Empire State Realty OP trades at an attractive P/OCF multiple of 6.8x with exceptional free cash flow conversion of 389% of net income, but the stock is in a confirmed downtrend with RSI indicating an overbought bear-rally condition, making the valuation case difficult to realize in the near term.
Thesis pillars
- Weak Growth Office Demand→Stable
- Attractive P Ocf Valuation→Stable
- Exceptional Fcf Conversion→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Mar 2, 2026
Empire State Realty OP, L.P. Se (OGCP) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup · Sector Rotation edge
Real Estate · REIT - Office
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $4.71: Concentration risk — Geographic: New York City; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3).
Empire State Realty OP, L.P. operates as a subsidiary of Empire State Realty Trust, Inc.
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $4.71: Concentration risk — Geographic: New York City; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 66. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/10 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicNew York City10-K Item 1A: 'Our commercial portfolio is comprised of properties in New York City.'
- MEDIUMPropertyEmpire State Building32%10-K Item 1A: 'three of our properties together accounted for approximately 55.6% of our portfolio's rental revenues, with the Empire State Building individually accounting for approximately 32.3%'
- LOWTenantfive largest tenants17%10-K Item 1A: 'our five largest tenants together represented approximately 17.4% of our total commercial portfolio's annualized rent'
- LOWPropertyretail tenants20%10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 20.1% of our commercial portfolio's annualized rent was comprised of retail tenants'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $4.71: Concentration risk — Geographic: New York City; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 66. Prior stop was $4.38. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Resistance target: $4.85 (+2.9% upside). Prior stop was $4.38. Stop-loss: $4.38.
Concentration risk — Geographic: New York City; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3); Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2.
Empire State Realty OP, L.P. Se trades at a P/E of 235.8 (forward N/A). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
What does Empire State Realty OP, L.P. Se do?Empire State Realty OP, L.P. operates as a subsidiary of Empire State Realty Trust,...
Empire State Realty OP, L.P. operates as a subsidiary of Empire State Realty Trust, Inc.