Value
7.8/10data confidence 60%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.8 |
| p ocf | 9.4 |
- ▸P/OCF: 6.2x (FFO proxy — REITs gated off P/E)
- ▸Attractively valued
OGCP · Why this verdict
Why Empire State Realty OP, L.P. (OGCP) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.1 |
| ROA | 1.4 |
| Gross margin | 6.5 |
| Op margin | 6.2 |
| Net margin | 3.9 |
| Current ratio | 5.5 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.2 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 389% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
1.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.7 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
Momentum
1.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 3.2 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 22, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
5.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.4 |
| quality rank | 4.3 |
| growth rank | 5.7 |
Technical
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.4 |
| support resistance | 8.9 |
| 52w position | 1.9 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 8.5 |
| beta | 5.4 |
| debt equity | 4.4 |
Catalyst
6.0/10data confidence 25%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| dividend safety | 6.0 |
- ▸Dividend: 270.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:1.6<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFALLING_KNIFE — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 22, MACD bearish
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — Beta 1.41>1.3, MCap $1.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 2.7 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 7.8) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:1.6<4.5, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.00 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.8, Risk (lower is worse) at 7.1, and Technical at 6.3; the weakest are Momentum at 1.6, Growth at 1.9, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.