Value
9.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 8.9 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Attractively valued
OPK · Why this verdict
Why Opko Health (OPK) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Opko Health offers large analyst-implied upside, a strong earnings beat record and a technical breakout, but weak quality, high leverage and counterparty concentration on Pfizer keep it a speculative holding.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quality scores 2.2, below the 4.0 floor, with no competitive moat, zero margin scores and high leverage (D/E 3.1). Warnings | Quality stays below 4.0 and leverage stays elevated unless profitability improves. | ↑Improving |
| CounterCurrent ratio scores 9.7, so near-term liquidity is not a concern, and the loss per share is shrinking. | ||
The $3.61 analyst target sits 121.5% above the $1.63 price, with reward-to-risk of 8.1 against 15% downside to the stop. Upside pct | Price rises toward the analyst target as earnings improve over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst coverage is light and the signal is dampened, and a sub-$2 stock with weak quality may never close the gap to a stale target. | ||
Opko has beaten EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 71.4%, and the loss narrowed to $0.03 from $0.11 expected last quarter. Earnings | Quarterly EPS keeps meeting or beating estimates as losses narrow toward breakeven. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterSurprise percentages on near-zero EPS are inflated, and the April quarter came in at the estimated loss of $0.07 with no real improvement. | ||
The setup shows a golden cross, price above all moving averages, RSI of 53 and bullish MACD, with rising OBV signaling accumulation. Chart pattern detection | Price holds above the 200-day moving average and above the $1.52 stop through the next two quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterVolume component scores 0.0 and Bollinger and support scores are low, so the breakout lacks participation and could fail quickly. | ||
Concentration risks include counterparty dependence on Pfizer and geographic concentration in New York and New Jersey, flagged as 2 high-severity risks. Bear case | Revenue remains tied to a few counterparties and one region over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterRevenue rebounded to $163.6M from $124.2M the prior quarter, which suggests the Pfizer relationship may be a source of strength. | ||
Quality scores 2.2, below the 4.0 floor, with no competitive moat, zero margin scores and high leverage (D/E 3.1).
↑ImprovingWarnings
- Expectation
- Quality stays below 4.0 and leverage stays elevated unless profitability improves.
CounterCurrent ratio scores 9.7, so near-term liquidity is not a concern, and the loss per share is shrinking.
The $3.61 analyst target sits 121.5% above the $1.63 price, with reward-to-risk of 8.1 against 15% downside to the stop.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Price rises toward the analyst target as earnings improve over 12 months.
CounterAnalyst coverage is light and the signal is dampened, and a sub-$2 stock with weak quality may never close the gap to a stale target.
Opko has beaten EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 71.4%, and the loss narrowed to $0.03 from $0.11 expected last quarter.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- Quarterly EPS keeps meeting or beating estimates as losses narrow toward breakeven.
CounterSurprise percentages on near-zero EPS are inflated, and the April quarter came in at the estimated loss of $0.07 with no real improvement.
The setup shows a golden cross, price above all moving averages, RSI of 53 and bullish MACD, with rising OBV signaling accumulation.
→StableChart pattern detection
- Expectation
- Price holds above the 200-day moving average and above the $1.52 stop through the next two quarters.
CounterVolume component scores 0.0 and Bollinger and support scores are low, so the breakout lacks participation and could fail quickly.
Concentration risks include counterparty dependence on Pfizer and geographic concentration in New York and New Jersey, flagged as 2 high-severity risks.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Revenue remains tied to a few counterparties and one region over the next 12 months.
CounterRevenue rebounded to $163.6M from $124.2M the prior quarter, which suggests the Pfizer relationship may be a source of strength.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.7 |
| Moat | 3.9 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
3.6/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.6 |
Momentum
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 6.8 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.5 |
| Analyst rating | 6.5 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (5.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 156%
Insider
5.3/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.6 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.4 |
| quality rank | 2.4 |
| growth rank | 1.6 |
Technical
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.9 |
| support resistance | 3.2 |
| 52w position | 8.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.9 |
| days to cover | 2.5 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 5.0 |
| debt equity | 8.7 |
- ▸High IV: 133%
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 7.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Earnings in 6 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (5)
- ASYMMETRY:8.2>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.4<4.5
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
8.19
Upside
+122.9%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 68, MACD bullish
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.2B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.50>1.3, MCap $1.2B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 4.4<4.5 outcome against Value at 9.0 and asymmetric R:R of 8.19.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.0, Sentiment at 7.5, and Catalyst at 7.4; the weakest are Quality at 2.2, Growth at 3.6, and Momentum at 4.4. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 8.19 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Large Analyst Upside
Trip ifAnalyst target falls below $2.00, less than 23% above the current $1.63 price.
- P2Consistent Earnings Beats
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Breakout Technical Setup
Trip ifPrice falls below the $1.52 stop level from current $1.63.
- P4Weak Quality High Leverage
Trip ifDebt-to-equity falls below 2.0 from current 3.1 while quality score exceeds 4.0.
- P5Pfizer And Regional Concentration
Trip ifPfizer accounts for less than 10% of revenue.