Value
7.6/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.4 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.02
- ▸Attractively valued
ONT · Why this verdict
Why Onterris (ONT) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Onterris shows extraordinary cash conversion and modest insider buying, but declining revenue keeps quality below the engine's floor, and the stock's rally looks technically overbought within a confirmed downtrend.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Onterris shows extraordinary cash conversion of 1000% FCF-to-net-income and a strong Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, despite having no identified competitive moat. Quality breakdown | FCF-to-net-income conversion stays above 300% while the Piotroski score holds at 6/9 or higher. | →Stable |
| CounterA cash-conversion ratio this extreme is likely distorted by a near-zero net income base and may not represent a repeatable, structural cash-generation advantage. | ||
Revenue is declining 5% year-over-year, consistent with the quality score sitting just below the engine's floor (3.8 vs 4.0). Growth breakdown | Revenue growth turns positive, exceeding 0% YoY, within the next two quarters. | Tripped→Stable |
| CounterA modest 5% revenue decline in a waste-management business could reflect a one-off contract loss rather than a structural demand problem. | ||
The stock is in an overbought bear rally with RSI at 78 while the underlying trend remains a confirmed downtrend, with the 200-day MA sloping down -6.5% over 30 days. Momentum breakdown | The stock reclaims the 200-day moving average with the MA slope turning positive. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA rising RSI alongside rising on-balance volume could mark the start of a genuine reversal rather than a bear-market rally that fails. | ||
The asymmetry ratio of 0.91 fails the engine's 1.5 minimum threshold, indicating upside of 13.7% is not sufficiently large relative to downside risk of 15.0%. Engine gate (failed) | The asymmetry ratio rises above 1.5 as upside expands relative to downside. | →Stable |
| CounterA borderline asymmetry failure of 0.9 vs 1.5 is close to the threshold and could flip positive with only a modest improvement in the price target or a small pullback in price. | ||
Modest insider buying of $610,003 (0.081% of market cap) provides a mildly bullish counter-signal to the otherwise weak quality and momentum picture. Insider breakdown | Insider buying activity continues or increases, exceeding $500,000 in the next 90-day window. | →Stable |
| CounterModest insider buys can be routine compensation-related purchases rather than a high-conviction signal about company prospects. | ||
Onterris shows extraordinary cash conversion of 1000% FCF-to-net-income and a strong Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, despite having no identified competitive moat.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF-to-net-income conversion stays above 300% while the Piotroski score holds at 6/9 or higher.
CounterA cash-conversion ratio this extreme is likely distorted by a near-zero net income base and may not represent a repeatable, structural cash-generation advantage.
Revenue is declining 5% year-over-year, consistent with the quality score sitting just below the engine's floor (3.8 vs 4.0).
Tripped→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth turns positive, exceeding 0% YoY, within the next two quarters.
CounterA modest 5% revenue decline in a waste-management business could reflect a one-off contract loss rather than a structural demand problem.
The stock is in an overbought bear rally with RSI at 78 while the underlying trend remains a confirmed downtrend, with the 200-day MA sloping down -6.5% over 30 days.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock reclaims the 200-day moving average with the MA slope turning positive.
CounterA rising RSI alongside rising on-balance volume could mark the start of a genuine reversal rather than a bear-market rally that fails.
The asymmetry ratio of 0.91 fails the engine's 1.5 minimum threshold, indicating upside of 13.7% is not sufficiently large relative to downside risk of 15.0%.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- The asymmetry ratio rises above 1.5 as upside expands relative to downside.
CounterA borderline asymmetry failure of 0.9 vs 1.5 is close to the threshold and could flip positive with only a modest improvement in the price target or a small pullback in price.
Modest insider buying of $610,003 (0.081% of market cap) provides a mildly bullish counter-signal to the otherwise weak quality and momentum picture.
→StableInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Insider buying activity continues or increases, exceeding $500,000 in the next 90-day window.
CounterModest insider buys can be routine compensation-related purchases rather than a high-conviction signal about company prospects.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.3 |
| Gross margin | 4.1 |
| Op margin | 1.4 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 7.0 |
| FCF quality | 5.4 |
| Moat | 3.2 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸FCF-positive but moderate margins (FCF margin 7%, FCF yield 10.4%)
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
0.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -20%
Momentum
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.9 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 1.7 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -8.0%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.5 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.2 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 25%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.5 |
| quality rank | 1.9 |
| growth rank | 1.3 |
Technical
1.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.6 |
| support resistance | 2.3 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 2.9 |
| days to cover | 4.6 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 3.9 |
| debt equity | 5.2 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸High IV: 126%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 6 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:5.9>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:0.6<1.5@spot
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.9>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
0.59
Upside
+8.8%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 61
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.5B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -53% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's 0.6<1.5@spot outcome against Value at 7.6 and asymmetric R:R of 0.59.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.6, Insider at 7.3, and Catalyst at 7.0; the weakest are Growth at 0.0, Technical at 1.6, and Quality at 3.1. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.59 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Extreme Cash Conversion
Trip ifFCF-to-net-income conversion falls below 300% from the current 1000%.
- P2Declining Revenue Quality GapTripped
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below -10% YoY from the current -5% pace.
- P3Overbought Bear Rally Risk
Trip ifRSI exceeds 80 for more than 3 consecutive weeks while the 30-day MA slope stays below -5%.
- P4Borderline Asymmetry Gate Fail
Trip ifThe asymmetry ratio falls below 0.5 from the current 0.91.
- P5Modest Insider Buying Signal
Trip ifInsider buying drops to $0 or turns to net selling that exceeds $200,000 in a 90-day window.