Value
9.2/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 10.0 |
| P/S | 7.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 10.0 |
| PEG | 9.6 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 4.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.56
- ▸Attractively valued
OPFI · Why this verdict
Why OppFi (OPFI) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
OppFi is a high-quality business with an excellent 62% ROE, 19% margins, and a strong Piotroski F-Score of 7/9. Quality breakdown | ROE stays above 45% and margins hold above 15%. | →Stable |
| CounterExtremely high ROE at a consumer credit lender can be a function of high leverage rather than superior unit economics, which raises risk in a credit downturn. | ||
The stock trades cheaply, with a forward P/E of just 4.5x and a PEG ratio of 0.56, both flagged as attractively valued. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E stays below 8x while ROE and margins hold. | →Stable |
| CounterA single-digit forward P/E in subprime consumer lending often reflects the market pricing in credit-cycle risk rather than a genuine value opportunity. | ||
Revenue is declining 2% year-over-year, consistent with the bear case flag of weak growth. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth turns positive, exceeding 3% YoY, within the next two quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterA modest revenue decline could reflect deliberate credit tightening ahead of a downturn, which would be a prudent business decision rather than a genuine growth problem. | ||
The stock is overbought with RSI at 76, and late-cycle distribution risk is flagged as the 200-day MA slope has gone flat-to-negative even while price stays above it. Momentum breakdown | RSI cools into the 40-70 range without the price breaking below the 200-day moving average. | →Stable |
| CounterStrong momentum names can stay overbought for extended periods, especially with a perfect 4-for-4 earnings beat streak supporting the move. | ||
The engine's own buy-now gate is blocked because the risk/reward ratio of 1.3x at the current price falls short of the 1.5x minimum required. Engine gate (failed) | The risk/reward ratio rises above 1.5x as either the entry price improves or the target is raised. | →Stable |
| CounterA risk/reward ratio this close to the threshold could clear the bar with only a small pullback, meaning the blocked signal may resolve quickly in the bulls' favor. | ||
OppFi is a high-quality business with an excellent 62% ROE, 19% margins, and a strong Piotroski F-Score of 7/9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- ROE stays above 45% and margins hold above 15%.
CounterExtremely high ROE at a consumer credit lender can be a function of high leverage rather than superior unit economics, which raises risk in a credit downturn.
The stock trades cheaply, with a forward P/E of just 4.5x and a PEG ratio of 0.56, both flagged as attractively valued.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E stays below 8x while ROE and margins hold.
CounterA single-digit forward P/E in subprime consumer lending often reflects the market pricing in credit-cycle risk rather than a genuine value opportunity.
Revenue is declining 2% year-over-year, consistent with the bear case flag of weak growth.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth turns positive, exceeding 3% YoY, within the next two quarters.
CounterA modest revenue decline could reflect deliberate credit tightening ahead of a downturn, which would be a prudent business decision rather than a genuine growth problem.
The stock is overbought with RSI at 76, and late-cycle distribution risk is flagged as the 200-day MA slope has gone flat-to-negative even while price stays above it.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI cools into the 40-70 range without the price breaking below the 200-day moving average.
CounterStrong momentum names can stay overbought for extended periods, especially with a perfect 4-for-4 earnings beat streak supporting the move.
The engine's own buy-now gate is blocked because the risk/reward ratio of 1.3x at the current price falls short of the 1.5x minimum required.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- The risk/reward ratio rises above 1.5x as either the entry price improves or the target is raised.
CounterA risk/reward ratio this close to the threshold could clear the bar with only a small pullback, meaning the blocked signal may resolve quickly in the bulls' favor.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
OppFi is a high-ROE, cheaply-valued lender with a perfect earnings beat streak, but declining revenue, overbought momentum, and a risk/reward ratio that falls just short of the engine's buy-now threshold temper the setup.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 9.7 |
| Current ratio | 6.8 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 62%
- ▸Strong margins: 19%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
- ▸High-quality business
Growth
2.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.0 |
| EPS growth | 3.6 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -2%
Momentum
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 7.6 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 4.1 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.7%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.1 |
| Price target | 9.6 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (3.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 54%
Insider
5.5/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $541,991 (0.038% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.3 |
| quality rank | 7.3 |
| growth rank | 1.4 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.6 |
| support resistance | 4.8 |
| 52w position | 2.1 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.7 |
| days to cover | 7.4 |
| volatility | 0.8 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 4.1 |
| debt equity | 5.8 |
- ▸High IV: 122%
- ▸Above max pain $2
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
V9 Gate blocked: 50MA < 200MA with weak momentum (4.6) - hard block. Wait for improvement.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_A_VALUE_MOS33->V9:DEATH_CROSS|ENTRY_STICKY:PRIOR_STILL_VIABLEPassed (9)
- MOMENTUM:4.6>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:2.4>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:28d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- SECTOR_CONCENTRATION_CAP:sector=Financial Services:3/10
Failed (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.6<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
2.40
Upside
+30.9%
Downside
12.9%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 55
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 28d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.77>1.3, MCap $1.4B<$5B
Investment implication
The STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict reflects the DEATH_CROSS gate's HARD_BLOCK outcome against Value at 9.2 and asymmetric R:R of 2.40.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.2, Quality at 8.8, and Catalyst at 7.5; the weakest are Growth at 2.8, Technical at 4.4, and Momentum at 4.6. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.40 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Roe Quality Business
Trip ifReturn on equity falls below 40% from the current 62%.
- P2Cheap Forward Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E exceeds 10x from the current 4.5x.
- P3Weak Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below -8% YoY from the current -2% pace.
- P4Overbought Late Cycle Risk
Trip ifRSI stays above 75 for more than 4 consecutive weeks while the price breaks below the 200-day moving average.
- P5Risk Reward Gate Blocked
Trip ifThe risk/reward ratio at spot falls below 1.0x from the current 1.3x.