 7.5 |
| put call | 6.7 |
| implied vol | 4.7 |
| max pain risk | 5.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 7.2 |
- ▸Short squeeze setup: 19% short, quality 7.5
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 1.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.6 |
| dividend safety | 6.5 |
- ▸Estimates down -37.3% (30d)
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Dividend: 254.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:56d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.4<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-2.3=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-2.27
Upside
-11.3%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRANGE_BOUND — RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $3.6B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.4 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 6.7) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:4.4<4.5, ASYMMETRY:-2.3=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -2.27 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 6.7, Technical at 6.4, and Quality at 6.3; the weakest are Growth at 3.3, Sentiment at 3.8, and Catalyst at 4.3. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -2.27 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.