Value
8.0/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.2 |
| P/S | 9.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 10.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 5.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.23
- ▸Attractively valued
OPRT · Why this verdict
Why Oportun Financial (OPRT) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Oportun beat EPS estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 27.3%, including $0.42 against $0.33 in the latest quarter. Earnings track record | The company beats consensus EPS again at the report due in 16 days and the streak extends. | ↑Improving |
| CounterEstimate bars were low in some quarters (for example $0.17 in May 2026), and a 5th beat is priced in; a miss against a 4/4 streak would hit sentiment hard. | ||
Forward P/E is 4.7x with a PEG of 0.22, giving a value score of 8.3. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E stays below 8x while earnings grow over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA very low forward P/E for a credit-services lender reflects credit-loss risk that the multiple already discounts, so cheapness may be justified. | ||
The analyst target of $9.78 sits only 7.7% above the $9.08 price, which is within 2.9% of the 52-week high, against 12.0% downside to the $8.44 stop, an asymmetry of 0.64. Upside pct | Analyst targets are raised or price pulls back so asymmetry returns above 1.5. | →Stable |
| CounterLight analyst coverage (4 analysts) means targets are likely to lag price, so upward revisions after the beat streak would reopen the upside. | ||
Momentum is 5.1, passing the 4.5 gate but below the 5.5 soft threshold, with a golden cross, price above all moving averages and RSI at 68, though on-balance volume is falling. Momentum breakdown | Momentum rises above 5.5 and on-balance volume turns upward over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterFalling on-balance volume during a breakout signals distribution, and RSI at 68 is near overbought, so the breakout may fail. | ||
Quality is 4.7 (barely above the 4.0 floor), with ROE at 1.7, ROA at 0.4 and net margin at 1.3, though the Piotroski F-Score is a strong 8/9. Quality breakdown | Return on equity and net margin components improve and quality rises above 5.5. | →Stable |
| CounterA Piotroski score of 8/9 shows improving fundamentals even if absolute profitability is low, so quality may be recovering. | ||
Oportun beat EPS estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 27.3%, including $0.42 against $0.33 in the latest quarter.
↑ImprovingEarnings track record
- Expectation
- The company beats consensus EPS again at the report due in 16 days and the streak extends.
CounterEstimate bars were low in some quarters (for example $0.17 in May 2026), and a 5th beat is priced in; a miss against a 4/4 streak would hit sentiment hard.
Forward P/E is 4.7x with a PEG of 0.22, giving a value score of 8.3.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E stays below 8x while earnings grow over the next 12 months.
CounterA very low forward P/E for a credit-services lender reflects credit-loss risk that the multiple already discounts, so cheapness may be justified.
The analyst target of $9.78 sits only 7.7% above the $9.08 price, which is within 2.9% of the 52-week high, against 12.0% downside to the $8.44 stop, an asymmetry of 0.64.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Analyst targets are raised or price pulls back so asymmetry returns above 1.5.
CounterLight analyst coverage (4 analysts) means targets are likely to lag price, so upward revisions after the beat streak would reopen the upside.
Momentum is 5.1, passing the 4.5 gate but below the 5.5 soft threshold, with a golden cross, price above all moving averages and RSI at 68, though on-balance volume is falling.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum rises above 5.5 and on-balance volume turns upward over the next 12 months.
CounterFalling on-balance volume during a breakout signals distribution, and RSI at 68 is near overbought, so the breakout may fail.
Quality is 4.7 (barely above the 4.0 floor), with ROE at 1.7, ROA at 0.4 and net margin at 1.3, though the Piotroski F-Score is a strong 8/9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Return on equity and net margin components improve and quality rises above 5.5.
CounterA Piotroski score of 8/9 shows improving fundamentals even if absolute profitability is low, so quality may be recovering.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.7 |
| ROA | 0.4 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 4.6 |
| Net margin | 1.3 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
5.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.8 |
| EPS growth | 6.3 |
Momentum
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 7.2 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 3.2 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.3 |
| Price target | 7.4 |
| erm sentiment | 4.1 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
Insider
6.6/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 7.7 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $55,240 (0.012% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
2.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.4 |
| quality rank | 1.2 |
| growth rank | 4.1 |
Technical
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.5 |
| support resistance | 0.1 |
| 52w position | 9.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.9 |
| days to cover | 8.8 |
| volatility | 3.0 |
| put call | 2.1 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.0 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.69
- ▸High IV: 100%
- ▸Above max pain $5
- ▸Concentration risks: 3 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 5 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:6.9>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward/risk data unavailable
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.1%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 69, MACD bullish
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.4B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.4B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.7 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 8.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.00 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.0, Catalyst at 7.1, and Momentum at 6.9; the weakest are Peer rank at 2.9, Technical at 3.5, and Risk (lower is worse) at 3.9. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Attractive Valuation Forward Pe
Trip ifForward P/E exceeds 10x as forward earnings estimates are cut.
- P3Thin Upside Near 52 Week High
Trip ifPrice falls below the $8.44 stop level, more than 7% under $9.08.
- P4Golden Cross Breakout Setup
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 4.5.
- P5Below Average Quality Lender
Trip ifQuality score falls below 4.0 from the current 4.7.